231
FXUS01 KWBC 240649
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
248 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Jul 24 2026 - 12Z Sun Jul 26 2026

...Risk of flash flooding expected from the central Plains to the
Carolinas near a stalled frontal boundary...

...Monsoonal thunderstorms continue over the Southwest and into
portions of the Intermountain West and Rockies...

...Hazardous heat continues over parts of the Southern Tier;
builds over the Great Basin and Northern Plains Friday...

The good news to report is that former Tropical Storm Bertha has
now dissipated over south-central Texas and is now just an open
trough as of early Friday morning, with just some scattered
showers and thunderstorms remaining over the region through the
morning hours. However, heavy rainfall and thunderstorms will
continue to be an issue for eastern portions of the Carolinas
going through Saturday given the proximity of a stalled out
frontal boundary with convergent low level flow. This will lead to
bad weather conditions for beach and boating interests through the
remainder of the week, and an increased threat of flash flooding
from thunderstorms that repeatedly develop over the same areas.

Heat will be making weather headlines across many areas of the
country as a large upper ridge becomes established from the
Intermountain West and extending eastward to include the Gulf
Coast region. The hottest conditions are expected across the lower
elevations of the Desert Southwest through Saturday with highs in
the 110s, and this will also be accompanied with some humidity to
produce heat indices near or slightly above the actual
temperatures across southern California and into southern Arizona.
Heat also builds across the western High Plains from central
Montana to the Dakotas through Saturday with widespread major Heat
Risk, and extreme heat warnings are already in effect for much of
central and eastern Montana. Heat and oppressive humidity will
remain persistent from the southern Plains to Florida as this
region will remain south of the stalled frontal boundary, with
highs well into the 90s and dewpoints well into the 70s.

Elsewhere across the country, a pleasant break from the summer
heat and humidity will exist across much of the Great Lakes into
the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic after a relatively strong
cold front passed through earlier in the week, bringing lower
dewpoints and a hint of fall for overnight low temperatures.
Monsoonal moisture in place across the Intermountain West and the
Rockies will fuel the development of daily afternoon and evening
convection, some of which could be locally heavy and result in
flooding across vulnerable locations. A Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms per the Storm Prediction Center is valid for Friday
across portions of North Dakota and into northern Minnesota ahead
of a shortwave trough.

Hamrick

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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