270
FXUS65 KTFX 072341
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
540 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Aviation Section Updated

.SYNOPSIS...

A weak cold front will continue moving southward through Southwest
Montana through this evening, with a re-enforcing cold front
surging south across the entire Northern Rockies Saturday
afternoon and evening. These fronts will bring scattered clouds
and slightly cooler temperatures to the Northern Rockies through
Sunday. Mostly dry conditions will persist until late Sunday when
a passing weather disturbance brings a better chance for showers
and thunderstorms, with these chances for precipitation lasting
through Monday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today through Sunday morning...a cold front, which passed
through the plains of North Central and Central Montana this
morning, was beginning to move across the I-90 Corridor early this
afternoon. This front will continue to advance south towards the
Idaho border through the evening hours tonight and bring gusty north
through the remaining valleys of Southwest Montana thanks to strong
pressure rises further to the north as surface high pressure slides
south along the Canadian Rockies. Weakening cold air advection into
Central and Southwest Montana behind the aforementioned front will
help to mitigate the temperature change from today`s highs through
Saturday afternoon across the valleys of Central and Southwest
Montana; however, a re-enforcing cold front surging south Saturday
afternoon (plains of North Central and Central Montana) through
Saturday evening (valleys of Central and Southwest Montana) will
then bring the "coolest" temperatures of the next week to all
locations for the day on Sunday. Predominately dry conditions are
expected throughout the period, but an inconsequential sprinkle or
mountain shower can`t be ruled out. - Moldan

Sunday afternoon through Monday... a passing shortwave begins to
exert an influence over the Northern Rockies, with scattered shower
and thunderstorm activity expanding in a southwest to northeast
fashion, peaking in coverage on Monday. Timing is not very favorable
for strong to severe storms at this time, but forecast soundings for
Monday do indicate that gusty winds may accompany some storms with
modest instability and inverted V profiles, mostly over Central and
Southwest MT.

Ensembles are in fairly good agreement with transient ridging moving
in on Tuesday and boosting temperatures to around 10 to 15 degrees
above average before a more zonal sets up for the mid-week period
and cools things down closer to average and increases winds. Aside
from a few afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms, mostly dry
conditions can be expected through early Friday. There is some
concern for low relative humidity and gusty winds on Tuesday and
Wednesday, although grassland fuels still have some moisture to give
for now. Most ensemble suites highlight a Pacific trough bringing
unsettled conditions for next weekend, but there a significant
disagreements regarding position, timing, and depth. - RCG

&&

.AVIATION...

08/00Z TAF Period

A quiet pattern for the TAF period. VFR conditions prevail through
the TAF period. Isolated light rain showers along the MT/ID border
wind down this evening. Breezy surface winds from the passing cold
front in Southwest MT decreases this evening. -Wilson

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  43  68  43  66 /  10  10  10   0
CTB  43  63  39  63 /  10  10  10   0
HLN  48  79  49  73 /   0   0  10  20
BZN  45  78  47  72 /  10  10  10  20
WYS  41  76  43  73 /  10  10  10  50
DLN  45  81  45  75 /   0   0  10  40
HVR  47  68  41  64 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  44  68  42  65 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls