532
FXUS62 KTBW 110051
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
851 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

No changes made to grids as the forecast remains on track.
Northeasterly winds continue across the area with widespread low
cloudiness developing the remainder of the evening and overnight,
leading to another mild night with lows in the mid/upper 60s north
and upper 60s/lower 70s central and south. Lower rain chances on
Saturday despite continued cloud cover for much of the day, with
afternoon highs generally from the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 144 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

 - Hazardous marine conditions will continue into the weekend.

 - Drier and slightly cooler conditions are expected later this
   weekend into next week.


.DISCUSSION...
A cutoff low is over the southeast this afternoon while a surface
low tries to form near or just offshore the Florida east coast. A
breezy northeast wind flow continues across the area today, with
some showers and a few thunderstorms moving within this flow. For
tonight into Saturday, the low aloft will continue over the state
while the surface low starts to move up the eastern seaboard. There
will likely be a few showers Saturday afternoon as the low pulls
away, but overall coverage looks to be limited. High pressure then
builds in for Sunday into next week, with cooler and drier air
filtering into the region. Highs will still be in the mid to upper
80s, but lows will generally be in the 60s with lower dew points as
well. Overall, pretty pleasant conditions coming up.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 735 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

MVFR to IFR cigs the primary feature through much of the period
with continued northeasterly winds. Cigs look to mix out by around
mid afternoon on Saturday with VFR returning thereafter. Afternoon
shower chances remain relatively low therefore have excluded
mention this cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
Breezy northeast winds will keep Small Craft Advisories in place for
the waters from Tampa Bay northward, with elevated winds continuing
through Saturday. Winds start to relax on Sunday and will then
remain below headlines through early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
Gusty northeast winds will continue across the region through
Saturday before diminishing. A few showers and an isolated storm are
expected tomorrow, then a cold front moves through, bringing drier
air over the region. Relative humidity values are expected to remain
above critical levels, however, with no Red Flag concerns. No
significant fog is expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  71  83  69  83 /  10  10  10   0
FMY  72  85  69  85 /  30  20  10   0
GIF  71  82  67  83 /  20  20  10  10
SRQ  71  83  68  82 /  10  10  10   0
BKV  67  81  62  82 /  20  20  10   0
SPG  71  81  69  81 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
     River FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Carlisle
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn