486
FXUS62 KTAE 261904
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
304 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

- Elevated fire concerns are possible due to low humidity on
Sunday and Monday afternoons.

- The 90 degree highs aren`t done yet as there is a medium to high
(60 to 90%) chance of most of our area experiencing 90 degree heat
as early as Tuesday afternoon and lingering through at least Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through next Friday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

The combination of the nor`easter spinning off the northern Mid-
Atlantic coast and a strong area of high pressure over the Great
Lakes will keep the weather rather tranquil through at least Monday.
Beyond that, the high slides through the Mid-Atlantic and sets up
shop in the western Atlantic. This provides our area with an
easterly breeze and slowly increasing moisture Tuesday and
Wednesday. Rain chances inch up a bit to around 20% Wednesday
afternoon, mainly along the seabreeze. Abundant tropical moisture
gets pulled back into the area Thursday and Friday around a
developing H5 ridge over Florida. This will lead to higher rain
chances for the second half of the work week along with increasing
temperatures.

Forecast highs warm from the middle to upper 80s Sunday to near 90
Monday and back into the lower 90s Tuesday and beyond. Overnight
lows will follow a similar trajectory with lows in the middle 50s to
middle 60s the next few nights before rebounding back into the lower
70s by the second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Surface high pressure over the northeastern Gulf will provide light
to gentle westerly breezes starting tonight and lasting through
Monday. Southerly winds develop Tuesday and beyond as the high
scoots east of our area. Seas will generally run 2 feet or less. A
few showers and storms are forecast in the northeastern Gulf Monday
and Tuesday with better chances returning later in the work week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Near critical to critical RH values are forecast Sunday and Monday
as RH values drop to between 15 to 30 percent each afternoon.
Surface and Transport winds turn more northwesterly Sunday and
Monday afternoons at 5 to 10 mph. This may result in elevated fire
danger this weekend, especially in areas that have been dry
recently. Winds turn more southerly Tuesday and beyond, allowing
moisture to stream back into the region. Rain chances increase to
around 20% Wednesday, mainly along the seabreeze, before increasing
even more late next week.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

There are no flooding concerns through at least Wednesday. Thursday
and Friday will see moisture increase across the region, leading to
better shower and thunderstorm potential later in the work week.

Recent ensemble trends have shown a better opportunity for an inch
or more of rain across the wester Florida Panhandle into southern
Alabama with less rain the more you work back towards the I-75
corridor. We`ll continue to monitor these trends over the coming
days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   63  88  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   69  87  68  88 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        62  88  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        59  88  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      59  88  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    59  86  67  88 /   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  70  85  71  86 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Reese