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000
FXUS65 KTFX 161127
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
527 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2019

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...

Disturbances will move through the region through
tonight, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms especially
over southwest and central parts of the state. Temperatures are
likely to be a few degrees below normal, but mostly dry and breezy
conditions are expected.

$$

.DISCUSSION...

Today...Disturbance crosses the area early this morning, with winds
shifting west with gusts 15 to 20 mph today, especially over the
plains. Some partial clearing is also likely this morning with weak
subsidence as the disturbance departs. However, by afternoon
moisture and instability will once again increase as yet another
disturbance approaches from the west. Shower and thunderstorm
activity will be more focused along a mid-level frontal boundary
that looks to develop across central and southwest parts of the
state, with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms likely in
these areas this afternoon into the evening. A few thunderstorms may
be strong to severe, with damaging winds and hail the primary
threats. The passage of the main disturbance during the overnight
will result in clearing of the precipitation and clouds across the
region toward sunrise Wednesday morning.

Wednesday through Tuesday...

Drier conditions are then expected for Wednesday through Friday.
Breezy westerly winds may develop over the plains on Thursday and
Friday, which may combine with low RH values to cause some fire
weather concerns. The next somewhat significant chance for
precipitation appears to be Saturday. Models seem to be coming into
agreement on upper level high pressure ridging building over the
area Sunday through early next week, with temperatures by early next
week rising into the upper 80s to lower 90s. There is still enough
model disagreement in the upper level pattern to warrant at least
some mention of showers/storms Sunday-Tuesday in at least parts of
the TFX area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 527 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2019 (12Z TAFs)

VFR conditions are generally expected throughout the duration of the
TAF period. Expect re-development of showers and thunderstorms again
Tuesday, this time more heavily focused over southwest and central
MT, impacting primarily KBZN, KEKS, and KLWT terminals, and possibly
KHLN. Precipitation and clouds begin to clear the area toward the
end of the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  78  53  79  57 /  30  40  10   0
CTB  75  49  75  52 /  20  10   0   0
HLN  78  52  80  55 /  50  50   0   0
BZN  76  48  80  50 /  60  60  10  10
WEY  75  40  74  42 /  40  50  10   0
DLN  75  46  77  50 /  80  50   0   0
HVR  80  53  82  56 /  40  10  10  10
LWT  73  51  75  53 /  40  50  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls