446
FXUS62 KTAE 031359
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
859 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 858 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

- Medium to high (50 to 80%) chances for rain are in the forecast starting
  late Thursday morning through at least Saturday night.

- Widespread rainfall totals of 1" to 4" are possible through the
  weekend, with higher amounts forecast along and north of a line
  from near Panama City, FL to Fitzgerald, GA.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 858 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Forecast is on track this morning. No updates required.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 203 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Today`s forecast will largely depend on how long the stratus deck
following the cold front lingers. Most guidance suggests it lingers
through at least mid-morning for much of the area, but may stick
around into the early afternoon hours. Temperatures will largely
depend on how long the aforementioned cloud deck lingers. As of now,
have forecast highs ranging from the middle to upper 50s across
Alabama and Georgia to near 60 across much of Florida outside of the
SE FL Big Bend, where they`ll see temperatures in the middle to
upper 60s.

High clouds begin streaming in from the west later tonight ahead of
our next storm system, which will be talked about in greater detail
in the long term section below. Surface high pressure is forecast to
be nearby tonight, allowing for calmer winds. However, the high
clouds could throw a wrench into overnight lows, which are currently
forecast to dip into the middle 30s across GA and AL to the upper
30s to lower 40s across FL. If the clouds are a bit slower to
arrive, we could shave a few degrees off those temperatures, which
could lead to some spots below freezing Thursday morning, especially
in locations most efficient at radiational cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 203 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Several waves of rain are forecast across the Southeast Thursday
through the weekend. There remains some uncertainty with where the
axis of heaviest rain will fall. A cold front is forecast to move
through Monday, taking the rain with it.

Our area will be sandwiched between an H5 ridge across the Florida
Straits and a trough to the northwest of us. This promotes
southwesterly flow aloft and will keep the storm track very near, if
not right over, the region. Add in our area being over the right
entrance region of an upper-level jet and it all points to a rainier
pattern for the first weekend of December.

The first wave of rain is forecast to arrive as a subtle shortwave
within the mean H5 flow ripples overhead during the day Thursday.
Very dry air in place will have to be overcome Thursday morning
before rain finally starts to fall. Most guidance suggests this
happening by Thursday afternoon for areas along and northwest of a
line from Panama City, FL to Adel, GA with a few light
showers/sprinkles forecast more to the south and east of that line,
which is farther from the H5 shortwave.

Another subtle H5 perturbation moves over the Southeast Friday, but
this one is forecast to be a bit more north than Thursday`s. That`s
important as a weak area of low pressure is forecast to develop and
move inland over our area. This opens the door for a warm sector to
advect inland during the day Friday and could lead to a few stronger
storms, especially along and south of I-10. Ample speed shear is
forecast over the area with fair straight hodographs and bulk shear
in excess of 40-50 knots. However, as is usual this time of year,
surface instability is lacking with CAPE values generally between
200-500 J/kg. Still, Friday afternoon into Friday night is a time
period to watch for stronger storms.

More rain is anticipated Saturday into Sunday as a sharper H5
shortwave moves toward the region. Combine this with the proximity
of the right entrance region of the upper-level jet and precipitable
water values (PWATs) near 1.6-1.8", or nearing the max levels for
early December, and this time period has the potential for picking
up the most rain.

By the time a cold front swings through on Monday, widespread
rainfall totals of 1" to 4" are forecast across the region. Locally
higher totals are possible, especially if the axis of heavy rain is
over the same area for all of the aforementioned rounds. A
reasonable worst case, or 10% chance of happening, has as much as 6"
of rain falling between Thursday morning and Monday afternoon.

To be honest, temperatures throughout this period have lower
confidence than usual thanks to the waves of rain in the forecast.
Overall, lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s are forecast Thursday night,
Friday night, and Saturday night. Daytime highs in the 50s and 60s
are forecast Thursday before warming to the upper 50s to near 70
Friday. More 50s and 60s are forecast Saturday and Sunday before the
cold front moves through. This pushes lows back into the 40s for
everyone Sunday night and the upper 20s to middle 30s Monday night;
daytime highs will remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s, but, this
time, with a good amount of sunshine and a brisk northerly breeze.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 858 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

A stratus deck is entrenched over the area and is not anticipated
to go anywhere the rest of tonight into Wednesday morning. MVFR
to IFR ceilings prevail through at least mid-morning at most TAF
sites with some potential of them lingering into early Wednesday
afternoon. VFR conditions are forecast once the stratus deck lifts
out. Otherwise, light to moderate northerly winds are anticipated
through the TAF period. A few high clouds begin entering from the
west near the end of the TAF period and signify our next storm
system for Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Favorable marine conditions are expected through tonight. A
tightening pressure gradient brings easterly to northeasterly winds
to near Cautionary levels west of Apalachicola Thursday. Southerly
winds are forecast Friday as an area of low pressure meanders along
the northern Gulf Coast with the potential for Advisory level winds
Friday into Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 203 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

High pressure combined with ample low-level moisture and an
inversion will keep dispersions low today and again Thursday. Rain
chances increase from west to east during the day Thursday with a
couple rounds of rain anticipated again Friday and Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 203 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Several rounds of rain are forecast Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.
By the time a cold front swings through later this weekend,
widespread rainfall totals of 1" to 4" are forecast, with higher
totals anticipated along and north of a line near Panama City, FL
to Fitzgerald, GA. The lower end of the rainfall amounts are
currently forecast across the Florida Big Bend and into south-
central Georgia.

Fortunately, the riverine flood threat is rather low at this time as
much of the rain falling across Alabama and Georgia should be more
stratiform in nature and very beneficial. Meanwhile, a few
convective downpours are forecast across Florida, mainly along and
south of I-10, and could lead to localized flash flooding should
they train over our more urban areas.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   59  41  59  49 /   0   0  40  50
Panama City   60  45  58  49 /   0  10  60  60
Dothan        55  37  52  45 /   0  10  70  80
Albany        54  34  54  45 /   0   0  60  70
Valdosta      58  36  60  47 /   0   0  40  40
Cross City    67  41  69  51 /   0   0  10  20
Apalachicola  61  49  62  52 /   0   0  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Reese