Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
527 FXUS62 KTBW 061514 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1014 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of dense fog expected early Sunday morning across west central and southwest Florida. - Rain chances increase through the weekend. - Cooler and drier conditions return early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1007 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 Widespread dense fog has been the big weather concern of the morning impacting the aviation terminals, the Tampa Bay Port and travel along the highways. The Dense Fog Advisory expired at 10 AM. Conditions are expected to continue to improve through the day with partly to mostly cloudy skies prevailing. A chance of showers will also be possible through the day, primarily from Tampa Bay northward. Models are showing the development of fog and low clouds once again early Sunday morning, so have made some changes to the weather grids to add areas of fog from 2 am to 10 am Sunday morning. No other significant changes needed to the forecast at this time. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1007 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 The widespread dense fog continues to burn off and lift at all terminals. Some LIFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs will continue for the next couple of hours, then VFR conditions expected the remainder of the day. Fog and low ceilings are possible once again early Sunday morning, so we will likely see more impacts to the terminals during that time as well. && .MARINE... Issued at 1007 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 Interaction between high pressure southeast of Florida and a frontal boundary to the north will keep variable winds less than 15 knots and seas 2 feet or less through Saturday evening. A chance of showers will be possible through the day in the vicinity of and south of the frontal boundary. There is also a possibility of some early morning dense fog over the eastern gulf waters early Sunday morning. During the day on Sunday, rain and storm chances increase as the frontal boundary slowly shifts southward. This will bring scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms over the eastern Gulf waters. By early Monday afternoon, the front pushes southeast of Florida and high pressure builds in from the northwest. This will clear out the rain chances, but will bring some hazardous boating conditions with breezy north-northeast winds around 15-20 knots and seas up to 5 feet for the first half of next week. Pleasant boating conditions expected mid to late next week with winds less than 10 knots and seas less than 2 feet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 80 67 79 67 / 40 40 60 90 FMY 83 68 83 70 / 0 10 20 60 GIF 84 64 83 65 / 40 40 50 80 SRQ 80 67 80 67 / 20 30 40 80 BKV 80 59 79 59 / 40 50 70 90 SPG 79 69 78 68 / 40 40 50 90 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Flannery