240
FXUS21 KWNC 131851
PMDTHR
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST February 13 2026

SYNOPSIS: During week-2, mid-level high pressure is forecast across the Bering
Sea, with mid-level low pressure across eastern Alaska extending into western
Canada and the northwestern contiguous U.S. (CONUS). These features persist
throughout the period and are supportive of an extended period of heavy
precipitation, coastal high winds, and high elevation snowfall across the
Pacific Northwest, along with colder temperatures over much of Alaska. For the
remainder of the CONUS east of the Rockies, individual disturbances may bring
episodes of heavy precipitation over parts of the East or wintry weather along
the Northern Tier, although exact timing and placement is uncertain.

HAZARDS

Moderate risk of heavy precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and far
northern California, Sat-Fri, Feb 21-27.

Slight risk of heavy precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and northern
California, Sat-Fri, Feb 21-27.

Moderate risk of heavy snow across the Cascades and Klamath Mountains, Sat-Fri,
Feb 21-27.

Slight risk of heavy snow across portions of the Cascades, Klamath Mountains,
and Sierra Nevada Mountains, Sat-Fri, Feb 21-27.

Slight risk of heavy snow across portions of the Interior West, Sat-Fri, Feb
21-27.

Moderate risk of high winds across coastal portions of Washington, Oregon, and
northwestern California, Sat-Fri, Feb 21-27.

Slight risk of high winds along much of the West Coast, Sat-Fri, Feb 21-27.

Moderate risk of much below-normal temperatures across southern Mainland Alaska
and Southeast Alaska, Sat-Fri, Feb 21-27.

Slight risk of much below-normal temperatures across much of southern Alaska,
Sat-Fri, Feb 21-27.

Slight risk of high winds across the eastern Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and
along the southern Mainland Coast to Southeast Alaska, Sat-Fri, Feb 21-27.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR MONDAY FEBRUARY 16 - FRIDAY FEBRUARY 20:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

FOR SATURDAY FEBRUARY 21 - FRIDAY FEBRUARY 27: The GEFS, ECMWF, and Canadian
ensembles are in good agreement regarding a mid-level trough persisting across
western North America during week-2 in conjunction with a negative phase of the
Pacific North American (-PNA) pattern. With the negative height anomaly center
predicted to shift northward to Southeast Alaska, the greatest onshore flow is
favored to be directed into the Pacific Northwest. This may be further enhanced
as positive 500-hPa height anomalies build over the eastern Pacific during the
second half of the period resulting in a stronger mid-level pressure gradient.
The ECMWF Probabilistic Extremes Tool (PET) continues to depict probabilities
of 20-30 percent for 3-day precipitation totals exceeding the 85th
climatological percentile and 1.5-inches, with the GEFS PET increasing these
chances to 30-40 percent early in the period. While integrated Vapor Transport
(IVT) values are generally lower early in the period, there is a gradual uptick
toward 250 kg/m/s later in week-2. Signals are pointing to an extended period
of enhanced precipitation, with the GEFS, ECMWF, and Canadian ensemble means
depicting upwards of 4-inches over some areas of the Pacific Northwest for
week-2 as a whole. While some of the tools are more marginal, particularly
early in the period, the persistent pattern and long duration of heavy
precipitation leaned toward introducing a moderate risk of heavy precipitation
across the Pacific Northwest and far northern California for all of week-2. A
corresponding moderate risk for high winds is added across portions of coastal
Washington, Oregon, and northwestern California where the GEFS and ECMWF PETs
depict an enhanced signal for wind speeds of 25-40 mph. At the higher
elevations of the Cascades and Klamath, the uncalibrated ECWMF depicts
probabilities of at least 40 percent for 3-day snowfall totals greater than
12-inches. While the uncalibrated GEFS is drier compared to the ECMWF, its
corresponding snow water equivalent (SWE) PET depicts some of these areas
having at least a 40 percent chance of 3-day SWE greater than 1-inch supporting
a moderate risk for heavy snow. As temperatures trend colder during late
February, there could be an increasing chance of winter weather hazards such as
freezing rain and/or snow across the lower elevations of the Pacific Northwest.
Forecast confidence is too low to specify any related snow hazards at time, but
this will continue to be monitored.



A slight risk of heavy precipitation extends further south into California to
just north of San Francisco. While no areas of flooding are noted in today`s
outlook, any areas that do receive heavy precipitation will have an elevated
risk of localized urban and small stream flash flooding, especially given the
persistence of the wet pattern. Slight risks of high winds and heavy snow
extend through the central California coast and the Sierra Nevadas
respectively. A slight risk of heavy snow is also highlighted further inland
across portions of the Northern and Central Rockies where 3-day snowfall totals
greater than 6-inches are possible based on the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles. The
much snowier latter half of February will be welcomed across the West as snow
water equivalent (SWE) is currently below 50 percent of average for much of the
Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and California.



Periodic shortwave disturbances may continue to eject out of the Rockies
bringing intermittent periods of active weather into parts of the central and
eastern CONUS. Gusty winds and fire weather related hazards cannot be ruled out
across the eastern Rockies and Great Plains. There are some elevated signals
for heavy precipitation in the GEFS and ECMWF PETs across portions of the
Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys toward the middle of the period tied to
frontal activity. Wintry weather also remains possible across the Northern
Tier, but signals are weaker in the guidance compared to yesterday and the GEFS
SWE PET no longer depicts significant probabilities SWE exceeds the 85th
climatological percentile. Given decreasing confidence, and uncertainty related
to timing and exact track of individual shortwave features, no hazards are
posted east of the Rockies in today`s outlook.



Due to the amplified ridge over the Bering Sea and anomalous northerly flow,
below-normal temperatures are likely throughout Alaska. The moderate risk of
much below normal temperatures is extended throughout southern Mainland Alaska
for all of week-2 where temperatures at least 20 deg F below-normal are
possible based on the uncalibrated ECMWF and GEFS ensembles. For Southeast
Alaska, the GEFS PETs depict greater than a 50 percent chance of minimum
temperatures falling below the 10th climatological percentile during the first
half of the period. Probabilities in the ECMWF PET are slightly lower across
Southeast Alaska, but begin to increase above 40 percent later in week-2 across
the southwestern Mainland. A slight risk for much below normal temperatures
extends slightly farther north across the Alaska Mainland, and into the Alaska
Peninsula. A tightening pressure gradient tied to surface high pressure over
the Bering Sea and low pressure near southeastern Alaska supports a slight risk
of high winds across the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula, extending to
Southeast Alaska for the entire period. High winds combined with cold
temperatures may result in dangerous wind chill values over some areas further
supporting the moderate risk. Interior areas of the Mainland may experience
wind chill values of less than -20 deg F (-40 deg F locally).

FORECASTER: Thomas Collow

$$