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000
FXUS65 KTFX 132356
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
500 PM MST Tue Nov 13 2018

Aviation Section Updated

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure shifts east across Montana today for continued dry
conditions and milder temperatures. Windy conditions will be
widespread across north-central Montana. Strong winds develop this
afternoon and evening along the east slopes of the Rockies,
continuing through Wednesday evening. Milder than average conditions
continue into Thursday before a quick moving winter weather system
brings a period of snow and colder temperatures Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level ridge axis shifts east across the region today and
tonight with a deepening lee-side trough east of the Rockies. Winds
aloft increase and a strengthening pressure gradient across the
Continental Divide will support the development of wind gusts in
excessive of 50KT along the east slopes this afternoon. Shortwave
tracking across Alberta tonight will extend strong winds into
portions of Glacier county, including the Cut Bank area. As a
result, a High Wind Warning remains in effect. Gusty winds are
anticipated across much of North Central MT today and tomorrow,
diminishing into Thursday ahead of an incoming trough.

A trough moves SE from BC/AB into the region Thursday night. Cold
air surges south into MT with this trough with falling temperatures
likely through the day Friday. Snow is likely beginning late
Thursday night and continuing through the day Friday across central
and southwest portions of the forecast area. Snowfall estimates
still indicate about 2-4 inches across a good portion of the
forecast area from Cut Bank SE to Bozeman with 4-8 inches in the
mountains. Gusty north winds behind the front could add blowing and
drifting snow to the impacts with this system. While quick moving,
cool conditions continue into Saturday before a return to dry, more
mild, and not quite as windy conditions for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 2355Z.
Overall VFR conditions will prevail over the region through
Thursday. However, gusty west winds are expected at times,
especially over the Rocky Mountain Front and the adjacent Plains
tonight through Wednesday. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  33  48  34  47 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  31  43  30  43 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  26  48  32  48 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  19  45  26  46 /   0   0   0   0
WEY   6  39  12  39 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  20  47  23  47 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  30  49  30  46 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  31  51  31  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to midnight MST
Wednesday night Eastern Glacier.

High Wind Warning until midnight MST Wednesday night Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls