780
FXUS62 KTAE 032318
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
718 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

The forecast is on track with minimal changes made.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 101 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Shower chances increase by Saturday with a slight chance of thunder
during the afternoon as gusty East-Northeast winds continue. For the
remainder of today, spotty shower chances will be confined to the FL
Big Bend as radar indicates light echoes propagating westward with
PWATs struggle to break the 1.5 inch mark. As low to mid-level flow
becomes more East-Southeast on Saturday, shower chances increase
generally from the Flint River Valley east and in the FL Counties,
along with a slight chance of thunder given the meager instability.
East-Northeast winds remain gusty around 20 to 25 mph through the
period, with lows in the mid-60s and highs in the mid-80s, which is
close to normal. The Rip Current Risk is forecast to remain High
along the Franklin and Walton County coast, and may tick up along
the Bay County coast as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 101 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

The pattern becomes more complex as a weak cutoff low over the
Bahamas moves westward and eventually is absorbed into a broader
cutoff low in the lower MS Valley by early next week with the
mid-level flow becoming southerly. Meanwhile closer the surface,
a wedge of high pressure remains to the lee of the Appalachians,
with a tendency for some drier air within easterly flow, while a
stalled front remains over the Gulf. This will promote lift via
overrunning of an air mass characterized by PWATs approaching or
exceed the 90th percentile (1.9 inches) per ensembles on Sunday
and Monday. Expect showers with embedded heavier downpours and a
chance of thunderstorms as instability increases. Cannot rule out
an isolated strong storm on Sunday and Monday or even on Tuesday,
mainly in the FL Counties. Meanwhile, there is a low 10% chance
of tropical development in the Northeast Gulf w/aforementioned
frontal boundary that will likely linger into the middle of the
week. Regardless of development, rough marine conditions and a
high rip current risk will likely continue into midweek. It will
feel increasingly humid this weekend into next week with highs
in the 80s and warm overnight lows due to cloud cover keeping
temperatures generally above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 715 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail through the TAF
period; a brief period of MVFR ceilings are possible early
Saturday morning. Moderate to breezy east- northeasterly winds
are forecast through the TAF period with some gusts in the 20-25
knot range again Saturday afternoon again for all TAF sites. A few
showers are possible near the end of the TAF period for KTLH,
KVLD, and KECP, so some VCSH was included to highlight that
potential.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 101 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

A prolonged period of Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue
into Sunday across the coastal waters due a tight pressure gradient
between high pressure to our north and a stalled front to our south.
East-Northeast winds of 20 to 30 knots and significant wave heights
rapidly increasing just offshore to 5 to 8 feet, highest to the west
of the Ochlockonee River. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
increase as the front lifts north over the weekend with waterspouts
possible. While easterly winds relax some Monday, periods of winds
around 15 to 20 knots may linger thru midweek, which would promote
elevated seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 101 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Strong East to Northeast transport winds of 15-20 mph will continue
each day through the weekend. When combined with mixing heights of
4,000 to 5,000 on Saturday, pockets of high dispersion are likely in
the afternoon, with otherwise good dispersion. Slightly lower mixing
heights around 4,000 feet on Sunday are expected to promote good
dispersion. Shower coverage will increase over the weekend and a few
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as well. The highest chance for a
wetting rain comes Sunday with about a 50/50 chance. Min RH values
will rise each afternoon through the weekend. The gusty winds and
drying fuels may lead to some elevated fire weather concerns over
the next couple days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 101 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Chances for showers and storms increase through the weekend. With
PWATs increasing to the 90th percentile over the weekend, some
locally heavy downpours may occur, especially Sunday and Monday.
Most likely rainfall totals are around 1 inch near the I-75
corridor and Suwannee River to 0.5 over the Central Time Zone
counties. However, the reasonable high-end totals (90th
percentile) are around 1.5-2.5 inches over the eastern Big Bend
and I-75 corridor. This shouldn`t cause widespread flood concerns
given the ongoing drought across the area. This rain would be more
beneficial than problematic.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   67  85  71  86 /   0  20  10  60
Panama City   68  86  71  85 /  10  20  30  60
Dothan        64  84  69  84 /   0  10  10  50
Albany        64  84  69  86 /   0  20   0  50
Valdosta      66  84  70  85 /   0  30   0  60
Cross City    68  86  71  86 /   0  30  10  60
Apalachicola  69  83  73  83 /  10  30  40  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Saturday for FLZ108.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Sunday for GMZ730-
     751-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Young