289
FXXX10 KWNP 250031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Dec 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 25-Dec 27 2025 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 25-Dec 27 2025

             Dec 25       Dec 26       Dec 27
00-03UT       3.67         2.00         1.67
03-06UT       2.67         2.67         1.67
06-09UT       2.67         2.33         1.33
09-12UT       3.00         2.33         1.33
12-15UT       2.67         2.33         1.33
15-18UT       1.67         2.33         1.33
18-21UT       1.67         2.33         1.67
21-00UT       2.67         2.67         1.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 25-Dec 27 2025

              Dec 25  Dec 26  Dec 27
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 25-Dec 27 2025

              Dec 25        Dec 26        Dec 27
R1-R2           30%           40%           45%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is an increasing chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)
radio blackouts over the next three days.