491
FXUS65 KTFX 160944
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
344 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms today. An isolated
  severe storm possible.

- It turns drier and warm for the middle portion of the week.

- Potential for widespread precipitation this weekend, with snow
  levels possibly down to 6000 feet in some mountain ranges.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:
Today through Tuesday...A weak upper level disturbance is moving
eastward through the CWA this morning, producing a few light
showers. By this afternoon, expect stronger upper level
disturbances to move through Central and Southwest MT.
Thunderstorms will become more widespread, with an isolated severe
storm possible, mostly over the eastern portions of the CWA. On
Tuesday, the chance for storms will continue, but with the upper
level support being weaker, the chance for storms will be lower
and the storms are not expected to be as strong.

Wednesday and Thursday...Weak shortwave ridging will develop over
the CWA during this period. It will be just strong enough to keep
the area mostly dry for a few days, along with allowing for some
warmer temperatures to move into the CWA.

Friday through Monday...The upper level ridge begins to break down
on Friday. A southwesterly flow develops ahead of the ridge break
down, and this will allow for the airmass to become unstable.
There is the potential for another period of strong/severe storm
as we go from Friday into Saturday. By Sunday, an upper level trof
will begin to move over western MT. This will result in some
unseasonably cooler air to move southward into MT. Snow levels
could fall to near 6000 feet by next Sunday morning along the
divide and across Southwest MT. Some locations above 7000 feet
could receive a few inches of snowfall. This system starts to
exit the CWA by Monday.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
The two main concerns this week are the potential for severe
storms today and the weekend storm which could also bring in a few
severe storms and high elevation mountain snow.

The probability of severe storms is lower today, and mainly
confined to the far eastern portions of the CWA over Southwest MT.
The main impact from any severe storms today will be gusty winds,
but some hail can`t be ruled out.

For the weekend storm, most forecast models agree that by next
Sunday it will be cooler, with a chance for rain/snow. Snow levels
could fall to near 6000 feet by next Sunday morning. This system
is still a few days away, so some adjustments to the forecast will
occur over the next few days. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
16/12Z TAF Period

A few light showers will affect Southwest/Central MT through
about 18z. Otherwise, expect a bit more scattered
showers/thunderstorms to redevelop after 18z, with
Central/Southwest MT the most impacted area. Some storms could
produce gusty winds. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail. Mountains/passes could be obscured at times by passing
thunderstorms. Brusda

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  77  51  81  50 /  30  20  20  10
CTB  77  47  79  47 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  77  52  81  52 /  60  40  20   0
BZN  77  48  77  47 /  60  40  40  10
WYS  73  38  69  36 /  40  30  40  10
DLN  77  46  73  45 /  60  40  20   0
HVR  82  50  84  51 /  10  10  30  30
LWT  71  47  73  49 /  60  30  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls