572
FXUS62 KTBW 261826
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
226 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Florida remains situated between upper ridging south and west of
Florida, while upper troughing persists north of the area. On the
surface, high pressure ridges south of Florida and into the central
Gulf of Mexico. This is producing a predominant light onshore
westerly flow over the region. This pattern will continue through
the end of the week. Slow moving showers and storms continue to fire
up over southwest Florida and traverse eastward through the
afternoon and evening hours. Some of these slow moving showers and
storms could produce some localized flooding in heavy downpours.

By Saturday morning, the Atlantic ridge will shift slightly
northward, while weak high pressure remains in the central Gulf of
Mexico. This will bring some south-southeast winds over the east
coast, but light onshore winds will also be possible over the west
coast and eastern gulf waters. Abundant moisture with PWAT values
between 1.7 - 2.1 inches will persist through the forecast period.
Scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible each day
through the period. Daytime highs will top out in the low to mid
90`s with heat indices reaching 100-107 degrees. Overnight lows will
remain in the 70`s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

VFR conditions will prevail outside of thunderstorms. Light westerly
winds around 5-10 knots will persist through the period. Will hold
VCTS to cover thunderstorms today through 22Z for LAL/PGD/FMY/RSW.
Storms that do develop will be slow moving.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

High pressure to our south will maintain a westerly onshore flow
heading into the weekend. Over the weekend, wind directions may
become more variable as the high pressure system begins to move
north and shift us towards a slightly offshore flow. This should be
relatively brief, though, as the onshore flow is set to resume early
next week. Winds will be light, not exceeding 10 knots. Wave heights
will be no more than 2 feet throughout the period. As usual, some
scattered showers and storms can be expected daily through the next
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Pretty typical summertime pattern continues over the area with
abundant moisture, warm temperatures and light winds. Scattered
showers and isolated storms expected each day through the end of the
week and into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  90  80  91 /  40  50  20  50
FMY  77  90  77  92 /  40  50  10  60
GIF  76  93  76  94 /  40  60  10  60
SRQ  79  90  78  92 /  40  50  20  50
BKV  75  91  75  93 /  30  50  20  60
SPG  81  88  81  90 /  40  50  20  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn
MARINE...Wynn/Thaden
DECISION SUPPORT...ADavis