718
FXUS65 KTFX 101529
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
829 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Windy and mild conditions today with well above average afternoon
   temperatures.

 - Strong winds today along the Rocky Mountain Front and locally
   further east across north-cecntral Montana.

 - Dry and unseasonably mild conditions persist through Thursday
   with a change to cooler and unsettled conditions by the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...

Today across North-central Montana it will be warm and windy with
some locations approaching record high temperatures. This
afternoon and evening along the continental divide in North-
central and Central Montana there will be light rain/snow. Across
Central and Southwestern Montana it will be warm and mostly dry.
For the update diurnals were rerun. Winds and wind gusts across
portions of North-central Montana were increased to reflect
current observations and trends. Sky grids across the area were
adjusted to better reflect current satellite imagery and the
latest model guidance. Pops along the continental divide were
increased this afternoon and evening to better reflect the latest
hi-res model guidance. The rest of the forecast is on track.

Current high wind warnings are handling the current situation
well. However this afternoon near the Sweet Grass Hills and this
evening near Geyser there is a low chance for isolated wind gusts
in excess of 55 mph. But due to this being an isolated and one
and done event a High Wind Warning is not needed for those areas
at this time. IG

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 426 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

Upper level ridge continues to slump southeast across MT this
morning beneath troughing moving through western Canada. By this
afternoon mid level flow further increases across the Northern
Rockies and MT as as the upper ridge further flattens in response
to an emebedded shortwave moving across southern AB and a
southward sagging upper level jet streak. A fairly wide plume of
mid-upper level moisture is producing plentiful high clouds and a
Chinook Arch across the area this morning, which is likely to
persist through much of the day until the shortwave passes this
evening. While favorable conditions for mountain wave wind
enhancement continue through tonight, lee-side troughing coupled
with surface high pressure west of the divide and ridgetop
stability peaking this morning will support the strongest winds
along areas immediately adjacent to the east slopes of the Rocky
Mtn Front. Increasing flow aloft and decreasing stability later
today will result in widespread gusts in excess 40 mph across most
of north-central MT by this afternoon.

Afternoon temperatures will be 10-20 degrees above seasonal averages
today with warmest readings across western portions of N-central MT,
where clouds and winds have maintained temperatures in the 50s still
early this morning. Clouds may be a limiting factor, but daily
records may be reached at Cut Bank and Great Falls.

Upper level ridging re-builds across Northern Rockies later tonight
through Thursday for continued dry and mild conditions. Models
are in good agreement to bring troughing into the Western US by
late Thursday, beginning the transition to more seasonable
temperatures and increasing chances for precipitation going into
the weekend. There are still some significant differences however
in the timing and degree of splitting that the tough undergoes
while moving inland, leading to low confidence in precipitation
details still at this time. Hoenisch

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

High wind warnings remain in effect through this evening for the
Rocky Mtn Front and adjacent plains including areas as far east as
I-15 north of Conrad, where there is a 70% or higher probability
of gusts exceeding 55 mph with similar probabilities for gusts
exceeding 75 mph for areas along the eastern slopes of the Rocky
Mtn Front, including areas along and west of US-89 north of
Pendroy.

Further east across north-central MT there is some potential for
localized gusts in excess of 55 mph, particularly with mixing this
afternoon and/or in conjuction with the shortwave passing through the
area this evening. Later this evening and overnight, conditions
may become more favorable for mountain wave development for areas
near the Southern Rocky Mtn Front and adjacent to the Little
Belts and Highwoods. With isolated coverage of stronger gusts
expected and probabilities generally less than 40% at this time,
High Wind products were not expanded, but will continue to monitored
today. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
10/12Z TAF Period

Westerly flow aloft across the Northern Rockies increases today
with gusty surface winds and mountain wave turbulence the
primarily aviation concerns. North-central MT terminals will see
increasing surface wind gusts through today with winds slightly
shifting from southwest to more westerly later this afternoon and
evening. Hoenisch

The KWYS TAF will not be issued until airport operations
resume next spring.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  68  43  58  32 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  65  37  52  27 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  61  41  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  61  34  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  48  24  47  25 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  60  33  56  31 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  64  34  57  26 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  64  38  56  30 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 9 PM MST this evening for East Glacier
Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-
Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls