823
FXUS01 KWBC 300737
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
336 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Sep 30 2026 - 12Z Fri Oct 02 2026

...There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Central Rockies/Central High Plains, Central
Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains on
Wednesday...

...There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Southern Plains on Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Southern Plains on Wednesday...

Meanwhile, upper-level energy and tropical moisture streaming
northward out of the Gulf into the Southern Plains and Central
Rockies/Central High Plains will produce showers and thunderstorms
with heavy rain over the region on Wednesday. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Southern Plains on Wednesday. Similarly, the WPC has
issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Central Rockies/Central High Plains and the Central
Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley for Wednesday. Numerous flash
flooding events are possible. In addition, many streams may flood,
potentially affecting larger rivers. The flooding may include
debris flows in or near recently burned areas.

Considerable flash flooding is possible across portions of the
Southern Plains and the Central Rockies/Central High Plains and
Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Locally,
considerable flash flooding impacts are also possible across the
broader Southern Plains. Locally, considerable flash and urban
flooding, along with river flooding, is possible across eastern
Nebraska into western Iowa on Wednesday. Flash, urban, and river
flooding impacts may also be possible starting Wednesday across
central Texas and southern Oklahoma. Widespread rainfall of 2-3
inches, with locally higher totals, is expected, with the heaviest
rain across the Southern Plains. Also, avoid travel through
already flooded and vulnerable areas. Be especially cautious at
night. If you encounter flooding while driving, turn around,
dont drown.

The threat of excessive rainfall continues into Thursday for the
Southern Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk
(level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains for Thursday. Numerous flash flooding events are possible.
In addition, many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger
rivers. The flooding may include debris flows in or near recently
burned areas.

On Friday, the threat of excessive rainfall will decrease
slightly. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4)
of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized flash flooding,
with urban areas, roads, small streams, and narrow canyons/gullies
the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over
parts of the Southern Plains on Wednesday. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Southern Plains on Wednesday.  The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Also, a cold front will move into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on
Wednesday and Thursday. Ahead of the boundary, rain with embedded
thunderstorms will move into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and
rain into the Lower Great Lakes on Friday. Elsewhere, showers and
thunderstorms will also develop along parts of the Florida Coast
and parts of the Central/Western Gulf Coast on Thursday into
Friday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php






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