128
FXXX10 KWNP 251231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jun 25 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 25-Jun 27 2024 is 2.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 25-Jun 27 2024

             Jun 25       Jun 26       Jun 27
00-03UT       1.67         1.67         1.67
03-06UT       1.33         2.00         1.67
06-09UT       2.67         1.33         1.67
09-12UT       2.67         1.33         1.33
12-15UT       2.33         1.33         1.33
15-18UT       2.00         1.00         1.33
18-21UT       1.33         1.33         1.33
21-00UT       1.67         1.67         1.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 25-Jun 27 2024

              Jun 25  Jun 26  Jun 27
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jun 24 2024 1910 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 25-Jun 27 2024

              Jun 25        Jun 26        Jun 27
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely on 25-27
Jun.