312
FNUS75 KSLC 101842
FWSSLC

Spot Forecast for New Canyon RX...USFS
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1142 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MST on November 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Dry stable conditions will continue under the influence of high
pressure centered over the west. This will result in poor
ventilation as winds aloft remain weak and thermal inversions stay
in place near the surface and lower elevations, limiting diurnal
mixing. Winds will be light and terrain drive Monday and Tuesday.
This pattern is slated to start changing by Wednesday ahead of an
approaching storm moving towards the west coast. On Wednesday,
ahead of this storm, southwest winds will start to increase and
become gusty. This will provide for better mixing and good
ventilation, however, relative humidity will stay on the lower
side as dry air blows over the area ahead of this storm that is
expected (70% chance) to deliver widespread precipitation late in
the week and into the weekend as it gets closer.

The timing and track of this storm remains uncertain as there are
two main scenarios that could play out. The first scenario (60%
chance of occurrence) brings a splitting trough into the west with
a cold front bringing widespread precipitation on Friday with the
core of the storm going through Arizona as a result of the split,
which would limit the precipitation duration and amounts
(generally 0.25"-0.75"). The second scenario (40% chance of
occurrence) doesn`t split the storm which would mean colder air
and more precipitation (1.00"+ of QPF). Regardless, snow levels
look to start around 9,000 feet and lowering to 5,000-7,000 feet,
depending on which scenario plays out. Current snow totals for
the location are between 3-6", but this will likely change in the
coming days as models converge on a preferred scenario. Moisture
lingers on Saturday, but drier air starts to filter in with
precipitation likely coming to an end by Saturday afternoon.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (65-75 percent cloud cover) then
                    becoming mostly cloudy (65-75 percent cloud
                    cover).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Chance of lightning.0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 50.
Min humidity........29-31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Terrain driven winds 5-8 mph.
Mixing height.......3600 ft AGL.
   Climatology......30-40th Percentile.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 16 mph.
Clearing index......500.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60 percent cloud cover).
CWR.................MISSING.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Chance of lightning.0 percent.
Min temperature.....36-38.
Max humidity........45-47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Terrain driven winds 5-10 mph.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 13 mph.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent cloud cover).
                    Chance of rain late in the afternoon.
CWR.................MISSING.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Chance of lightning.0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 50.
Min humidity........38-40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8-14 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph late
                    in the morning.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL.
   Climatology......30-40th Percentile.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 12 mph becoming southwest
                    around 23 mph in the afternoon.
Clearing index......1000+.

$$
Forecaster...Mahan
Requested by...Karson Sorenson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2525506.0/SLC
.DELDT 11/10/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kyler.hatch@usda.gov,ronald.sorenson@usda.gov