


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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953 FXUS65 KTFX 231451 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 851 AM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler weather will continue through today before gradually warming up through the week. - Daily chances for isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the work week. && .UPDATE... A surface pressure trough this morning can continue to produce a few isolated showers across North-Central MT and the Continental Divide this morning. Fog is currently lifting with surface heating from the sun kicking in. Though, satellite trends shows fog around the West Yellowstone area can linger for a few more hours this morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms move in this afternoon, particularly across North-Central MT. Thunderstorm develop doesn`t look robust. -Wilson && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 533 AM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: The system that has brought rain and snow to our region over the past couple days will continue its departure to the east leaving just enough moisture behind to allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Otherwise, no widespread significant moisture is expected through the rest of the day. Behind this system, southwest flow will set up and remain through much of the week allowing temperatures to moderate back to near to above normal through at least Friday. Throughout the week, weak shortwaves are expected to move through providing just enough moisture and forcing to kick of daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the region. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Fog This Morning: There is still a concern for fog developing this morning across the southwest valleys and portions of the northern plains. A couple areas of fog have started to show up on satellite in southwest Montana but so far conditions have either stayed just dry enough or just cloudy enough to prevent any widespread fog from developing. The prevailing thought is the fog is unlikely to be widespread or dense enough to warrant any advisories but motorists should be prepared to encounter patches of low visibility in fog-prone areas that received rain and/or snow last night. Daily Thunderstorm Risk: There will be a daily chance for isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms across our region through the work week. For the most part, little in terms of accumulation is expected although locally higher amounts are possible under heavier showers. As of now, there is no one day in particular this week that stands out with the potential for severe weather across our portion of Montana. Generally we can expect typical afternoon thunderstorms with the potential for one or two stronger storms that may produce gusty winds and small hail. But otherwise the dynamics are generally lacking in our region for severe weather. Potential Warmup Next Week: There is increasing agreement between the models for warmer temperatures arriving by early next week. Ensemble clusters point towards a ridge building over the western CONUS starting this weekend and lasting through at least Tuesday. As of now, it is too early to tell exactly how hot it will get. But the latest model guidance suggests there is a greater than 70% chance for highs exceeding 85 and a 30-50% chance of highs exceeding 90 across the plains and valleys of north-central, central, and southwest Montana early next week. && .AVIATION... 23/12Z TAF Period Potential for fog development exists at most terminals for a brief period early this morning, though surface winds to around 10 kts across north-central MT and lingering scattered mid-level clouds across southwest MT remain a limiting factor, with lower river valleys (including KHVR) and higher elevations basins (including KWYS) having the highest probability for fog impacts. Next disturbance rotating through the Northern Rockies will bring an increase in mid-level clouds again late this morning with a few showers across N-central MT and somewhat breezy west winds developing by this afternoon. Hoenisch Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 69 43 79 49 / 20 20 0 10 CTB 65 40 75 45 / 20 20 0 0 HLN 69 44 79 50 / 30 20 10 10 BZN 71 39 78 43 / 20 20 10 10 WYS 61 25 69 30 / 20 20 20 10 DLN 64 36 72 40 / 20 0 10 0 HVR 71 45 79 50 / 20 20 0 0 LWT 66 41 75 48 / 20 20 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls