793
FXUS62 KTBW 171204
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
804 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 735 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR conditions with east to southeasterly winds prevailing
this morning. Going into the afternoon, rain chances increase
along the sea breeze in some areas as drier air continues to limit
storm coverage. The highest chances remain across SW FL terminals
during the late afternoon and evening hours. Other areas could
have some activity near by but confidence is not high enough at
this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Showers still lingering along the coast north of Pinellas. These
showers should slowly dissipate as we get closer to sunrise.
Ridging to our north will continue to give us southeasterly flow
through Friday. This will help to keep the highest shower chances
along the west coast of Florida. The big difference in the forecast
for the rest of the week will be drier air aloft filtering in. We
can already see the difference in our evening skew-t which was down
to 1.6 compared to the 1.8 to 1.9 we have been seeing since the
weekend. So even though the west coast of Florida should see the
most activity over the week we can expected to see it limited with
PoPs mainly in the 30 to 40 percent range.

As we head into the weekend and early next week the orientation of
the ridge will change giving us more of a northeasterly flow. This
puts us in regime 2 which typical brings the highest rain shower
chances into SW Florida.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  78  94  79 /  30  40  40  40
FMY  93  75  94  76 /  60  30  40  20
GIF  95  76  95  76 /  40  20  40  10
SRQ  91  76  93  76 /  30  50  40  40
BKV  93  72  95  72 /  30  30  40  30
SPG  91  80  91  79 /  30  50  40  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme/Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Flannery