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000
FXUS65 KTFX 200959
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
359 AM MDT Fri May 20 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered areas of rain and snow will continue this morning, while
drier conditions are expected this afternoon. Temperatures will be
about 15 degrees below normal this afternoon. After a cold night
tonight, expect a gradual warming trend over the next few days, with
afternoon temperatures close to 10 degrees above normal by the
middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today...The last significant band of precipitation is moving
southward through North Central MT at 4 AM. Expect most of the
steady snow to diminish by 6 AM over the Rocky Mountain Front and
between 9 AM and Noon over Central MT. Thus the ending times of
the current WSW look on track. For Southwest MT, most of the
impactful snowfall is occurring over mountain passes, thus I`ll
issue another SPS to cover for this during the morning commute.
Afternoon temperatures will be about 15 degrees below normal
today, with isolated showers possible.

Tonight through Tuesday...Drier conditions will develop tonight as
skies clear out a bit. This will allow for the potential for some
fog to develop. For now the fog looks patchy and no highlights are
planned for, but it is possible some dense fog does develop on
Saturday morning and if it is widespread enough a highlight might
be needed. Otherwise, expect a slow, but gradual warming trend
during this period. The airmass will be unstable enough over the
weekend for a few showers/thunderstorms, mainly during the
afternoon hours over Southwest MT.

Wednesday through Friday...much warmer temperatures are expected
during this period, with afternoon highs close to 15 degrees above
normal. This will allow for lower afternoon humidity, but also
increase snowmelt out of the mountains. Overall, no fire or hydro
highlights are expected at this time for late next week. There is
the potential that the next storm system could arrive by late next
Friday or Saturday of Memorial Day weekend. Brusda


&&

.AVIATION...
400 AM MDT Fri May 20 2022 (20/12Z TAF period)

Rain/snow continues to move from north to south through Central
and Southwest MT. Expect most of the steady precipitation to begin
to diminish after 15z, with just a few isolated showers around
this afternoon. IFR or lower conditions likely at times through
mid morning. For now, I don`t have any fog at the terminals on
Saturday morning, but that might be possible if we clear out
enough. Mountains/passes will be obscured through at least 18z
today. Brusda

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  27  50  27 /  80  10  10   0
CTB  48  27  50  27 /  50   0   0   0
HLN  50  31  55  32 /  50  10   0  10
BZN  48  25  52  29 /  40  10  10  10
WYS  45  19  49  21 /  30  10  20  20
DLN  49  25  52  29 /  30  20  10  20
HVR  51  32  52  30 /  20  10  10   0
LWT  44  26  45  26 /  70  20  30   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT early this morning Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT today Cascade...Judith
Basin...Meagher.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today Fergus.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls