765
FXUS01 KWBC 152011
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Sep 16 2026 - 00Z Fri Sep 18 2026

...Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the Four
Corners, north-central Plains and into Missouri Valley over the
next few days...

...Record-challenging high temperatures continue across the
south-central U.S. through midweek...

A slow-moving front will remain the focus for showers and
thunderstorms across the north-central Plains and into the
Missouri Valley over the next couple of days. The most active
thunderstorms accompanied by heavy rainfall can be expected
through this evening from northeastern Kansas to northern Missouri
as a wave of low pressure develops and tracks along the front.
WPC maintains a moderate risk of excessive rainfall within this
general area through tonight where a few additional inches of
heavy rain can be expected.

Meanwhile, monsoonal moisture in place across the Four Corners
region will be lifted by an upper-level trough moving onshore into
the West Coast.  This weather pattern will bring repeated rounds
of showers and thunderstorms for the Four Corners for at least the
next few days. WPC has a slight risk of excessive rainfall
covering much of the Four Corners states through Thursday, with a
moderate risk over southern Arizona on Wednesday. Heavy downpours
associated with these thunderstorms could develop quickly,
resulting in flash flooding over highly localized areas.

As we get into mid-September, cooler air from Canada is beginning
to dip into the northern tier states, bringing cooler than normal
temperatures. Meanwhile, an upper-level high associated with the
persistent heat dome remains strong across the South, resulting in
a pronounced north-south temperature contrast. High temperatures
in the low 70s and upper 60s can be expected north of the
slow-moving front in the Central Plains and Midwest, compared to
upper 90s and triple-digit highs ahead of the front across the
Southern Plains and Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley. The western end
of the front is expected to lift back toward the north as a warm
front, which means that the hazardous heat is here to stay this
week across the South. In fact, high temperatures reaching into
the upper 90s to lower 100s will challenge daily records from the
Southern Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley where Heat
Advisories remain in effect.  Meanwhile, a stationary front on the
southern edge of the heat dome will move across the Florida
Peninsula, bringing daily downpours across much of the Sunshine
State, although excessive rainfall is not expected from this
activity.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php






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