082
FXUS62 KTAE 220221
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
921 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 921 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

 - Dense fog is anticipated again tonight, mainly across the
   Florida Big Bend and far south Georgia, with impacts to travel
   through mid to late Saturday morning.

 - Drought persists and/or worsens with little to no rain and
   unseasonably warm temperatures expected through early next
   week.

- There is a low to medium (20-40%) chance for rain Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 921 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Fog continues to be the main concern through Saturday morning.
Satellite imagery shows an expanding area of low stratus from the
Forgotten Coast inland across the FL Big Bend region, as well as
over Walton County. Surface obs and web cameras do not yet show
fog, except perhaps around Tyndall and Mexico Beach. Overall, the
clouds will gradually lower over the next few hours, eventually
settling the ground and producing fog overnight.

One inhibiting factor that we did not have last night is
development of a 20-35 knot southwesterly low-level jet in advance
of the front that will arrive on Saturday. This will keep low
clouds a bit more stirred up tonight. So fog will be more confined
where the low-level jet is weaker. This will generally be along
and east/southeast of U.S. 231 corridor in Florida and the
Chattahoochee Valley to the north. Since fog has not yet formed,
will let the midnight shift kick off the next round of Dense Fog
Advisories. Highest confidence in dense fog will be along and
south of a Tallahassee-Valdosta line.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 141 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Fog remains the main story again tonight ahead of a cold front
forecast to swing through Saturday afternoon and evening. Ahead of
the front, locally dense fog is anticipated, especially across the
Florida Big Bend later tonight into Saturday morning. Fog remains
possible elsewhere, but it`ll largely depend on how much cloud cover
moves overhead from the west tonight.

Speaking of cloud cover, a stray shower or two is possible from
those clouds Saturday afternoon. Granted, it`s only about a 20%
chance, but it`s better than the zero we`ve had for a while now.
Looking optimistically, it`s worth noting that today`s showers
across Alabama have been a bit more widespread than previously
thought, so that gives some credence to increasing rain chances to
around 20% during the day Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 141 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

A weak cold front swings clears the region Saturday night. This
shaves temperatures a degree or two, which puts much of the area
closer to 80 for afternoon highs as opposed to the mid-80s.
Overnight lows, though, will tumble back into the upper 40s and
lower 50s as drier air works into the region. Another cold front
approaches the region Wednesday, bringing with it an opportunity for
rain! Cooler temperatures are in the works behind the cold front for
Thanksgiving with forecast temperatures closer to normal for late
November with highs near 70 Thanksgiving afternoon and lows near 40
Thanksgiving night.

Aloft, an H5 ridge axis extending from the northwestern Gulf into
the the Central Plains will mosey east Sunday into the first half of
next week. This keeps our area dry and warm Sunday, Monday, and
Tuesday. A longwave trough dives out of Canada and swings across the
Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday and will push the H5 ridge far
enough south to allow for a cold front to near our area sometime
Wednesday. There remains some question as to the ultimate evolution
of this system, so kept rain chances generally between 20-40% this
far out, with the highest chances across SE Alabama and lesser
chances across the FL Big Bend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

The low-level air mass is moist and stable. Light southerly flow
will become more southwesterly through tonight. Meanwhile, surface
dewpoints are in the lower 60s, which is pretty ideal for low
cloud and fog formation and expansion as we move through this
evening and overnight.

Web cameras have already been showing expanding coverage of IFR
stratus along the coast south of TLH. This will spread inland over
the next few hours, first as a low stratus deck, eventually
lowering to fog overnight.

The turn to light southwest flow will also be more favorable for
low stratus and fog at VLD by bringing fog inland from the cool
waters of Apalachee Bay.

Elsewhere at ECP, DHN, and ABY, there is good confidence related
to IFR cigs developing late tonight, but an increase in SW flow
will help keep the clouds stirred enough to perhaps not settle on
the ground as dense fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 921 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Pockets of dense fog are likely to form early Saturday morning
over the cooler nearshore waters, especially the waters along the
Nature Coast. Light to gentle southwesterly breezes will continue
through tonight before turning westerly to northwesterly Saturday
into Saturday night following a cold front. Winds will gradually
shift out of the east by Monday then southerly and increasing to
moderate on Tuesday ahead of the next cold front. Seas remain
favorable at around 1 to 3 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 141 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Southwesterly Transport Winds turn more westerly during the day
Saturday as a cold front clears the area. An isolated shower or two
is possible along the front as it moves from northwest to southeast
across the region Saturday afternoon. Mixing heights of 2-3k ft are
forecast the rest of this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon
before increasing to 4-5k ft following the front Sunday afternoon.
MinRH values of 50-60 percent are forecast Saturday afternoon before
dropping to between 35-40 percent Sunday and Monday afternoons.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 141 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

There are low (20%) chances for rain Saturday and low-medium (20-
40%) chances Wednesday. That said, little rainfall is expected for
the next 7 days across the area. Even our reasonable high-end totals
for the next 7 days are around 0.50-1.0 inches, which will
unfortunately not alleviate the drought situation.

As of Thursday, November 19, 2025, the US Drought Monitor now has
the area around the Florida-Georgia state line outlined in
Exceptional Drought (D4), which is the highest category on the
drought monitor. This is the first time since the 2011-2012 winter
that any part of our area of responsibility has been outlined in
Exceptional Drought.

For more information on local impacts from drought, please visit
www.weather.gov/LocalDrought.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   62  82  62  81 /   0  20   0   0
Panama City   66  79  62  78 /  20  20   0   0
Dothan        64  82  57  78 /  20  20  10   0
Albany        62  82  57  78 /  10  20   0   0
Valdosta      60  82  60  80 /   0  10   0   0
Cross City    56  81  61  82 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  66  76  63  76 /   0  20   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Reese