689
FXUS65 KTFX 010959
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
359 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more cool day, before afternoon temperatures begin to warm a
  bit.

- A light rain shower is possible today, mostly over North
  Central MT, but any rainfall today should be lighter than
  yesterday.

- Monday is looking to be the warmest day over the next week or
  so, with some record high temperatures possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:
A moist westerly flow aloft continues to reside over MT this
morning. This will result in another day of cool temperatures,
mostly cloudy skies and a small chance for a light rain shower,
mostly over North Central MT. There is not a lot of upper level
support for the showers today, thus any rainfall should be
lighter than yesterday.

After a cool day today, expect afternoon temperatures to rise/fall
about 4 to 8 degrees daily over the next few days. So we will have
a mix of warm/cool days starting this weekend and going into early
next week.

Weak upper level ridging on Monday, combined with a bit stronger
westerly winds will allow for a warm day, with some areas
approaching record high temperatures for this time of year.
Elevated fire conditions are possible on Monday because of the low
humidity, increased winds and warm temperatures.

Little to no precipitation is currently forecast from this Friday
well into next week. It is looking like the next chance for some
more widespread precipitation might be next Thu/Fri when an upper
level disturbance is forecast to move southward through the CWA.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
Overall the chance for record high temperatures on Monday is the
main impact weather over the next few days. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
01/126Z TAF Period.

Expect mid/high level clouds over the CWA through the period.
There is enough moisture aloft that a light rain shower is
possible today, mostly over North Central MT. Mountains/passes
could be obscured at times today by clouds/light showers. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  42  78  47 /  20   0   0   0
CTB  60  37  71  41 /  20  10   0   0
HLN  68  42  76  46 /  20   0   0   0
BZN  67  39  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  67  31  68  33 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  71  41  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  64  36  76  40 /  20   0   0   0
LWT  62  39  77  45 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls