917
FXUS62 KTAE 031837
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
137 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1231 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

 - Small craft should exercise caution on the northeast Gulf
   waters with the exception of Apalachee Bay as fresh northerly
   winds continue into Tuesday morning.

 - Tranquil and dry with temperatures gradually warming towards
   the low 80s by the weekend.

 - Drought conditions will worsen this week, with perhaps the next
   chance for rain next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1231 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Another chilly night is in store tonight as northerly flow
persists with high pressure gradually moving east through the
Tennessee Valley. Lows tonight will bottom out in the low 40s.

Much of this week will be dry and fairly benign. Mid level ridging
will build into the southeast US tonight and Tuesday on the heels
of a departing upper low off the east coast while surface high
pressure pushes towards the east coast Tuesday. This will help
clock winds from the north tonight to the northeast to east
beginning Tuesday which will also start the warming trend.
Ridging flattens out Wednesday and Thursday as a shortwave trough
moves through the Great Lakes with surface high pressure
elongating and shifting south off the east coast westward towards
the Gulf coast. A cold front appears to reach the Tennessee
Valley but stalls and awaits the next in a series of shortwave
troughs from the northern Plains.

Confidence lowers Friday and beyond with respect to the upper
pattern evolution and a potential cold frontal passage this
weekend into early next week. At this time it appears that a cold
front will swing through the area just after this period though
the front may stall in the area this weekend and as winds become
southeasterly and moisture slowly returns, low rain chances are in
the forecast next weekend.

Temperatures will gradually warm to above normal beginning mid to
late week with highs in the low 80s towards the weekend with lows
falling into the low to mid 50s during the same timeframe.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the taf period. Breezy N winds
today will become light and variable overnight before turning light
NE/E tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1231 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Small craft should exercise caution across the northeast Gulf waters
with the exception of Apalachee Bay through Tuesday morning.
Fresh northerly winds will gradually clock to the northeast and
east and slacken as high pressure moves towards the east coast
Tuesday then sink south towards the Gulf coast Wednesday and
Thursday. By late week, winds turn southeasterly with high
pressure moving into the western Atlantic and a cold front reaches
the Mid South.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1231 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

A dry airmass will be in place Tuesday with high pressure gradually
moving east into the southern Appalachians. Initial northerly flow
Tuesday will result in afternoon humidities in the lower 30% range.
As the high pressure moves off the east coast Wednesday and winds
shift to easterly, the airmass will slowly moisten with afternoon
humidities closer to 40% Wednesday and Thursday. Relatively light
surface and transport winds will lead to low dispersions across
portions of the area both Tuesday and Wednesday.

As the next potential cold front moves into the southeast US into
next weekend, winds turn southeasterly and the airmass moistens a
bit more with humidities falling to around 50% in the afternoons.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1231 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Much of the upcoming work week will remain tranquil and dry. For the
upcoming weekend, models are trending towards a cold front reaching
the southeast US which may bring our next chance for rain.
Confidence is low at this stage and amounts appear light.

Drought conditions will therefore worsen through next weekend. For
more drought information, visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   44  75  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   48  75  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        42  74  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        42  74  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      41  75  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    45  77  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  50  70  58  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ this evening for
     FLZ114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Scholl