272
FXUS21 KWNC 301901
PMDTHR
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT July 30 2026

SYNOPSIS: A broad area of mid-level high pressure is anticipated to expand and
amplify from the end of week-1 into the beginning of week-2, which may slightly
amplify mid-period before shifting eastward to the central and eastern CONUS,
with mid-level low pressure across the Pacific Northwest and Northeast. This
pattern favors widespread increased potential of extreme heat across the CONUS
shifting from the western to central and east-central CONUS over time. The
combination of anomalously warm and drier than normal conditions is expected to
enhance the risk for wildfire activity where numerous wildfire incidents have
been reported within highlighted heat risk areas. Antecedent dryness along with
the likelihood of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation
during the next two weeks supports an increased risk for the Rapid Onset of
Drought to parts of the Central and Southern Plains, and Middle and Lower
Mississippi Valley. A more favorable monsoonal circulation supports an
increased and potentially prolonged risk of heavy precipitation across the
Desert Southwest and lower Four Corners.

HAZARDS

Moderate risk of extreme heat for portions of the West, Great Plains, Middle
and Lower Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys, Fri-Sat, Aug 7-8.

Slight risk of extreme heat for most of the CONUS excluding the north-central
and northeastern CONUS, and Appalachians, Fri-Thu, Aug 7-13.

Slight risk of heavy precipitation for parts of the Desert Southwest and
adjacent regions, Fri-Thu, Aug 7-13.

Rapid onset drought (ROD) possible for parts of the Central and Southern
Plains, and Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SUNDAY AUGUST 02 - THURSDAY AUGUST 06:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

FOR FRIDAY AUGUST 07 - THURSDAY AUGUST 13: Multiple ensembles indicate
amplified mid-level ridging across much of the CONUS excluding the Pacific
Northwest and Northeast during week-2. The ridge is anticipated to peak at the
end of week-1 and beginning of week-2, possibly deamplifying slightly by the
middle of week-2 and gradually shifting to the central and east-central CONUS
by day 12 (July 11) before possibly restrengthening. Peak 500-hPa heights in
the ECENS (GEFS) are anticipated to reach 597 (595) dm across the Southwest at
the beginning of the period. This pattern favors widespread above-normal
temperatures across the CONUS excluding northern New England, with broad areas
of increased likelihood of extreme heat across much of the CONUS. The high risk
of extreme heat in yesterday`s outlook is discontinued in today`s, with the
pattern and heat signals peaking more towards the end of week-1 over the
western U.S. A moderate risk of extreme heat (40-60% chance) is extended
further east in today`s outlook to include much of the West, and portions of
the Great Plains, Middle and Lower Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys,
Aug 7-8. The slight risk (20-40% chance) has likewise been expanded further
east covering most of the CONUS excluding the north-central and northeastern
CONUS, and Appalachians for the entirety of week-2. The area in the Northeast
has been discontinued today due to timing out during week-1. Enhanced dewpoints
east of the Rockies may support higher heat index values. Dry air temperatures
or heat index values may exceed 110 deg F across parts of the Desert Southwest
and central CONUS, and 100 deg F in many other of the highlighted heat risk
areas. The National Blend of Models (NBM) forecasts temperatures to approach
and/or break records for nighttime minimums across the southwestern and
southeastern CONUS, implying little overnight relief to the heat. Near to
exceeding record high temperatures are possible across the southwestern and
south-central CONUS. The combination of anomalously warm and drier than normal
conditions is expected to be favorable for wildfire activity where numerous
wildfire incidents (both contained and ongoing) have been reported within these
elevated heat risk areas.



A Rapid Onset Drought (ROD) risk is designated for parts of the Central and
Southern Plains, and Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley where 30-day
precipitation deficits are greater than 2 inches and continued dryness and heat
are forecast through early August.



Across the Southwest, deterministic and ensemble based ECMWF solutions continue
to point to increased dewpoints and total precipitable water content
overspreading the Sonoran Desert, consistent with a Gulf of California moisture
surge event by late next week. Given that tropical cyclone activity in the
eastern Pacific is favored to calm down in the wake of Genevieve, any gulf
surge potential is most likely tied to the precursor pairing of a strong
thermal low established over Arizona and easterly wave activity moving off of
the Sinaloa Highlands of western Mexico to initiate a moisture event. Based on
raw and calibrated precipitation tools, a slight risk of heavy precipitation
remains posted and continues to be valid for all of week-2 due to the
persistence of wet signals in the ECMWF PET associated with a favorable
monsoonal circulation where additional gulf surge events are possible later in
the period.

FORECASTER: Melissa Ou

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