665
FXUS63 KTOP 162314
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
614 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures continue to warm into the upper 90s, near 100 degrees
  this weekend into early next week. Dangerous heat is of concern
  as heat indices up to 105 are probable over east central Kansas.

- Widely scattered sub-severe storms are expected this afternoon
  (20-40%), mainly over portions of east central and far northern
  Kansas. Brief downpours and lightning are the main hazards.

- A weak frontal boundary moves into the region next week, signaling increased
  precipitation chances. Lack of deep moisture however lends to low
  confidence at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Similar upper air pattern in place this afternoon with the cutoff
low bringing very heavy rainfall to south Texas while the ridge
dominates much of the CONUS region. Subtle embedded perturbations
are noted lifting north and west towards northeast Kansas, providing
enough lift amid no inhibition for widely scattered storms to
develop between 2 and 8 PM this evening. Other than the threat for
lightning and brief, heavy downpours, severe storms are not
anticipated given the weak wind shear in place. Additional widely
scattered storms may redevelop once again Friday, however latest
guidance trends focus the shortwave trough over southern Kansas
during peak heating. Lingering cloud cover throughout the day Friday
may also limit temperatures to near 90 degrees.

Warming temperatures become the primary hazard of the forecast as
the upper ridge currently over the Rockies shifts eastward this
weekend. Warm low level advection increases as H85 temps are
consistent among models from 23-26C, mixing down to the sfc by late
afternoon. There may be little relief overnight as forecast lows are
in the 70s. Dewpoints are more uncertain with a high spread noted in
the NBM 25th-75th percentiles. If we mix down additional drier air,
our temperatures will be warmer whereas higher dewpoints also result
in higher heat indices. Based on the current setup as the ridge
sticks around through early next week, we may need to consider heat
headlines for possibly Sunday, but especially on Monday where peak
heat indices reach around 105 in portions of east central Kansas.

Upper trough digs into the northeast CONUS on Tuesday, shunting the
ridge southward and transitioning flow aloft to the northwest. A
weak frontal boundary is progged to sink south into the region in
the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe with operational models developing
low QPF along the front. Model ensembles however are trending drier
as 6 hr QPF probabilities of at least 0.01 or 20% or less. Even
though the moisture availability is scarce, mostly cloudy skies and
cooler, north winds drop highs back to near normal values in the low
90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Afternoon showers and storms continue to diminish in coverage and
generally decay over the next hour. Expect that SCT mid clouds
remain into the evening and part of the overnight. Winds veer to the
SSW into the morning tomorrow with FEW low-level clouds in the BL.
Any fog potential overnight looks too low to mention with partial
mixing in the BL with winds slightly stronger just off the surface.
If any fog is able to form as clouds clear into the sunrise time
frame then would expect any ground fog to be very shallow but could
be slightly deeper at TOP due to moisture from the recent brief
storm.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Drake