430
FXUS62 KTAE 141447
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1047 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1047 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

The forecast is tracking well with observed weather and the latest
guidance, so no updates are needed.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 354 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Lather, rinse, repeat. The summertime pattern rolls along here on
the Gulf Coast. The moist and generally unstable air mass has kept a
few showers and even a rumble of thunder going for much of the night
near the Emerald Coast. As the sea breeze develops and pushes
inland, aided by a weak shortwave over Mississippi, numerous showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop. Storms will begin near
the coast this morning, then spread inland through the afternoon and
evening. PWATs will be a bit higher today, up to 2 to 2.2 inches
across the forecast area. This will lead to a localized heavy rain
and minor flooding threat today. Looking at the HREF, there is about
a 10% chance that localized spots see 4-6 inches of rain, mainly
where training storms occur. DCAPE is not overly impressive today,
around 700-800 J/kg for the most part. Thus, a gusty wind threat
would likely be relegated to only the strongest storms today. Storms
will again fade across land areas after sunset with isolated showers
near the coast and offshore later tonight.

Highs this afternoon will be in the upper 80s to near 90 with heat
index values of 95-105. Lows tonight will be in the mid-70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 354 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Persistence is the name of the game. The forecast has very minimal
changes over the next week as the overall large scale synoptic
pattern remains fairly unchanged. Every day will consist of warm and
moist days with diurnally driven convection, generally forced around
the sea breeze. Coverage is expected to not be as widespread as
we`ve seen the last few days as mid-level dry air from large scale
subsidence acts to limit convection. However, this could also lead
to gusty winds around any thunderstorms that manage to push through
the dry air. Once we get into the end of the week, a quick moving
shortwave looks to move across eastern CONUS possibly enhancing
PoPs on Thursday and Friday. Beyond Friday the models diverge with
the Euro depicting a building ridge over eastern CONUS while the
GFS has a deep trough just off the Atlantic Coastline. The latter
would put the region under prevailing northwest flow with the
potential to see several MCSs. We`ll have to wait a few days to
get some clarity on what the pattern will end up being, so be
sure to check back for updates.

Expect daytime highs generally in the 90s with overnight lows
generally in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Isolated SHRA/TSRA continue this morning invof ECP, TLH, and VLD.
These continue to move NE, but aren`t long lasting. Meanwhile,
MVFR/IFR cigs remain away from DHN and ABY, but they could still
sneak in from the NW during the next couple hours. More widespread
TSRA is expected late this morning near ECP and TLH, then spread
inland to VLD, DHN, and ABY this afternoon and evening. Timed this
out with prevailing VCTS and TEMPO for greatest chance of TSRA.
VFR conditions are expected outside of TSRA. Late tonight, another
round of isolated TSRA is possible at ECP and TLH, so have
introduced PROB30s for both sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 354 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Gentle southerly breezes will prevail through next Wednesday, as the
strong subtropical high remains anchored south of Bermuda.
Showers and thunderstorms will be the main threats to mariners,
including strong wind gusts, lightning and waterspouts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 354 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Continued daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms remain in the
forecast through the next several days. Near and within
thunderstorms, frequent lightning and gusty, erratic winds will be
possible. Outside of storms, south to southwest transport winds
around 10 mph continue each day with generally good dispersions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 354 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Hydrology concerns over the next 7 days will consist of localized
nuisance runoff issues and isolated flash flooding.

A typical pattern of summer thunderstorms will persist for the next
week. Beneath the core of stronger thunderstorms, intense rainfall
rates have potential for localized runoff issues, especially in
urban and poor drainage areas. With torrential rain rates, storms
that linger over the same area for too long would bring isolated
flash flooding.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   87  74  90  73 /  80  30  80  20
Panama City   88  78  89  77 /  70  30  70  40
Dothan        89  74  90  72 /  70  30  70  20
Albany        89  73  91  72 /  80  30  70  30
Valdosta      89  74  91  73 /  70  30  70  20
Cross City    90  72  91  72 /  70  50  70  30
Apalachicola  86  78  87  77 /  70  50  70  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Oliver