941
FXUS65 KTFX 062306 AAA
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
506 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...Aviation Section Updated...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - After another cold night tonight, general dry condtions and
   above average temperatures are expected for the remainder of
   the workweek.

 - A low pressure system and cold front will then bring windy
   conditions, increased shower activity, and mostly mountain snow
   this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:

Upper-level ridging will build across the Northern Rockies and
Montana today and tomorrow, resulting in general dry and mild
conditions for much of the workweek following another cold night
tonight. An upper-level trough will split over western Canada on
Wednesday. A portion of its energy will track east and well north of
the area, bringing a slightly cooler airmass south across the plains
on Thursday. A larger portion of the upper troughs energy will dive
southwestward and offshore, leading to an amplification of the upper
ridge downstream across the western US through Friday. Dry
conditions will prevail across the area through at least Friday,
with temperatures likely to peak around 10-15 degrees above seasonal
averages on Friday. Medium-range model ensembles generally agree
that the offshore trough will progress inland this weekend, leading
to a transition to cooler and unsettled conditions by Sunday, which
may then persist into early next week.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Looking ahead to the weekend, there is reasonable confidence in a
transition to cooler, unsettled conditions. However, details
typical of this timeframe, such as the exact timing of the
trough`s push inland, remain less certain. This will influence how
long warmth lingers into Saturday, with some spread still among
ensemble members. Uncertainty increases later in the weekend due
to the interaction of additional shortwave energy dropping into
the upper trough as it moves into the Northern Rockies. This
interaction is key to determining the placement of moisture and
the overall strength of the system. Regardless of the system`s
strength, windy conditions appear likely at some point during the
weekend transition. Precipitation timing and amounts are highly
uncertain, though currently, the NBM indicates a 50-80%
probability for at least 0.10 amounts and a 30-50% probability
for amounts exceeding 0.25 late Saturday through Monday for much
of the area. - Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
07/00Z TAF Period

The TAF period remains benign with the upper level ridge in place.
Confidence for fog overnight at any TAF site remains too low to
mention. -Wilson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  33  69  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  33  68  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  32  67  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  27  65  32  70 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  17  58  22  59 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  29  64  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  31  70  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  29  67  41  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls