261
FXUS01 KWBC 100702
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Aug 10 2026 - 12Z Wed Aug 12 2026

...Mid-summer heat persists across much of the CONUS, with a few
record highs possible across the south-central High Plains...

...Severe thunderstorm and heavy rainfall threats shift eastward
into the Midwest, lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians over the next couple of days...

As we approach mid-August, a broad ridge of high pressure remains
dominant across the southern tier states especially over the Four
Corners. This pattern will maintain widespread above-normal
temperatures from much of the CONUS, with highs into the upper 90s
and triple digits across the south-central High Plains for the
next couple of afternoons. Along the periphery of the ridge, a
series of disturbances lifting out of the western Gulf will
support late-day showers and thunderstorms from parts of the
southern Plains and western Gulf Coast into the Southeast.
Monsoonal convection will also provide some localized relief from
the heat across the Southwest and Great Basin, but these storms
will pose a threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Farther
north, drier conditions will persist from parts of the Cascades
eastward to the northern High Plains, supporting continued
elevated fire weather concerns.

Meanwhile, a frontal boundary meandering across the north-central
U.S. will shift the focus for thunderstorms and attendant heavy
rainfall eastward into the Midwest, lower Great Lakes, and Ohio
Valley over the next few days. In addition, thunderstorms capable
of producing severe wind gusts will be possible from parts of
northern Illinois eastward into western Pennsylvania today, with
isolated severe gusts and hail also possible from portions of the
central and Northern Plains into the Midwest. This is in response
to a wave of low pressure sliding eastward along the meandering
front, aided by an upper-level impulse sliding eastward into the
Great Lakes, bringing possibly a few inches of rain with locally
higher somewhere within the corridor from the Midwest to the Ohio
Valley through Wednesday. The severe storm and heavy rain chances
are forecast to dip further south through West Virginia on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, cooler than normal temperatures will be experienced
across the northern Plains where low temperatures into the 50s are
forecast for the next couple of mornings near the Canadian border.
Cooler than normal highs into the lower to mid 90s are found over
portions of the Southwest and western Gulf Coast region where
daily showers/thunderstorms are expected.

Asherman/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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