


Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
432 FXUS01 KWBC 192046 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 445 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Valid 00Z Wed Aug 20 2025 - 00Z Fri Aug 22 2025 ...The expanding circulation of Hurricane Erin is expected to bring tropical storm conditions for the Outer Banks late Wednesday to Thursday... ...Life-threatening surf and rip currents will be churning up and down the East Coast through the next couple of days... ...Clusters of slow-moving thunderstorms will bring a threat of isolated flash flooding for the Southwest, and from across South to southern New England through the next couple of days, with a locally higher threat over the southern Appalachians into this evening... ...Hazardous heat across the Mid-South in expected to ease as heat begins to build over the Desert Southwest and over the northern High Plains... Hurricane Erin, currently tracking northwestward in the Atlantic to the east of the Bahamas, is forecast to pass not too far off to the east of North Carolina on Thursday. The circulation of Erin is forecast to expand considerably as the core of the hurricane tracks northward off the Southeast U.S., with the eye expected to pass not too far to the east of the Outer Banks Thursday morning. Tropical storm winds and squally showers associated with the outer rainbands of Erin are expected to impact the Outer Banks, together with a storm surge of up to 2-4 feet on Thursday. Given the expansive wind field, any further westward shift in the track of Erin will bring higher winds and stronger rainbands further into eastern North Carolina and farther up the Mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday. In addition, life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected to churn up and down the East Coast this week. Beach-goers should follow advice from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach warning flags, and if in doubt do not venture out. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast track and key messages pertaining to Hurricane Erin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along a dissipating frontal boundary that slowly dips across the coastal Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas southwest through Georgia and into the southern Appalachians, bringing locally heavy rainfall and some isolated instances of flash flooding through tonight. A cluster of slow-moving thunderstorms over the southern Appalachians will bring locally intense downpours and a greater risk of scattered flash flooding where a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is forecast into this evening. Another dissipating cold front stretching from the lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley southwest through the Mid-South and southern Plains will be associated with scattered thunderstorms that will gradually progress into the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England on Wednesday, and toward the Gulf Coast across the South on Thursday. Across the West, monsoonal moisture over portions of the Southwest will trigger some isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms through the next couple of days. Brief but heavy downpours will bring the threat for some isolated instances of flash flooding particularly along the more sensitive terrain of the local mountain ranges and any burn scars. Elsewhere, scattered afternoon thunderstorms can be expected Tuesday-Wednesday across Florida and along the Gulf Coast. Some isolated storms will accompany a passing frontal system across the northern High Plains on Thursday. After another day of very hot and muggy conditions across portions of the Mid-South and Southern Plains, a cold front will bring some relief for these areas on Wednesday, though temperatures will remain hot. An upper-level ridge building over the northern/central High Plains, Intermountain West, and Southwest will also bring above average, very hot temperatures. Highs will reach into the 90s and low 100s for most locations, with low 110s for the Desert regions of the Southwest. Heat Advisories are in effect across the northern High Plains through Wednesday where temperatures will be locally well above average, and Extreme Heat Warnings have been issued for the Desert Southwest beginning Wednesday. Much of the region will be under Moderate to Major Heat Risk (levels 2/3 of 4), indicating a level of heat that can affect anyone without access to adequate air conditioning or hydration, especially those more sensitive to heat. Meanwhile, a cold front has brought unseasonably cooler temperatures to the Northeast this week, with highs mainly in the 70s. Below average temperatures will also continue along the West Coast Tuesday as highs remain in the 60s and 70s along the coast and 80s inland. The building upper-ridge will begin to bring a warming trend by Wednesday. Elevated fire danger is forecast to emerge across the Great Basin and northern Rockies behind a cold front. Generally seasonable conditions can be expected across the Midwest, with highs in the 70s and 80s, and across the Southeast and Plains with highs into the 90s. Kong/Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$