087
FXUS62 KTBW 141056
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
656 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
VFR conditions continue this morning and are expected outside of
convection later today. Best chances are for southwest Florida
sites and KLAL. Trickiest part of the forecast is for KTPA and
KPIE as the sea breeze looks to keep most of the storms just to
the east through the afternoon and evening before they eventually
come back toward the coast after 00Z. With this thinking in mind,
have opted to take out mention of storms for these two sites until
03Z. Of course, will amend later if necessary.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Upper level ridging and broad surface high pressure near Bermuda
ridges west-southwest over northern Florida through the weekend.
Similar to the past few days, a prevailing southeast wind flow will
remain over Florida with the exception of along the west coast where
the sea breeze will set up producing onshore winds each afternoon
and evening. Abundant moisture with PWAT values around 1.6-2.1
inches will support daily scattered showers and storms through the
weekend.

The upper ridge and surface high shifts slightly southward by Monday
morning, but prevailing winds will remain out of the south-southeast
through south-southwest for most of next week. Some slightly drier
air will also move into the region next week with PWAT values
dropping to around 1.4-1.8 inches. This may limit shower and storm
coverage a bit next week, but still enough moisture to support daily
scattered showers and isolated storms. Seasonal temperatures
expected with daytime highs in the upper 80`s along the coast and
low to mid 90`s over the interior and overnight lows in the 70`s.
Heat indices will reach 100-105 degrees each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

High pressure ridging across central Florida and into the eastern
gulf will produce a predominant southeast wind flow over the eastern
gulf waters through the weekend. A daily sea breeze can also be
expected turning winds onshore near the west coast each afternoon.
With this pattern, the highest rain and storm chances will be during
the afternoon and evening hours with storms moving from east to
west. Outside of thunderstorms, light winds 10 knots or less and
seas 2 feet or less can be expected through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Abundant moisture and light winds will continue through the weekend
precluding any fire weather concerns. Daily afternoon and evening
showers and storms expected each day through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  79  92  79 /  70  50  70  60
FMY  93  75  93  76 /  70  40  70  50
GIF  93  75  93  75 /  70  30  70  30
SRQ  91  76  91  76 /  60  50  70  70
BKV  93  72  92  72 /  70  40  70  40
SPG  89  79  89  79 /  60  50  70  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 7
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Aviation...Carlisle
Previous...Wynn