502
FXUS62 KTBW 311223
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
823 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Unsettled pattern with previously advertised wetter and relatively
cooler conditions will settle into the area today in association
with a stalled surface boundary and westerly flow aloft south of E
CONUS longwave troughing. Shortwave impulses propagating through
the flow aloft aiding instability and overspreading moisture
associated with the surface boundary will lead to periods of
showers and storms across the region, favoring and spreading
ashore coastal locations during the mornings before expanding into
and becoming more numerous over the interior in the afternoons.

Given the persistent soggy conditions, a Marginal Risk for
potential flooding exists for all of W FL and the peninsula today
into mid week, most likely in areas receiving heavier downpours
relatively quickly allowing for ponding of water in typical flood
prone urban, low lying and poor drainage locations. While some
drier air intrusions will be possible north of the boundary that
would act to limit overall rain chances, the boundary is expected
to remain generally over the northern or central peninsula,
favoring at least scattered to numerous showers and storms each
day into mid week. Currently, most likely expected rainfall
amounts range from 1-3 inches north of I-4, to 2-4 inches south of
I-4, with locally higher amounts possible particularly for
WC/SWFL and coastal locations.

A shortwave dropping across the Lower MS Valley and rounding the
base of the longwave trough across the SE U.S. mid to late week
will potentially provide a bit of a push to nudge the boundary
into S FL or the FL Straits enabling relatively drier air to
filter deeper into the peninsula leading to a decrease in rain
chances late week into next weekend. In response, high temps would
likely warm a few degrees back into the lower 90s, after being
limited mainly to the upper 80s today through mid week due to the
anticipated additional cloudiness.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 820 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

A stalled out boundary to our north will give us an active weather
pattern today with periods of rain and thunderstorms expected over
each terminal. I have tried to highlight the best chance to see
thunderstorms with TEMPO group at each station.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

A quasi-stationary frontal boundary will linger over the waters
through the next few days, with deep moisture leading to numerous
showers and thunderstorms each day. Winds will generally remain
less than headline criteria, although daily thunderstorms will
produce locally gusty winds rough seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Increased shower and storm chances through the early part of the
week as a weak frontal boundary brings additional moisture and
instability into the area. Scattered to numerous storms likely each
day, with the greatest potential for storms near the coast generally
in the morning to early afternoon, with the higher chances inland
during the afternoon and evening across the interior. Minimal fire
weather concerns expected through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  77  89  75 /  70  40  60  30
FMY  89  75  91  75 /  70  50  70  40
GIF  90  74  89  74 /  70  40  60  10
SRQ  89  74  89  74 /  60  40  60  40
BKV  87  71  88  70 /  70  30  60  20
SPG  86  76  88  75 /  70  40  60  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Giarratana
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana