205
FXUS62 KTAE 071023
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
623 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 622 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

- Dangerous heat index values in excess of 107 degrees are
  forecast this afternoon over the eastern Florida Panhandle and
  the southwest corner of Georgia. Stay hydrated, take cooling
  breaks, and avoid working in direct sunlight during the hot
  afternoon hours.

- Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast each day
  for the next 7 days. The greatest chance will come during the
  afternoon and early evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

A cluster of strong thunderstorms will soon exit southwest off the
coast and into the Gulf, leaving behind quite a bit of rain-cooled
air. Where enough clearing occurs before sunrise, patchy fog would
develop.

Satellite-derived PW imagery shows a very moist air mass across
the region, with values in the 2.1 to 2.2 inch range. North of our
service area over Central Georgia, values are a less moist 1.5 to
1.8 inches.

Meanwhile, as surface high pressure moves today from the Great
Lakes to the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region, the southern periphery will
bridge southwest through South Georgia today, then into SE Alabama
and our Florida counties this evening, reaching the Gulf early
Tuesday morning. 1000-700 mb layer flow will respond by turning
northeast to easterly today, bringing some of the somewhat drier
air over Central Georgia a little further south through Georgia.
Otherwise, with a very moist air mass still in place and a
frontal-like wind shift making its way southwest across the
region, there will be no problem getting additional showers and
thunderstorms developing during the heat of the afternoon.

Otherwise, the air mass will be uncommonly hot and muggy for
early September in advance of the northeast wind shift. The
eastern Panhandle and the southwest corner of Georgia are expected
to get heat index values around 108 degrees this afternoon,
prompting one last Heat Advisory in those areas. Practice heat
safety on this Labor Day holiday, by staying hydrated, wearing
light-colored clothing, limiting alcohol, and having a way to cool
down.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

In most years around the 2nd week of September, we are starting to
see the end of the summer thunderstorm season come into view.
This year, that is not the case.

Tuesday and Wednesday will feature easterly low-mid level flow
around the southern periphery of a surface high between North
Carolina and Bermuda. This will keep a summery maritime tropical
air mass continually spreading in from the Atlantic. PW values
will continue in excess of 2 inches south of the FL state line.
This is plenty wet enough to support deep, moist convection,
especially where lift is aided by the seabreeze or any mesoscale
speed surges working westward from the Atlantic.

High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will "cool" off closer
to 90 degrees, but dewpoints in the mid 70s will be a testament to
how moist the air mass will remain. This will continue to support
deep, moist convection.

High pressure to our northeast will quickly dissipate on Wed night
and Thursday, bringing an end to our low-level easterly flow. The
southern fringe of the mid-latitude westerlies will expand
southward into the Southeast States, and our low-level flow will
turn weakly southwesterly through next weekend. This will
continue to reinforce the moist air mass and will even spread the
moist air mass more solidly north of the FL state line into
Alabama and Georgia. Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms
will continue, especially each afternoon as thermal lift and and
mesoscale sources such as the seabreeze are maximized.

Next weekend, a subtropical 500 mb ridge axis may start to develop
near the Bahamas and expand out from there. The air mass here will
remain plenty moist, but a slow building of upper heights next
weekend may reduce convective coverage a little.

Temperatures will generally run 2-4 degrees above normal. Nights
especially will be warmer than normal, due to the moist air mass
inhibiting nighttime cooling.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

There is a slight chance for patchy fog to develop this morning
through daybreak affecting ABY, VLD, and DHN terminals. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are forecast for this afternoon at all
terminals. Confidence in coverage is medium. If storms develop,
they will include frequent lightning with the potential for strong
wind gusts.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Light and gentle southwest to west breezes will prevail today.
Then tonight, the southern periphery of high pressure will bridge
in from the northeast, bringing a turn to northeast and easterly
breezes, along with an increase to moderate or perhaps fresh
breezes. Moderate easterlies will then continue through Wednesday,
becoming fresh during the evening spreading west from the Florida
Peninsula. Easterly winds will die off quickly on Wednesday night
and then becoming gentle southwesterlies on Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Hot and muggy conditions will continue today. The eastern
Panhandle and the southwest corner of Georgia are forecast to get
dangerous heat index values in excess of 107 degrees. Otherwise
today, a turn to northeast wind is expected, becoming easterly and
Tuesday and Wednesday. The summer rainy season, which most
commonly ends around the 2nd week of September, is expected to
carry on for the next 7 days due to a continuation of a moist and
unstable air mass.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

No flooding is expected for the next 7 days. Short-lived nuisance
runoff issues are possible beneath the heaviest thunderstorms.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   93  73  90  73 /  60  40  70  20
Panama City   91  75  89  75 /  60  40  60  30
Dothan        94  72  90  73 /  50  30  30  20
Albany        92  72  90  72 /  40  30  50  10
Valdosta      91  72  90  73 /  60  50  70  20
Cross City    90  73  89  73 /  80  40  70  20
Apalachicola  88  76  85  76 /  60  50  70  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today to 6 PM EDT /5 PM
     CDT/ this evening for FLZ009>014-016-112-326-426.

GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ155-156.

AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner