Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
401 FXUS62 KTBW 100016 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 716 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Below normal temperatures today and Wednesday will warm back up later this week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 716 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 We continue to see some weak overrunning across the area with north to northeast surface winds shifting to south to southwest at few thousand feet leading to abundant low clouds across all but the northern Nature Coast. Cannot rule out a sprinkle or two here and there across the southern parts of the region tonight, but overall mainly just a lot of clouds will continue. This pattern will continue into Wednesday morning then a more northwesterly flow will develop by afternoon with drier air moving in helping to clear skies. Overall forecast looks on track with no adjustments needed. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 716 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Some areas of MVFR ceilings will continue tonight, mainly across southwest Florida. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF forecast period. Northeast winds around 5 knots will become west to northwest at around 10 knots midday Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 100 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 This afternoon`s satellite imagery shows conditions clearing for areas north of I4 while mostly cloudy conditions linger to the south where moisture is still available. Cooler and drier air will continue to move over the area along the north northeast winds today and tomorrow. Low temperatures tonight will dip into the upper 30s to mid 40s, especially over northern portions of the forecast area where clear skies will allow for some radiational cooling. Another weak cold front will swing through the area Thursday dropping temperatures Friday morning once again. Rain chances remain out of the forecast until Saturday night into Sunday when an upper level disturbance crosses over FL slightly increasing moisture. However, rain chance will still remain minimal during this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 100 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Breezy, exercise caution conditions will continue to diminish through the rest of the afternoon into the evening. Another weak cold front will move over the waters Thursday slightly increasing winds once again, however should remain below headline criteria. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 100 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Fire weather concerns remain minimal as RH values remain above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 68 54 70 57 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 71 59 75 55 / 10 0 0 0 GIF 69 54 72 51 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 68 56 71 57 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 67 45 69 47 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 68 58 70 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Close DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Davis