386
FXUS62 KTBW 151357
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
957 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 956 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A weak trough axis lingers across the area with weak ridging
trying to build in across the state. South Florida continues to
experience periods of rain and more showers are in place across
the central coastal waters this morning. Scattered to numerous
showers and storms are expected to develop across the CWA mainly
in the afternoon with some gusty southerly flow in place. The area
transitions to more of an easterly flow tomorrow, which should
focus more scattered showers and storms closer to the coast for
Sunday afternoon. Current forecast is on track with this and have
no updates planned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 956 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Light SE flow currently in place across the terminals with some
gusty showers across the southern ones. Showers and storms will
increase in coverage in the early afternoon as winds become more
southerly and gusty, with MVFR to IFR conditions possible in the
storms, then should diminish through the later afternoon. Winds
become light and more SE overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 956 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Southerly flow today will become easterly for Sunday as stronger
ridging builds into the area from the NE. Easterly flow will then
continue through the rest of the period, with scattered showers
and storms possible mainly in the later afternoon and evening as
storms push offshore from diurnal convection over land each day.
Current forecast is on track with all of this and have little
changes for the update.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  77  91  77 /  60  30  50  20
FMY  86  76  90  76 /  70  30  50  20
GIF  90  75  92  75 /  60  20  40  20
SRQ  88  77  92  75 /  60  30  50  20
BKV  91  72  93  71 /  60  30  50  20
SPG  88  80  92  79 /  60  30  50  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hubbard
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Carlisle