389
FXUS62 KTAE 281732
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
132 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE
WEATHER...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Fairly decent cu field this afternoon from Southwest GA into the FL
Big Bend with showers developing in the Flint River Valley as of 1
PM ET. Mid-levels are rather dry with limited forcing so any showers
will struggle to produce lightning. If we do get a thunderstorm to
develop, isolated wind gusts of 40-50 mph would be possible given
DCAPE around 1k J/kg and Bulk Shear around 30 kts. Showers with an
isolated thunderstorm will be limited to the aforementioned areas
and dissipate around sunset. Also of note, dew points are falling
into the middle and upper 50s in portions of Southeast AL and the
Eastern FL Panhandle via turbulent mixing this afternoon and this
will continue into the evening. Meanwhile, a much more humid air
mass with dews in the upper 60s-lower 70s further east, compared
to previous afternoons.

On Friday, PWATs increase to near the 90th percentile across much
of the region as a surface boundary near the Gulf coast attempts to
lift northward into the I-10 corridor. This will provide a focus
for greater coverage of diurnally driven convection, which may tend
to train from west to east. WPC maintains a Marginal Risk (Level
1 of 4) for excessive rainfall. Main concern is nuisance flooding,
with the HREF reasonable worst case scenario staying below flash
flood guidance. As such, the probability of flash flooding is very
low on Friday. Instability is limited and thunder coverage may be
generous (chance vs isolated). Compared to Thursday, it will be
around 5 degrees cooler on average Friday due to cloud cover and
precip, with highs in the low to mid-80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Troughing will remain over the eastern CONUS to start out the
period with a stalled frontal boundary draped somewhere near the
coast. Where exactly this boundary ends up will have a big impact
on the forecast for Saturday, as it will likely be the primary
focus for the development of numerous showers and thunderstorms.
If the front is near the coast or over land, our area could see
some heavier rainfall totals and end up with a cooler, fairly
soggy forecast on Saturday. However if the boundary remains a bit
further offshore, the heavier rainfall totals could end up falling
over the Gulf waters instead. If the wetter pattern comes to
fruition, locally heavy rainfall could lead to a few minor
flooding concerns in urban or otherwise poorly draining areas.
However, widespread flooding is not expected.

The stalled front will slowly push further south over the Gulf Sunday
into early next week, leading to gradually lowering PoPs as it
moves further away. For the work week, a drier pattern is forecast
to return with only a few showers and storms closer to the coast
along the seabreeze and northeast winds keeping a slightly cooler
air mass in place.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

VFR conditions today. Some of the guidance hints at lower cigs/vsbys
beginning around sunrise Friday into the morning. Low confidence in
IFR/MVFR, especially fog, so will show lower SCT cigs for now in the
TAFs effectively keeping it VFR. Just beyond the TAF period Friday
afternoon, greater confidence in SHRA/TSRA restrictions most
sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Generally light to gentle northeasterly breezes will continue over
the waters through Friday before a stationary front lifts
northward. As the front wavers back and forth over our waters,
wind directions will be rather chaotic, though speeds remain
gentle. North of the front, winds will be out of the east to
northeast, but south of the front, winds will be more westerly to
southwesterly. Winds early next week will increase some as the
pressure gradient tightens between building high pressure to the
north and the stationary front to our south. Showers and storms
are expected over the waters, especially Friday through the end of
the period. Seas will remain around 1 to 2 feet, building to 2 to
3 feet early next week.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Increasingly moist air mass Friday into this weekend with wetting
rains peaking on Saturday across much of the region and persisting
into Sunday mainly south of I-10. Easterly transport winds Friday
through Sunday may become southerly Saturday, in combination with
lower mixing heights due to clouds and precipitation, are expected
to promote pockets of low afternoon dispersion mainly to the north
of I-10 in Southeast AL and Southwest GA. Erratic and gusty winds
possible near any thunderstorms that develop.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 128 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

With a stationary front nearby and high moisture content (PWATs
around 1.9-2.1 inches), some locally heavy rainfall is possible.
However, model guidance is quite disparate with the European
ensembles favoring a wetter and farther north scenario while the GFS
and Canadian ensembles lean drier and farther south. Deterministic
rainfall totals have crept upward a bit with 1-2 inches north of I-
10 and 2-3 inches south of I-10. This essentially splits the
difference between the ensemble camps right now. Reasonable worst
case rainfall totals have also crept up to 3 to 6 inches. This could
lead to some localized flash flooding, and at least parts of our
forecast area are in a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1
of 4) through the holiday weekend.

On the riverine front, much depends on where the rain falls. If the
more northern solutions pan out, then some rises could be possible
on the southwest Georgia rivers, but most of the rivers would be
able to take several inches of rain with little problem. If the more
southern solutions pan out, then most of our rivers would be okay
with the only concern potentially being the Sopchoppy which has been
rather elevated as of late.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   72  85  71  84 /  10  50  30  70
Panama City   72  86  73  85 /  10  40  30  80
Dothan        70  83  69  82 /  10  60  40  70
Albany        71  85  70  82 /  10  40  30  60
Valdosta      71  86  70  83 /  30  50  30  60
Cross City    72  89  71  87 /  10  60  30  70
Apalachicola  74  86  74  84 /  10  50  30  80

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Young