131
FXUS01 KWBC 042001
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sat Oct 04 2025

Valid 00Z Sun Oct 05 2025 - 00Z Tue Oct 07 2025

...A storm system will bring mountain snow, locally heavy rain,
gusty winds and much cooler temperatures to portions of the
western and central U.S...

...Above average temperatures will advance eastward into the Great
Lakes and Northeast on Sunday and Monday...

...Remaining unsettled with scattered areas of heavy rain and
isolated flash flooding for the coastlines of the central Gulf and
Southeast...

A relatively strong upper level storm system will track eastward
from the central and northern Rockies tonight into the
north-central U.S. by Sunday morning. Colder temperatures
filtering in behind this storm system will allow for increasing
coverage of mountain snow from the higher terrain of western
Montana into northwestern/northern Wyoming. Accumulations of 6 to
12+ inches are expected, locally higher for higher elevations, but
snow levels will fall to into the 5000-6000 foot range for
portions of western Montana tonight, where lighter accumulations
are expected.

A corresponding surface low will track through the Great Plains
into northern Minnesota by early Sunday with a cold front
extending south and west. Much colder air will filter into the
northern Rockies and central to northern Plains as the cold front
moves through, marking 24 to 48 hour high temperature drops of 20
to 30 degrees. On the warm side of the cold front, after record
breaking heat on Saturday across the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes, above average temperatures will translate eastward into
portions of the Midwest and Northeast. High temperatures for
Sunday and Monday are expected to be roughly 10 to 20 degrees
above average from the north-central U.S. to the Northeast. While
the potential for record high temperatures will be lower for these
areas compared to Saturday over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes,
there could still be a few records that get broken from the middle
Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes into the Northeast.

Gusty winds will also accompany the storm as it tracks toward the
east with southerly winds gusting into the 30-50 mph range from
the central Plains into the Upper Midwest tonight. Winds will
lower but remain gusty into the Great Lakes and Midwest on Sunday.
By Sunday evening, thunderstorms are expected to break out along
the from from Kansas into Wisconsin and the U.P. of Michigan.
Severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain may result in spotty
flash flooding with these storms which will continue into Saturday
night.

A large ridge of high pressure over the East and quasi-stationary
front to its south, extending from the Bahamas into the Gulf of
America, will maintain unsettled weather from the central Gulf
Coast to the coastline of the the Southeast and Florida. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms, some with locally very heavy rain, will
remain in the forecast for these regions over the next 2 to 3
days. In addition, gusty winds may lead to concerns for mariners
and beachgoers, with rip currents and high surf possible.

Otto


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$