711
FXUS62 KTAE 161020
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
620 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 404 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

A fairly routine summertime day is on tap today. Being on the
western periphery of the Bermuda high puts us under prevailing
southerly flow. This will allow us to experience one more day of
elevated PWATs, greater than 2 inches, before some relatively drier
air begins making its way into the region tonight. This means
another round of possible heavy downpours today, with flash flooding
concerns around poor drainage areas. Not much upper level support
for ascent today, convection will be diurnally driven along the sea
breeze. An approaching and deamplifying shortwave looks to begin its
closest approach late tonight, influencing our weather tomorrow.

Expect daytime highs generally in the low 90s with overnight lows
generally in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 404 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

The shortwave over the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday will
deamplify heading into Wednesday as a 594 dam ridge builds in from
the east. Ever so slightly drier air moves into the area Tuesday
with PWATs around 1.6 to 1.8 inches across the area with the highest
values over the far western parts of our area. Thus, rain chances
will be around 60-70% over southeast Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle and about 30-50% elsewhere. DCAPE is not overly impressive
on Tuesday, so only the strongest storms appear to have a chance at
producing gusty winds. Heading into Wednesday, PWATs decrease ever
so slightly again, down to 1.5 to 1.7 inches. As a result, combined
with ridging building in from the east, rain chances decrease a bit
more for Wednesday to about 20-40% area-wide. Since there will be
more dry air in the mid-levels, DCAPE values increase quite a bit
for Wednesday afternoon, which may yield more of a gusty wind threat
with storms.

Otherwise, highs both Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the low to
mid 90s with heat index values of 100-105. Lows will be in the low
to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 404 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Moisture increases again heading into Thursday as PWATs climb back
to the 1.7 to 1.9 inch range. While ridging continues to hold over
the eastern parts of our area, a shortwave begins approaching our
area late Thursday into Friday. This will tick the rain chances
upward again, mostly near I-10 into southeast Alabama on Thursday,
then area-wide on Friday. PWATs still remain elevated into the
weekend, but by that point, large-scale ridging takes hold over the
eastern US, which may help suppress rain chances somewhat. But, it
appears that some seabreeze showers and storms will remain possible
each afternoon.

The bigger story will be the increasing heat heading into the
weekend. With a large, sprawling 596 dam ridge over the eastern US,
temperatures will be on the rise. Highs will reach the mid-90s in
most spots with about a 20-25% chance of seeing upper 90s for highs.
Given the abundant moisture remaining in place, it will remain quite
humid with heat index values of 105-110 becoming more common. This
is close to our Heat Advisory criteria (heat indices of 108 or
greater). Lows will be in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

MVFR/IFR cigs continue for the next couple hours at DHN and ABY
with VFR conditions elsewhere. Some patchy fog has developed
around the area, but has largely stayed away from the terminals.
SHRA/TSRA is expected yet again this afternoon with predominant
VCTS at all sites this afternoon. These storms should fade after
00z. Some MVFR cigs are possible yet again at ABY and DHN late in
the period with maybe some patchy fog again.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 404 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

High pressure over the western Atlantic extending into the Gulf will
result in a light south to southwest flow for the next several days.
Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms continue, especially
during the overnight and morning hours each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 404 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Widespread wetting rains over the last few days preclude any fire
weather concerns. High dispersions are possible across SW Georgia
and the FL Big Bend on Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 404 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Some locally heavy downpours remain possible in afternoon showers
and storms. Given the slow motion of storms and some training, some
quick ponding of water on roads and minor flooding of low-lying
areas is possible. Flash flood guidance is around 2-3 inches in 1
hour or 3-4 inches within 3 hours. Widespread flood concerns are not
anticipated.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   89  73  93  73 /  70  10  50   0
Panama City   88  78  90  78 /  50  20  50  10
Dothan        89  73  91  73 /  50  10  60  10
Albany        91  73  92  73 /  50  10  50  10
Valdosta      91  73  93  73 /  40  10  40  10
Cross City    92  72  93  72 /  40  10  50  10
Apalachicola  86  78  88  78 /  60  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Young