764
FXUS01 KWBC 161848
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
247 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Valid 00Z Thu Jul 17 2025 - 00Z Sat Jul 19 2025

...Active thunderstorms, heavy rain, isolated flooding and severe
weather possible along a slow moving front from the Central Plains
into the Mid Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians
and Mid Atlantic...

...Slow moving low to bring heavy rainfall to the Central Gulf
Coast...

...Widespread major heat risk across the Lower Mississippi Valley,
Tennessee Valley and from the Southeast into southern New
England...

...Below average temperatures expected across the Northern to
Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley...

An active heavy precipitation pattern in several locations across
the CONUS over the next few days as the active summer 2025 weather
pattern continues in full force over the next few days.  A surface
frontal boundary currently stretching from the lee of the Central
Rockies into the Upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes will
continue to be the focus for numerous thunderstorms from late
Wednesday afternoon through Friday as this front slowly pushes
east southeastward.  Heavy rains, isolated flooding and isolated
severe weather likely late this afternoon into early this evening
across the Mid-West, Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic regions.
Thunderstorms, localized flooding and severe weather will then
become more organized overnight from eastern Colorado, eastward
into much of Kansas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region.
Additional thunderstorms are again likely Thursday afternoon into
Friday in a west to east axis from northeast New Mexico/Southeast
Colorado, eastward into the Central Plains, Mid Mississippi
Valley, Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians. Much above average
atmospheric moisture values in this west to east axis will support
additional localized very heavy rains and localized flooding.

A separate area of potentially heavy rains will continue to affect
the Central to Eastern Gulf coastal regions over the next two days
from southern Louisiana, eastward across far southern Mississippi,
far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.  This is in
association with a currently weak area of low pressure just off
the northeast Gulf coast.  This system is expected to move very
slowly westward Thursday and Friday, supporting the potential for
heavy rains and localized flooding along the Central Gulf Coast,
especially across more urbanized regions.  Please see the National
Hurricane Center`s Tropical Weather Outlook for additional
information on this system.

Temperature wise, big contrasts expected over the next two days
across the CONUS on either side of the above mentioned west to
east oriented frontal boundary.  On the north side of the front,
much below average temperatures Wednesday across the
Northern-Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley will persist
into Thursday, while also sinking southward toward the Southern
Plains and Mid Mississippi Valley.  In contrast, on the south side
of this front, much above average temperatures expected Thursday
from the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley
into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.  Major heat risks are
expected across much of these areas, with heat advisories
currently in effect, affecting over 70 million people.  While
temperatures are expected to be much above average across these
areas, there is not expected to be many record high maximum
temperatures over the next two days.  However, the much above
average atmospheric moisture values will support widespread record
high morning low temperatures Thursday and Friday morning from the
Southeast, Southern to Central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and into
southern New England.

Oravec

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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