438
FXUS62 KTAE 041131
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
631 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 625 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

- Widespread rainfall totals of 1" to 4" are possible, with higher
  amounts forecast along and north of a line from near Panama
  City, FL to Valdosta, GA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 250 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

The first wave of rain is currently in Louisiana this morning,
trudging along the northern Gulf coast. However, we`re very dry
aloft with satellite derived precipitable water values (PWATs)
hovering between 0.6" to 0.9" across the region, so it`ll take a bit
of time to saturate the column to allow rain to reach the ground.
Rain will move from west to east across the area later this morning
into the afternoon and keep temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s
this afternoon for much of the area outside of the Florida Big
Bend, where you`ll bask in the upper 60s to near 70 as the rain is
not forecast to reach y`all today.

The subtle H5 shortwave providing today`s rain is forecast to scoot
northeast of the area later this afternoon into tonight and is
expected to bring a bit of a break from the rain. As such, have
elected to lower rain chances tonight from the NBM and go with more
of an HREF/NBM blend for POPs. A warm front crawls north later
tonight as a weak surface low inches closer to us. Combine this
with ample cloud cover and temperatures are forecast to hover in
the upper 40s to near 50 much of the night, especially for our
Florida counties, before warming before sunrise Friday. Rain
chances will increase in the pre-dawn hours Friday as the surface
low approaches.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Several waves of rain move over the region through the weekend. A
few thunderstorms are forecast for Friday, mainly across our
Florida counties, as an area of low pressure meanders through. The
heaviest rain for much of the area is forecast to happen late
Saturday into Sunday as another disturbance rolls overhead. A cold
front pushes all of the rain out of the area on Monday.

As mentioned in the short term discussion, an area of low pressure
inches closer to our area Friday and move inland as it slowly
weakens. There`s a brief window for a few thunderstorms, one or
two may be strong, thanks to ample shear and some elevated
instability; the best opportunity for that will be along the
immediate coast into the Florida Big Bend. While the highest
chances for thunderstorms are across our Florida counties, a few
may make it into some of our southern Alabama and Georgia counties
depending on how far inland the surface low is able to make it.

Rain continues Friday night into Saturday, especially for our
Georgia and Alabama counties, as the aforementioned surface low
leaves a stalled front nearby in the northeastern Gulf/northern
Florida. Another weak surface low rides along the stalled front
Saturday into Sunday and provide additional lift for even more rain,
maybe a rumble of thunder or two along the coast. PWATs of 1.6" to
1.8" are forecast over the region and are near record values for
early December. The mean LCL-EL wind direction will be about 230-240
degrees, or about parallel to the front. Add in the weak surface low
and some of the rain may be locally heavy Saturday night into
Sunday. A solid 1" to 3" of rain is forecast during this time period
alone with a 10% chance of exceeding 4 inches in a 24 hour period
from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon. This could lead to
localized flooding concerns, especially if storm drains get clogged
by any debris/leaves.

By the time all is said and done, widespread rainfall totals of 1"
to 4" are currently expected with the lower amounts across the SE
Florida Big Bend and generally 2" to 4" elsewhere. There is a low
(10%) chance of isolated rainfall amounts exceeding 6" over the next
few days.

A cold front clears the area on Monday, taking the rain with it.
Cooler temperatures await us early next week with lows back in the
30s Tuesday and Wednesday morning and daytime highs struggling to
get out of the 50s with ample sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Light rain is slightly ahead of schedule, so upped the timing of
the rain for KECP, KDHN, and KABY this morning. Heavier radar
returns are bringing brief IFR ceilings to sites that experience
them, but confidence wasn`t high enough that they`d impact any of
our TAF sites this morning, so kept TEMPO groups out of the TAFs
for now.

Otherwise, VFR to MVFR conditions are anticipated as light rain
spreads across the region. Hi-res guidance is suggesting another
batch of rain across the KTLH and KVLD aerodromes later this
afternoon. Slightly drier conditions are forecast later tonight
into early Friday morning, but clouds hold tough. Felt most
confident in IFR ceilings for KABY and KDHN and included some
drizzle in case the batch of rain forecast for central AL/GA
tonight ends up a bit farther south than forecast. Also, there is
a very low chance (less than 10%) of some fog for KVLD tonight
after 06Z. Decided to leave that out of the TAFs with this package
as confidence wasn`t nearly high enough, but felt it`s worth
mentioning here for planning purposes.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Easterly winds today increase to Cautionary levels for the Gulf
waters west of Apalachicola. Winds clock around to the south on
Friday as an area of low pressure moves across the northern Gulf
Coast with Cautionary level winds anticipated for the Gulf waters.
Multiple rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast
through the weekend as a stationary front lingers over the
northeastern Gulf. A cold front swings through the northeastern Gulf
on Monday, bringing an end to the rain. Northerly winds develop
behind the cold front and near Advisory levels for the Gulf waters
west of Apalachicola.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Rain arrives from west to east throughout the day today with
multiple rounds of rain forecast Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
Dispersions will remain low through the weekend before a cold front
clears the rain out of the forecast later Sunday into Monday.
Rainfall amounts on the order of 1 to 4 inches are forecast for much
of the region, with the lower amounts anticipated across the SE
Florida Big Bend and higher amounts the more north and west you go
from there. There is a low (10%) chances of localized rainfall
amounts exceeding 6 inches if the right conditions align.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 250 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

The first of multiple rounds of rain arrives later today. Additional
rounds are forecast Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. The time period to
watch for the heaviest rain continues to be Saturday into Sunday.

Widespread rainfall totals of 1" to 4" are forecast across much of
the region through the weekend with lower-end amounts for the
southeast Florida Big Bend. There is a very low (less than 10%)
chance of isolated locations picking up more than 6 inches of rain
between now and Sunday night.

Fortunately, the riverine flood threat is rather low at this time as
much of the rain falling across Alabama and Georgia should be more
stratiform in nature and very beneficial. Meanwhile, a few
convective downpours are forecast across Florida, mainly along and
south of I-10, and could lead to localized flash flooding should
they train over our more urban areas.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   55  50  71  53 /  60  60  90  60
Panama City   56  50  71  53 /  70  50  90  70
Dothan        49  45  57  48 /  90  60  90  80
Albany        50  45  57  48 /  80  60 100  80
Valdosta      54  48  70  51 /  50  40  90  70
Cross City    70  52  77  58 /  10  10  50  50
Apalachicola  63  54  73  57 /  50  40  80  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Reese