507
FXUS62 KTAE 282322
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
722 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 718 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

- Fresh northeast breezes over the Gulf waters will continue to
  support a prolonged period of hazardous marine conditions
  through the weekend.

- Chances for showers and storms increase this weekend,
  particularly on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(This Evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Low level northeasterly flow will continue for the next couple of
days as surface troughing maintains in the Bahamas and high pressure
remains anchored in the eastern US. A few gusts to 20 mph will occur
each afternoon through Friday. Ridging overhead will keep conditions
dry with highs above normal with readings in the low to mid 80s and
lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Heading into the weekend, mid level ridging will get shunted
southward as a shortwave trough develops in the desert southwest and
ejects into the southern Plains and southern Mississippi Valley
Friday and Saturday and into the southeast US Sunday. Rain chances
Halloween evening increase (30-40%) generally west of a Tallahassee
to Albany line with the higher end into southeast Alabama and the
Florida panhandle. Not anticipating a washout as higher rainfall
amounts appear relegated to overnight Saturday night into Sunday.
Stashing a small umbrella into the treat bag of little ghosts and
ghouls might be a good idea.

Rainfall exits stage right Sunday night into Monday with dry
conditions anticipated Tuesday as shortwave ridging builds through
the southeast US on the heels of the departing trough. Looking
upstream, a stout upper low develops over the central Plains with a
cold front slicing through the Mid-South. This system will gradually
move into the southeast US later next week.

Slightly cooler temperatures are in the offering Sunday and Monday
with highs generally in the mid to upper 70s. A gradual warming
trend will occur into Tuesday with readings back into the low 80s.
Overnight lows MOnday and Tuesday mornings will bottom out in the
upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 718 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR cigs are expected to prevail through most of the night for most
areas. For early Thursday morning, a stratus deck is expected to
move westward from the Atlantic. As a result, MVFR cigs are forecast
for VLD near sunrise with VFR returning again by early afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Moderate to fresh northeasterly breezes continue through Friday
between high pressure to the north and low pressure in the Bahamas.
Winds turn more easterly ahead of a low pressure system this coming
up weekend. Small Craft Advisories continue for the central and
western portions of our waters, and this may need to be extended
into more of our western waters into the weekend. Seas remain around
3 to 6 feet. Rain chances will increase this weekend over the waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

The stretch of dry weather will continue through Friday.
Northeasterly transport winds will continue around 15-20 mph
Thursday with a gradual weakening of the wind Friday into the
weekend. Good dispersions are anticipated through Friday with some
possibility of low dispersions along coastal locations and the
Florida panhandle Saturday. Wetting rains return beginning Saturday
afternoon through Monday morning as a low pressure system moves
through the southeast US.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Average rainfall amounts will be around an inch this weekend with
isolated higher amounts to 2 inches. These amounts will fall from
Saturday afternoon through Monday morning, with a period of dry
conditions afterwards into midweek. Flooding is not expected at this
time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   63  83  64  84 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   61  82  65  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        55  81  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        57  81  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      61  82  61  84 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    65  83  66  84 /  10  10   0   0
Apalachicola  64  79  66  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Thursday for
     GMZ752-755-770-772-775.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Scholl