Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
081 FXUS62 KTBW 101811 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 111 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures remain near to below normal through Friday, then warming up during the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 107 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 A near-zonal flow is in place aloft across the state this afternoon with surface high pressure centered over the region. Some trapped low-level moisture has kept a persistent deck of stratus across much of the forecast area since early this morning and while this helped keep low temperatures more moderate, the clouds should continue to lift and allow temperatures to rise into the upper 60s north to mid 70s south. For tonight into Thursday, an upper trough will swing through the southeast, bringing a dry cold front across the state and allowing high pressure to quickly build back in for Friday. This setup will keep slightly below normal temperatures in place through the end of the work week before conditions moderate this weekend ahead of the next frontal boundary, which is forecast to move through late Sunday. This will give us another brief cool-down for Monday, then temperatures moderate for mid week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 107 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 MVFR cigs linger across the region this afternoon, but are expected to lift to VFR within the next few hours. Tricky forecast going forward as we could see another round of lower clouds tonight as a front passes overhead, but models are showing lower chances of MVFR/IFR as of now, keeping cigs more in the 4-5k foot range. Conditions should improve by the end of the period as drier air moves in. && .MARINE... Issued at 107 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 A weak cold front will move through the region tonight, with northwest winds increasing to exercise caution levels for portions of the waters. Winds turn north through Thursday and then east for the weekend, diminishing below headlines. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 107 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 A weak cold front will move through the area tonight, with some drier air moving over the region through the end of the week. No fire weather concerns overall as relative humidity values will remain near or above critical levels and other Red Flag criteria will not be met. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 57 69 49 73 / 0 10 0 0 FMY 56 75 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 53 69 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 59 71 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 48 68 37 73 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 61 69 55 73 / 0 10 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Carlisle