726
FXXX10 KWNP 111231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Feb 11 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 11-Feb 13 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 11-Feb 13 2026

             Feb 11       Feb 12       Feb 13
00-03UT       4.00         1.67         1.67
03-06UT       3.33         2.00         1.33
06-09UT       3.00         1.67         1.33
09-12UT       3.00         1.33         1.33
12-15UT       1.33         0.67         1.33
15-18UT       1.33         1.00         1.33
18-21UT       1.00         1.67         1.67
21-00UT       1.67         1.67         1.67

Rationale: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at unsettled up to
active levels on 11 Feb before returning to quiet levels on 12-13 Feb as
no recurrent or transient disturbances are anticipated near Earth during
this period.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 11-Feb 13 2026

              Feb 11  Feb 12  Feb 13
S1 or greater    5%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Feb 11 2026 0057 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 11-Feb 13 2026

              Feb 11        Feb 12        Feb 13
R1-R2           15%           10%           10%
R3 or greater   10%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts through 13 Feb.