165
FXUS62 KTAE 210259
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
959 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 935 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

 - Dense fog across portions of Southeast AL and Eastern FL
   Panhandle has a medium chance of expanding eastward into
   Southwest GA and the FL Big Bend with impacts to travel
   through mid to late Friday morning.

 - Drought persists and/or worsens with little to no rain and
   unseasonably warm temperatures expected through early next
   week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Fog was developing around 8-9 PM ET in Franklin and Gulf Counties
with Apalachicola briefly dropping to 1/4 mile. The setup is very
favorable for dense fog across much of Southeast AL, Eastern FL
Panhandle, and further eastward into the Big Bend and Southwest
GA. Fog will continue developing from Gulf and Franklin Counties
northwestward into the Eastern Panhandle and Southeast AL, where a
Dense Fog Advisory is now in effect through 10 AM ET/9 AM CT,
which also includes Franklin and Liberty counties in the Big
Bend. Fog will expand further eastward into Southwest GA and the
Big Bend around sunrise, but uncertainty in coverage and intensity
precludes us from issuing a Dense Fog Advisory for these areas
just yet, but there is a medium chance one will be needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 105 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Fog remains the main story through the next couple of nights. Fog
will develop again late tonight into Friday morning, starting near
the coast, then spreading north and east through the night. Some of
the fog could be dense in spots, and a Dense Fog Advisory may be
needed again on later shifts. Otherwise, lows will be in the 50s.

Otherwise, Friday continues our trend of warm and dry weather with
highs in the low to mid 80s. Fog will be less expansive Friday
night, mostly confined to the Florida Big Bend. This is due to winds
increasing slightly ahead of an approaching cold front over our
western areas. An isolated shower or two may skirt the northern
fringes of our area late Friday night, but we are at the tail end of
a weakening system. Not much rain is expected, if any, in southeast
Alabama.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 105 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

The aforementioned cold front passes through the area Saturday
rather quietly given limited moisture and weakening upper-level
support. A stray shower is possible, but chances are around 10%.
Temperatures don`t change much behind the front either with highs
staying in the upper 70s to low 80s Saturday through Monday and
lows in the 50s.

By Tuesday, another cold front attempts a run at our area. However,
the parent shortwave to this system begins to lift northward and
dampen as it moves across the Mississippi River. Thus, scattered
showers at best are expected with rain chances around 30-40% both
Tuesday and Wednesday. However, confidence is not particularly high
at this juncture. Unfortunately, no drought relief is expected with
any of our systems during the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Main changes with the 00Z TAFs was to fine tune vsbys and
timing with respect to fairly widespread fog by Friday AM
and lifting cigs more slowly on Friday with a return to VFR
late morning or early afternoon. In particular, a period of
LIFR cigs/vsbys beginning ~05Z at ECP and ~10Z at DHN/TLH;
confidence highest at DHN/ECP. Restrictions are expected to
taper off some toward ABY/VLD with medium confidence in a
period of LIFR around sunrise at ABY and a  period of MVFR
around sunrise at VLD. As mentioned a gradual lift at all
terminals in cigs/vsbys beginning ~13-16Z with a return
to VFR ~16-18Z, although that timing may need fine tuning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 935 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Dense fog will expand across the nearshore waters from Mexico
Beach to the Ochlocknee River and will be most pronounced around
Saint Andrews Bay, Saint Joseph Bay, Apalachicola Bay, and Saint
George Island Sound. The fog should dissipate by 10 AM ET/9 AM
CT. Otherwise, light to gentle southerly breezes continue through
Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. No rain is expected
over the marine area with the front, only a wind shift out of the
north by Sunday. Winds gradually shift out of the east by Monday
then southerly and increasing to moderate on Tuesday ahead of the
next cold front. Seas remain favorable at around 1 to 3 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 105 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Transport winds increase out of the south and southwest on Friday to
around 10-15 mph, then increase further on Saturday to 10-20 mph
ahead of a cold front. Mixing heights will be around 3,000-4,000 ft
both days with higher values in the Wiregrass on Saturday. Thus,
good dispersions are expected away from the coast both days with
some high dispersions across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia
on Saturday. Min RH values will be in the 40s and 50s both days with
excellent recovery overnight. Chances for a wetting rain on Saturday
remain very low (less than 5%).

On Sunday, transport winds become more northerly around 5-10 mph
behind the cold front with fair to good dispersions expected. Min RH
values drop to the 30s for most of the area Sunday afternoon.

Fog, dense at times, is expected tonight and again Friday night.
Fog mixing with smoke will restrict visibilities to near zero in
localized spots.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 105 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Little rainfall is expected for the next 7 days across the area.
Even our reasonable high-end totals for the next 7 days are around
0.50-0.75 inches, which will unfortunately not help the drought
situation.

As of today, the US Drought Monitor now has the area around the
Florida-Georgia state line outlined in Exceptional Drought (D4),
which is the highest category on the drought monitor. This is the
first time since the 2011-2012 winter that any part of our area of
responsibility has been outlined in Exceptional Drought. For more
information on local impacts from drought, please visit
www.weather.gov/LocalDrought.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   84  56  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   78  61  77  66 /   0   0   0  10
Dothan        83  55  81  63 /   0   0   0  10
Albany        83  56  82  62 /   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      84  55  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    84  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  73  60  74  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Friday for
     FLZ007>013-112-326.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Friday for FLZ014-
     015-114-115-426.

GA...None.
AL...Dense Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM CST Friday for ALZ065>069.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ735.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Friday for GMZ752-
     755.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LF
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Young/LF
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young