131
FXUS62 KTAE 241326
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
826 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 823 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Patchy to dense fog will again have impacts to travel across the
  region through mid morning.

- Rain chances for Wednesday remain between 40-60%, with the
  highest chances across Southeast Alabama and the Florida
  Panhandle before tapering the more east you go.

- Fire Weather concerns increase Thanksgiving Day and Friday with
  low relative humidity and ongoing drought conditions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 823 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Dense fog continues this morning across much of the area outside
of southeast Alabama. The only change to the Dense Fog Advisory so
far has been to add Washington County as the fog bank moved into
the southern part of the county. The fog is beginning to break up
over the Suwannee Valley, but won`t make any cancellations just
yet for the Dense Fog Advisory. We`ll also monitor the fog in
Apalachee Bay as this is most likely to need extensions into the
afternoon with the sea fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 142 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

The forecast hasn`t changed much from previous forecast cycles.
Winds clock around to being southeasterly this afternoon then
southwesterly tomorrow ahead of our next frontal system Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Dew points surge back into the mid 60s to low
70s within the warm sector. Unfortunately, as mentioned in prior
forecasts, forcing for ascent looks to remain to our north. However,
we`ll be in the proximity of the right entrance region of the upper-
level jet streak. When coupled with a low level wind field around 20-
30 kts, we might be able to squeeze out a couple storms, but overall
conditions appear unfavorable at the synoptic scale. Mesoscale
diurnal instability maybe be able to overcome some of these limiting
factors, if we see mostly clear skies on Wednesday. However, if
we`re under extensive cloud cover, or dense fog that lasts well into
the late morning hours, then our chances of seeing storms would be
very low. Behind the front, we`ll see that low level wind field
remain over the area through Thursday. With surging dry air on
Thursday moving across the region we should see clear skies. Diurnal
mixing of the boundary layer could lead to surface gusts around 20-
25 mph. With dew points in the 20s Thursday afternoon and RH values
under 30%, these gusts could be particularly concerning with regard
to wildfire ignitions. Fire weather concerns will be elevated on
Thursday, listen to local officials regarding burn bans.

Overall, precip chances look better outside our area to the
northwest with a line of showers possibly approaching the region
throughout Wednesday. Diurnal forcing could allow this line to
advance through the region, or we could see the line begin to fall
apart once it starts crossing our SE Alabama and SW Georgia counties.

Behind the cold front we`ll see some cold temperatures to end the
week. Expect daytime highs in the first half of the week to
generally be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Post-frontal they`ll slide
down into the 60s. Overnight lows follow a similar trend, initially
in the upper 50s to mid 60s, they take a dive by the end of the
week, dropping into the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

An extensive swath of fog/low stratus continues to spread
westward towards the Apalachicola-Flint River basin early this AM
with affected sites reporting vsbys less than 1SM and cigs AOB 200
ft. This activity will impact VLD/TLH/ABY/ECP via VLIFR conds
over the next 2-3 hrs with improvements thereafter. Expect mainly
prevailing VFR this aftn with a lgt SE wind. Fog and low stratus
affects TLH/VLD after midnight thru sunrise tmrw as winds go calm.
Slightly higher winds at ECP/DHN look to only support low cigs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 142 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Another morning fog is ongoing over the nearshore waters of
Apalachee Bay. The long awaited cold front should finally push
through and clear that away by mid/late morning. Winds will clock
around to easterly by the early afternoon on Monday, at around 5-10
kts. Gentle to moderate southerly winds develop Tuesday ahead of an
incoming cold front that will bring a few showers and storms to the
northeastern Gulf on Wednesday. Northerly winds near Advisory level
develop following the front Wednesday night into Thanksgiving.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 142 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

High pressure over the area keeps us dry today. Southerly flow ahead
of an advancing cold front develops Tuesday. A few showers are
forecast Tuesday afternoon for the western Florida Panhandle and
western portions of southeastern Alabama before spreading eastward
Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of the cold front. Chances for a
wetting rain are medium to high (50-70 percent) for a line along and
west of Panama City, FL to Albany, GA and low to medium (10-50
percent) east of that line with lower chances the more south and
east you go. Much drier air filters in behind the front for
Thanksgiving Day and Friday, sending MinRH values to between 15-25
percent away from the immediate coast. There is a low (10 percent)
chance of winds exceeding 15 mph Thursday, so there is the potential
for Critical Fire Weather conditions on Thanksgiving; of course,
that will largely depend on how much rain there is Tuesday night
into Wednesday and where it falls.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 142 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Rainfall amounts across the region will generally be around half an
inch or less through Saturday. This mostly applies to our northwest
areas in SE Alabama and SW Georgia. Rain amounts quickly drop to
around 0.05 inches as you head south and east from there.

As of Thursday, November 19, 2025, the US Drought Monitor now has
the area around the Florida-Georgia state line outlined in
Exceptional Drought (D4), which is the highest category on the
drought monitor. This is the first time since the 2011-2012 winter
that any part of our area of responsibility has been outlined in
Exceptional Drought.

For more information on local impacts from drought, please visit
www.weather.gov/LocalDrought.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   79  60  80  64 /   0   0   0  20
Panama City   77  64  78  66 /   0  10  20  50
Dothan        79  60  81  64 /   0  10  10  60
Albany        79  59  83  64 /   0   0  10  40
Valdosta      79  58  83  62 /   0   0   0  10
Cross City    82  58  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  73  65  76  66 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
     FLZ010>019-027>029-034-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426.

GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ123>131-
     143>148-155>161.

AL...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
     GMZ730-735-755-765.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Oliver