830
FXUS62 KTAE 071852
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
152 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 149 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

- There is a 50% chance of 2 inches or more of beneficial rain
  today along the coastline of Port Saint Joe and Southeast FL
  Big Bend.

- There is a low chance (30%) of dense fog on Monday morning for
  points across Florida and far south Georgia.

- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect west of the Ochlockonee
  River from late tonight/early Monday morning and continuing
  into Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Monday night)
Issued at 149 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

This beneficial rain that we have been receiving will continue
through the rest of today. The heavier showers and perhaps a few
rumbles of thunder will be possible in the extreme SE Big Bend
this afternoon and evening. Any stronger storms are expected to
remain over the Gulf. An expected lull will take place overnight
before another round of showers moves into the region before
daybreak. There is potential for fog to develop Monday morning in
the Big Bend region. Soon after sunrise, the cold front is
expected to make its way through, pushing out the remaining
showers and backing the winds to northerly. It will be breezy
through the day with gusts up to 20- 25 mph, moreso in our western
counties in the afternoon. The gusts are expected to calm down
after sunset. Temperatures on Monday will be in the upper 50s in
our AL and GA counties, and mid to upper 60s for our FL counties;
warmest temps in the SE FL Big Bend. Monday night, we can expect
temperatures to fall into the mid and upper 30s for most of the
region, with low 40s in the SE Big Bend. Light winds and clearing
skies Monday night will have wind chills in the low to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 149 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Tuesday morning will be chilly with temps starting in the mid to
upper 30s and low 40s in the SE Big Bend. Frost is likely to
develop in our AL and GA counties. Temps will be struggling to
make reach 60 degrees for much of the region Tuesday afternoon.
Tuesday night, we may see our first freeze since Thanksgiving with
lows in the low 30s, with upper 30s along the coast. Given that
we are expecting light winds, wind chills won`t be too different
from the actual temperatures, with values in the low 30s for much
of the region. A gradual warmup is expected through the rest of
the period, along with dry weather; highs will be in the upper 60s
to low 70s, with lows in the 40s and 50s. As we approach the
weekend, a cold front is expected to move across the region. There
is a chance for rain ahead of the front; thunderstorms do not
look likely at this time due to lack of instability and limited
moisture return ahead of the front. Colder air is expected behind
the front, however the models and ensembles are not in agreement,
with a large spread, as to how far south the cold air will extend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Generally IFR/LIFR cigs/vsbys will continue through much of the
TAF period. Expansive shield of light to moderate rain will
continue moving northeast from the Gulf this afternoon. This
rainfall will gradually shift south and east through the
afternoon, with rain diminishing later this afternoon or early
evening from west to east. Overnight, patchy to areas of fog are
expected at all terminals with the recent rains and light winds. A
cold front will move through the area overnight into Monday
morning with winds switching from the northeast to northwest
behind the front. Some light rain may accompany the front as it
passes by but probs are low. cigs/vsbys will gradually improve
Monday morning though mainly just to high IFR or MVFR by the end
of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 149 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Showers and maybe a few thunderstorms over the waters today could
make winds and seas a little rough in some places. Thunderstorms
will also be possible today just offshore, leading to briefly
higher winds and seas, along with the potential for waterspouts.
However, the real focus for this discussion is the cold frontal
passage moving through the region on Monday. The front looks to
begin its passage over the waters around daybreak. Behind the
front, winds will increase from the north. Advisory level
conditions are expected for our western waters where a Small Craft
Advisory will be in effect. There is about a 40% chance for
advisory level winds expanding further east towards the nearshore
waters off of the Forgotten Coast by Monday evening. Winds and
seas will lessen through the day Tuesday with tranquil boating
conditions returning by Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 149 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Transport winds and mixing heights increase for Monday with winds
being northerly at 15-20 mph and the heights at around 2700 feet
in the afternoon. This will lead to moderate dispersions.
Transwinds decrease for Tuesday to being around 5-10 mph from the
east. This will cause poor dispersion for Tuesday with pockets of
low dispersions. Winds increase again for Wednesday from the
southwest, increasing the dispersion index to possible high
dispersions for our inland districts along I-10 and west of I-75.
MinRH values through this period are above critical and the recent
rains should limit any other fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 149 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Additional rainfall today through tonight could total up to 2",
with isolated higher amounts possible in the SE Big Bend. Heavy
rainfall is possible today, which could lead to nuisance flooding
in urban and low-lying areas. Riverine flooding is not expected.
Following a cold front on Monday, dry weather is expected through
the rest of the work week. Drought conditions following this rain
event will likely show improvement but, it is too soon to say how
much. The next drought monitor update will be available on
Thursday December 11. The latest US Drought Monitor (Dec 4) has
much of the region in Extreme (D3) to Exceptional (D4) drought;
the only change in the last week is a 1-category improvement from
Extreme (D3) to Severe (D2) in portions of Coffee, Dale, and Henry
counties.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   52  62  40  59 /  60  20   0   0
Panama City   52  63  41  60 /  30  10   0   0
Dothan        48  58  35  55 /  50   0   0   0
Albany        47  59  36  55 /  40  20   0   0
Valdosta      49  61  38  57 /  60  20   0   0
Cross City    54  68  41  63 /  80  10   0   0
Apalachicola  55  64  44  59 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EST tonight for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Monday to midnight CST Monday
     night for GMZ751-752-770-772.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
     GMZ755-775.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery