859
FXUS62 KTAE 301758
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
158 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

A corridor of clearing skies has developed this afternoon between
US-84 and I-10, resulting in temperatures warming into the low and
mid-80s. Greater cloud cover and showers to the north is holding
temps in the lower and middle 70s into Southeast AL and Southwest
GA. Meanwhile, guidance indicates a stationary front along/south
of the Gulf coast making northward progress today but remaining
south of the I-10 corridor. Water vapor imagery also indicates a
mid-level shortwave traversing the region within northwest flow
aloft. Compared to last night, hi-res guidance has increased the
coverage of diurnal convection this afternoon and evening, mainly
east of US-231 and south of US-84 to the coast. In this area, the
differential heating/front in association w/the shortwave should
maximize lift, within an environment characterized by PWAT of 2.0-
2.2 inches (exceeding the 90th percentile) and where instability
will also maximize with SB CAPE of 1-2k J/kg. The main concern is
heavy rainfall leading to nuisance flooding concerns, although
isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out where 3-5"/hour rain
rates train over the same area, as storm motions will be east
around 20 mph. In addition, Bulk Shear (0-6 km) is around 30 kts,
soundings indicate some drier mid-level air, and lapse rates
(0-3 km) will be steepening, so an isolated thunderstorm wind
gust of 40-50 mph is possible.

Showers and thunderstorms dissipate by midnight. For tonight,
drier air in the mid and upper-levels advects into the region.
Meanwhile, weak low pressure ripples along the stationary front
just offshore. This advects greater low-level Atlantic moisture
westward, especially between US-84 and I-10, where patchy fog
should be at a minimum late tonight into Sunday morning. But
to the north and south of aforementioned area, the pattern will
favor patchy fog again.

On Sunday, any fog should dissipate between 8 AM and 10 AM ET.
A drier air mass advects into the region with  moderate 850 hPa
northeast flow as a high pressure ridge wedges to the lee of
the Appalachians into the region. This will pin the seabreeze
closer to the coast, as it will struggle to make it inland.
PWATs greater than 1.5 inches will be confined to the lower
I-75 corridor of GA and roughly I-10 south in FL. This will
keep the highest PoPs confined closer to the Forgotten Coast
and Southeast FL Big Bend Sunday afternoon and evening with
diurnally driven convection, which will tend to initiate later
due to the delayed seabreeze, if it makes it inland at all
in some areas. Highs ranging from the upper 80s south of I-10
to the low 80s north of GA-62. Partly sunny skies, northeast
breeze around 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph, and dew points
lowering into the mid and upper 60s away from the Gulf coast
will make for a pleasant day.


&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Mid-level troughing is forecast to camp out over the eastern CONUS
throughout the next week or so with a few embedded shortwaves
occasionally passing over the region. These impulses will help
push a stalled frontal boundary currently near the coast
further south over the Gulf and away from our area over a few
days. While some showers and storms will still be possible, for
the most part they should be limited to closer to the coast with
offshore flow in place. While portions of the coast are still
outlooked in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall Monday and
Tuesday, underperformance of forecast rainfall so far this
weekend seems to indicated a more limited threat. However, a few
pockets of heavier rainfall will still be possible. High temps
should be closer to seasonable, ranging from the mid 80s to low
90s with lows in the 60s inland and low 70s near the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

MVFR cigs are in the process of lifting across the terminals as
of early this afternoon with a gradual return to VFR expected.
Expect SHRA/TSRA at TLH late this afternoon and evening with a
PROB30 at VLD. Elsewhere, scattered showers. The next round of
restrictions in terms of low cigs/vsbys is expected overnight
into Sunday morning, with higher confidence in more pessimistic
guidance compared to the past couple of mornings as weak low
pressure moves south of the terminals advecting addt`l Atlantic
moisture westward. In general, all terminals will go down to
MVFR cigs with a brief period of IFR cigs around sunrise, with
the exception of ECP where MVFR is expected to be the minimum.
In addition, the contribution of fog is expected to be greater
at ABY/DHN with brief IFR; cannot be ruled out at TLH either.
While any fog lifts Sunday morning, the terminals are expected
to be shrouded in MVFR cigs through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Generally favorable marine conditions are expected this weekend as
a stationary boundary meanders in or south of the marine zones.
The boundary will be the culprit of marine showers and storms
which may locally increase winds and seas around heavier
convection. Light winds Saturday will transition to northeast
winds Sunday into midweek as high pressure strengthens to the
north. This could lead to periods of cautionary conditions,
especially in waters west of Apalachicola. The frontal boundary
moves east Wednesday with winds decreasing while switching out of
the northwest.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

After fairly widespread wetting rains, a drying trend begins to
commence on Sunday with afternoon and evening showers and thunder
storms confined to the I-75 corridor of FL and the FL Big Bend.
On Monday, any showers and storms should be mainly south of I-10
in the afternoon and evening. Moderate East-Northeast transport
winds will be in place thru early next week with mixing heights
away from the coast topping out around 5,000 feet. This promotes
pockets of high afternoon dispersion across inland regions on
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 137 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

The entire area is in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
today, shifting south into the Big Bend and south of I-10 Sunday
into the early part of the upcoming work week. North of I-10 over
the next few days, around an inch of rainfall in spots can be
expected while areas along and south of I-10, generally amounts of
1-3 inches could occur. These heavier amounts appear to favor
coastal locations and portions of the Florida panhandle. Where
heavier amounts fall, nuisance-type flooding of poor drainage,
low-lying, or urban areas may occur.

Area rivers are below flood stage at the present moment. The
Sopchoppy and St Marks would be the most vulnerable to reach
action stage should several inches of rainfall accumulate in or
around their basins.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   72  86  70  85 /  40  30  10  20
Panama City   72  87  71  88 /  30  20  10  20
Dothan        68  84  67  84 /  10  10   0  10
Albany        70  85  67  84 /   0  10   0  10
Valdosta      70  85  68  85 /  20  40   0  10
Cross City    72  88  71  88 /  30  70  10  40
Apalachicola  74  85  72  85 /  40  50  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Scholl