378
FXUS62 KTBW 151831
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
231 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.DISCUSSION...
Not much change to the forecast philosophy from yesterday. A
southeast to south low-level flow remains in place across the region
with the Atlantic ridge axis across the central part of the
peninsula and a few showers and storms have been ongoing over the
Gulf since this morning. As we head through the rest of the day, we
should see a bit more storm coverage than yesterday as this
morning`s sounding came in with a higher PW value. The pattern
should be pretty similar, however, with most activity pushing away
from the immediate coast through the afternoon, followed by some
storms moving back toward the coast overnight. Hi-res models also
show some additional storms forming over the Gulf and near or
over the coast toward daybreak.

Through the rest of the forecast period, southeast flow remains in
place, though some relatively drier air is still forecast to move in
starting Monday, leading to decreased rain chances. Moisture goes
back up for the end of the week and then into next weekend, with
rain chances going back up.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Best storm chances remain for southwest Florida sites and KLAL for
the rest of the day, with another round overnight into early Monday
morning for Tampa Bay area sites, though these could also remain
just offshore. VFR conditions continue outside of convection, while
gusty winds and MVFR/IFR conditions are possible with any storms
over the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Southeast to south winds will turn onshore with the sea breeze each
afternoon for the next several days with no headlines expected.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, but rain
chances remain highest during the overnight and early morning
hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected
with no fire weather concerns. No significant fog is expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  91  78  93 /  20  50  40  40
FMY  75  93  76  93 /  40  40  40  40
GIF  76  94  76  95 /  40  50  20  40
SRQ  76  91  76  92 /  30  40  40  40
BKV  72  92  71  94 /  20  50  30  40
SPG  78  88  79  90 /  30  40  40  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$