863
FXUS65 KTFX 300958
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
358 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few isolated showers and thunderstorms today, mostly over
  North Central MT.

- Patchy morning today as well.

- Generally dry and warm conditions expected Sunday through
  Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:
A slow moving upper level low is moving towards eastern MT this
morning. A few light showers/isolated thunderstorms are possible
today, mostly over North Central MT before the upper level low
dissipates.

After today, generally dry and warm conditions expected for much
of next week. The next chance of precipitation is either Fri or
Sat, depending on which model pans out, as the next upper level
low approaches from the southwest late next week.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
Patchy morning fog could reduce visibility below a half mile at
times, mostly before 10 AM this morning.

Otherwise, scattered showers or an isolated thunderstorm is
possible today, but overall rainfall amounts look to be on the low
side.

&&

.AVIATION...
30/06Z TAF Period.

The main concern over the next 12 hours will be fog development
across the northern plains particularly affecting KGTF and KCTB.
There is a chance for KHVR and KLWT to be impacted, however,
confidence at this time was not enough to add it to the TAF.
Additionally, the valleys of southwest Montana may develop fog but
current guidance suggests low to mid-level clouds will persist
through the night which will help ward off some of the fog
concerns. That being said, this will be a dynamic situation that
will be monitored carefully as things are likely to change as the
night goes on.

Otherwise through Saturday afternoon and evening, expect VFR
conditions to persist.   -thor

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  83  54  89  53 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  82  49  86  50 /   0  10   0   0
HLN  83  54  87  56 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  80  49  84  50 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  73  36  77  37 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  77  46  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  79  53  87  54 /  30  10   0   0
LWT  74  52  83  53 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls