Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
464 FXUS62 KTBW 100731 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 231 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures remain near to below normal through Friday, then warming up during the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 Early morning IR satellite is showing layers of broken status clouds sprawled across much of the forecast area. These clouds are protecting much of the area from experiencing significant radiational cooling, and should keep morning lows today generally in the 50s outside of parts of the Nature Coast. After sunrise, the cloud cover should largely dissipate, allowing temperatures to warm back up into the mid 60s to upper 70s. Tonight and Thursday, an upper level trough will swing into the eastern US, pulling a dry cold front through the Florida Peninsula. While the cold air advection will be brief and largely during daylight hours on Thursday, lighter winds and clear skies Friday morning will allow for a robust radiational cooling setup, with lows expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s over the Nature Coast, and 40s to low 50s across the rest of the forecast area. High pressure will build back in Friday through the weekend, allowing temperatures to quickly warm back up to near to slightly above normal. Another weak cold front will arrive by Sunday night, with an outside chance of a few showers ahead of the front. Temperatures will drop slightly behind the front Sunday night and Monday, but the cool down is not forecast to be as strong as what will be seen Friday morning. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 231 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 Some MVFR or patchy IFR ceilings will be possible through just after sunrise this morning. Then mainly VFR conditions should hold through the rest of the day, although some pockets of MVFR ceilings could return throughout the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 231 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 High pressure north of the coastal waters this morning will sink south into the eastern Gulf today and tonight ahead of a weak and dry cold front. This front will pass south through the area early Thursday, with wind speeds briefly increasing to around 15 knots. High pressure then fills back in behind the front late Thursday through the first half of the weekend, allowing winds to relax. The next front will move into the area on Sunday, bringing slight chances of showers and another increase in winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 231 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 No humidity concerns today as high pressure holds over the area. A weak and dry cold front will move through the Florida Peninsula early Thursday, pulling drier air into the area for the end of the week. Relative humidity percentages are forecast to drop into the upper 30s Friday afternoon, mainly over the Nature Coast counties, but widespread critically low humidity is not expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 71 58 69 49 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 76 57 75 50 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 72 52 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 72 58 71 48 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 70 48 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 70 61 70 53 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Fleming