538
FXUS62 KTAE 041857
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
157 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 153 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

- Widespread rainfall totals of 1" to 4" are possible, with higher
  amounts forecast along and north of a line from near Panama
  City, FL to Valdosta, GA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 153 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

A surface low extending from the Louisiana coast will continue to
bring in rain for the Panhandle coast and SE Alabama into SW
Georgia. The ongoing rain and clouds for today will keep
temperatures cool in the 50s and 60s for most locations except for
the SE Big Bend which may see temps this afternoon around 70
degrees. Tonight, temps will be in mid 40s with the low 50s in the
SE Big Bend. A theme for the Short Term forecast is that the SE
Big Bend will be left out of most of the event that is ongoing
regarding rainfall and temperatures.

Further rounds of rain will be pushed inland by a warm front,
slowly moving east and north through the day Friday. The Storm
Prediction Center has the entire region highlighted for general
thunder. There is, however, a concern for stronger storms along
the immediate coast, depending on where the warm front settles.
Low-level shear will be present, but there will be limited
instability. A few thunderstorms will be possible along the
Panhandle and Big Bend coast where the surface low is most likely
to be inland. The SPC does not expect severe storms to come from
this but there is a non- zero potential that a storm or two could
become surface-based on Friday. However, confidence remains too
low for severe probabilities to be added to the region. If the low
travels further inland, then our AL and GA counties may have the
chance for thunderstorms to develop. Nearly all of the TAE CWA has
an 80-100% chance for rain on Friday, with the southeast Big Bend
ranging from 40-70% on Friday. It will take a little longer for
the system to reach the more eastern counties.

With all the expected and ongoing rain, temperatures will be kept
cool for most of the region with highs on Friday in the upper 50s
in our AL and GA counties, north of the warm front. Our FL
counties can see temperatures in the low 70s, whereas the SE Big
Bend can see highs in the upper 70s. Temps Friday night will be
similarly dispersed with the upper 40s for our AL and GA counties,
low 50s in FL counties, and upper 50s for the SE Big Bend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 153 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

The surface low from the Short Term will have moved east, but
another surface low will follow; this keeps the rain ongoing for
Saturday into Sunday. PWATs of 1.6" to 1.8" are forecast over the
region and are near record values for early December. This could
lead to heavy showers for Saturday night into Sunday. We could see
the potential for localized flooding concerns in urban and low-
lying areas. The WPC has highlighted our regions in a Marginal
Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall for both Saturday and
Sunday.

Not really expecting any thunder with this round of showers as
the instability seems to remain well offshore. High temperatures
for Saturday through the rest of the long term will be around
normal with highs in the upper 50s north of I-10 to low-mid 60s in
our FL counties. There will be a cold front passing through,
clearing out all the rain Sunday night into Monday. Following the
frontal passage, overnight lows will be cooler. Expect Low
temperatures for the start of the work week to range in the upper
30s and low 40s along the coast, which is a little below average
for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Generally VFR to MVFR conditions are expected outside any
moderate to heavy rain showers through this evening. Cigs
overnight are currently forecast to lower at DHN and ABY to IFR as
the cold front approaches the region. At ECP/TLH/VLD cigs are
expected to lower as we approach daybreak tomorrow morning. A
brief lull overnight in shower activity is also expected before
another round of showers and storms tomorrow morning. Low cigs
will hang around the region through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 153 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Conditions show that there currently are 20kt winds in our
western- most zones this afternoon. As a result, a Small Craft
Advisory is in effect through this evening for 20 kt winds with
gusts around 25 kts.

From Synopsis: Easterly winds that are at Cautionary (near-
Advisory) level for our waters west of Apalachicola this afternoon
will shift southerly by tomorrow morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are likely and will continue through the weekend.
Our western waters will see seas of 3-4 feet, while being around 2
feet to the east. Northeasterly winds return on Saturday and will
clock around again to return to northerly winds on Monday as a
cold front makes its way through the region. Cautionary to
Advisory-level winds are expected during the day Monday as
showers/thunderstorms are cleared out by the front. Seas are
expected to increase (3-5 feet) behind the front Monday. More
tranquil boating conditions return by the middle of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 153 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Low afternoon dispersions today through Sunday with the exception
for the SE FL Big Bend on Friday where fair dispersions are
forecast. However, widespread rainfall is forecast for today
through the weekend with an accumulation total of 1-4 inches, with
a marginal chance of exceeding 6 inches in localized areas. The
higher rain chances will be for our western districts and totals
will decrease as you head east and south. Winds today will clock
around from southerly at around 10-15 mph to be northerly by
Friday afternoon decreasing to around 5-10 mph. A cold front will
clear out the rain Sunday into Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 153 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Multiple rounds of showers are expected beginning today through
Sunday. The heaviest of showers are expected Friday morning along
the Panhandle coast, then again Saturday into Sunday. A widespread
1- 4 inches is expected, with the lowest amounts in the FL SE Big
Bend.

Given antecedent conditions, riverine flooding is not expected.
However, there could be some nuisance flooding from heavier
showers/storms over the next few days; particularly over our FL
counties along and south of I-10 as the rain/storms could train
over the area.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   50  72  54  64 /  60  80  50  80
Panama City   50  72  54  63 /  60  80  60  90
Dothan        45  58  49  56 /  70  80  80  90
Albany        45  57  49  57 /  70  90  80  90
Valdosta      48  71  52  62 /  50  90  60  90
Cross City    52  77  58  73 /  10  30  40  60
Apalachicola  56  73  57  67 /  40  70  50  80

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ751-770.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery