170
FXXX10 KWNP 241231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Oct 24 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 24-Oct 26 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 24-Oct 26 2026

             Oct 24       Oct 25       Oct 26
00-03UT       2.00         3.00         2.33
03-06UT       1.33         3.33         2.00
06-09UT       0.67         3.67         2.00
09-12UT       2.00         3.33         2.00
12-15UT       1.00         3.67         2.00
15-18UT       0.67         3.00         2.00
18-21UT       1.33         3.33         2.00
21-00UT       1.33         3.00         2.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
Active levels are expected on 25 Oct due to the possible glancing
effects of the CME that left the Sun on 21 Oct combined with an
anticipated impact of a high speed stream from a negative polarity
coronal hole that is expected to become geoeffective.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 24-Oct 26 2026

              Oct 24  Oct 25  Oct 26
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 24-Oct 26 2026

              Oct 24        Oct 25        Oct 26
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts through 26 Oct.