Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
678 FXUS62 KTBW 061807 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 207 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 203 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 - Scattered afternoon showers today and tomorrow, drier Wednesday and Thursday. - Cold front moves through Friday into Saturday, bringing a few days of fall like conditions afterwards. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Deep tropical moisture continues to reside over Florida. A surface high over the east coast is keeping the area in an easterly flow, though winds have subsided a bit now that the pressure gradient has relaxed. A weak surface low just off the southeast coast of Florida also lingers. Overall, these features will allow plenty of moisture to hang around, increasing cloud coverage and rain chances. Today and tomorrow rain chances will shift from the east coast of FL in the morning to the west coast in the afternoon into the evening. Wednesday rain chances will decrease as some dry air filters in to the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Rain chances increase again Friday as a cold front takes aim at Florida. The front is expected to move through the area over the weekend leaving a trail of cooler and drier conditions. Current forecast has lows in the 60s and highs in the low to mid 80s behind the front. Before that shot of cooler, fall-like weather, we will still have this week of more summer-like weather. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Ceilings for some of the area have improved throughout the day. However, brief periods of reduced flight categories are still possible as we head into the evening as showers and storms move towards the west coast. Gusty, easterly winds also expected through the afternoon. Conditions become mostly rain free overnight, however low ceilings are expected to linger into tomorrow morning. Another round of showers and storms possible tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Though marine conditions have improved slightly, small craft should still exercise caution. Easterly winds remain gusty especially over the open water. This pattern continues through the week, with another surge of higher winds expected Friday into Saturday as a cold front move over the waters. Showers and storms could also make it over the waters this evening as they move from the east coast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Fire weather concerns remain minimal as ample moisture remains over the region. A shot of dry air is expected early next week after a cold front moves through this weekend. However, RH values should remain above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 77 90 76 90 / 10 30 0 20 FMY 76 89 74 90 / 20 50 10 40 GIF 75 88 74 90 / 10 40 0 20 SRQ 75 89 74 90 / 20 40 10 20 BKV 73 89 69 91 / 10 30 0 20 SPG 76 87 76 88 / 10 30 0 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley