755
FXUS62 KTBW 300643
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
243 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- Higher humidity along with higher rain and storm chances return
  remainder of the week and into the weekend.

- Increasing winds and building seas over the eastern Gulf waters
  on Thursday and Friday. Small Craft should Exercise Caution.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Weak troughing over the area is continuing to keep south-southeast
winds over the area, which is helping pump in increasing moisture
into west central and southwest Florida. The 00Z TBW sounding is
showing this pronounced increase with a PWAT of 1.88 inches. North
of Florida, broad surface high pressure is located near West
Virginia and ridges southwest through Mississippi. This will bring
back a predominant east through southeast wind flow over the Florida
peninsula. PWAT values will be up to 1.7 - 2.1 inches across most of
west central and southwest Florida. This will equate to scattered
showers and isolated storms across the region on Wednesday
afternoon.

By Thursday morning, the troughing fills, while the surface high has
moved off the Carolina coastline and continues to ridge west-
southwestward over Florida and into the eastern Gulf. PWAT values
starting on Thursday afternoon will be up to 2+ inches across the
Florida peninsula. This pattern will hold through the end of the
week and into the weekend with scattered to numerous showers and
storms expected each afternoon during that time period.

By Sunday afternoon, high pressure east of Florida continues to
ridge westward over the area. A little farther to the west, an area
of low pressure and frontal boundary develops near the LA/MS
coastline. The predominant south-southeast winds that have been over
the area will shift more southwesterly on Monday afternoon as that
system moves through the area late Monday into Tuesday. Continued
high rain chances with scattered to numerous showers and storms
expected for the first half of next week as this front becomes
stationary over north central Florida.

With the increasing moisture and rain chances through the period,
temperatures and humidity will also be on the rise. Overnight lows
this morning and Thursday morning will be in the upper 60s to low
70s, then low to mid 70s for the remainder of the forecast period.
Near seasonal daytime highs expected with upper 80s to low 90s each
day through the end of the week and into the weekend. A slight cool
down is expected next Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front moves
through the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 240 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Outside of storms, VFR conditions and winds less than 10 knots
prevail through the period. Some showers possible later this morning
after 11Z for PGD/FMY/RSW, so will cover this with VCSH for now.
Then later this afternoon after 19Z, showers and storms possible, so
will cover this with VCTS and PROB30 TSRA between 21-01Z, with some
MVFR/occasional IFR conditions for VSBY and CIG restrictions as
well as gusty winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Southeast winds around 10 to 15 knots and seas less than 2 feet will
continue today. Some showers and storms will be possible in the Gulf
this morning and afternoon. High pressure off the Carolina coastline
will ridge west-southwest into the eastern Gulf starting Thursday
and continuing through Saturday. This will bring an increase in the
winds to 15 to 20 knots out of the southeast with Small Craft
Exercise Caution conditions possible. Seas will also build to around
4 feet. Scattered showers and storms will continue in the forecast
for the latter part of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Moisture and rain chances will increase starting today, with the
highest chances over southwest Florida. Rain chances further
increase for all of west central and southwest Florida the latter
part of the week with scattered to numerous showers and storms
possible each afternoon. Outside of storms, winds will remain less
than 15 mph. No other fire weather concerns anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  74  89  75 /  40  30  60  30
FMY  88  74  88  75 /  50  40  70  30
GIF  90  72  90  74 /  40  30  50  10
SRQ  88  73  89  74 /  40  30  70  40
BKV  90  68  91  71 /  40  30  60  20
SPG  87  74  88  76 /  40  30  70  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 7

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...Fleming