448
FXUS65 KTFX 110441
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1041 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Breezy through the remainder of this evening.

 - Some high elevation snow tonight.

 - Intermittent unsettled weather through the weekend.

 - Ridging looks to build in by early next week, promoting a
   warmer and drier stretch.

&&

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast is out. Main change was just to adjust overnight
lows towards current trends. Otherwise, light lower elevation
rain and mountain snow showers continue to move from north to
south through the CWA this evening. The precipitation was just
north of Bozeman as of 815 PM. Overall the threat for thunder has
mostly decreased for this evening. Winds are still breezy, and
they will diminish a bit after Midnight for most areas. Weather
shouldn`t be as active on Thu, but another round of
showers/thunderstorms to affect much of North Central and Central
MT Fri afternoon/evening. Brusda

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 200 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026/

 - Meteorological Overview:

Broad upper level troughing with a few embedded shortwaves is
progressing across the region this afternoon, and will continue into
early Thursday. A mix of stratiform and showery precipitation will
continue, with areas south of US-12 having greatest probability for
a thunderstorm the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Snow
levels will begin to rise this evening, but will remain low enough to
support some high mountain snow as the stratiform precipitation
progresses southward tonight. Gusty winds continue across the region
through the evening, slowly diminishing in most areas near or after
sunset.

Lingering northwesterly flow aloft behind the departing trough will
combine with daytime heating to support showers and a few
thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon east of a Cut Bank to Great Falls
line over the plains.

East to west oriented troughing in BC/SK Friday will slowly sag
southward in the afternoon and evening, allowing for a cold front to
drop south across the region into Friday night. A stretch of rain
and high elevation snow looks to develop as a result along and
behind the front, perhaps lasting into Saturday.

By Sunday high amplitude upper level ridging begins to develop
across the eastern Pacific Ocean, slowly nudging east into early
next week. How quickly this occurs will play a large role in how
quickly the region trends warmer and drier late this weekend into
early next week. -AM

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Winds through tonight:

Stronger northwesterly flow aloft will progress across the region
tonight. Areas southeast of terrain from the Little Belts eastward
will see gusty winds persist into the night. The overall risk for
50+kt gusts in these areas is too low to warrant a High Wind
Warning, however.

Crisp overnight lows this weekend:

Temperatures cool across the region Friday into Saturday behind a
cold front. Overnight lows Saturday night into Sunday look to drop
into the 30s in many areas. While temperatures less than 32 F are
low probability at most lower elevation locations, these
temperatures are still worth a mention given we are approaching mid-
June. -AM

&&

.AVIATION...
11/06Z TAF Period

Light rain showers will continue to move from north to south
through the CWA over night and through about 18z Thu over the
eastern portions of the CWA. Snow levels will be down to 6000 feet
at times. Surface winds will continue to be windy over the eastern
portions of the CWA through the period as well. Expect some
gradually clearing from west to east after 18z on Thu, with winds
diminishing on Thu evening. Mountain/passes will be obscured
across the CWA through at least 18z on Thu, before slowly
improving after that time. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  40  71  44  70 /  60   0   0  40
CTB  42  67  41  62 /  40   0   0  80
HLN  44  72  44  74 /  20   0   0   0
BZN  38  70  39  74 /  20   0   0   0
WYS  24  62  29  70 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  33  71  38  76 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  43  70  43  67 /  90  30  20  50
LWT  39  66  40  66 / 100  10   0  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls