596
FXUS63 KTOP 280524
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1224 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and isolated storm chances increase from south to north
  overnight.

- Highest rain chances (40-60%) are today into Friday, followed
  by hit or miss showers and storms this weekend. Severe
  weather potential remains very low.

- Near average temperatures are forecast Thursday through early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite and upper air analysis
showed an upper level low over central CA. A low amplitude upper
level trough was located across north TX. The northern stream branch
of the upper level jet was located across central Canada, then dipped
down southeast across the eastern Great Lakes, into New England. An
upper level ridge was centered across the eastern northern Plains.
The mid and upper level flow was across KS was from the southeast.

The 17Z surface maps showed a ridge of high pressure over the Mid MS
River Valley, extending southwest into southeast KS. Winds were
light from the east across the southern counties, and southeast
across the northern counties.


Tonight through Thursday:

The upper low will dig southeast into southern NV. The mid level
perturbation over northern TX, will lift northward into western KS
and OK by 00Z Friday. Initially the mid level flow will be
southeasterly across eastern KS but through the day as the minor
perturbation lifts north, the mid level flow will veer more to the
south, and southwest but remain very light under 10 KTS. An area of
isentropic lift combined with ascent ahead of the H5 perturbation
will cause scattered showers and a few thunderstorm to develop
across northern OK and southern KS, extending northwest into western
KS. This area of showers and thunderstorms will lift northward
through the day and will reach areas north of I-70 during the
afternoon hours. There will continue to be the advection of dry air
parcels around the surface ridge across the northeast counties. thus
it may take until Thursday evening for the showers to reach the
northeast counties of the CWA. Most CAMs are slower shifting the
showers and storms northward across the the CWA during the day on
Thursday.

Thursday night through Wednesday:

Richer moisture will be in place across the eastern KS through the
period. The weak perturbation across OK will shift north and begin
to dissipate Friday night. However the upper low across the
southwest US will begin to fill as if lifts northeast across the
central Rockies by Sunday, and into the northern High Plains by
Tuesday night. The southeast quadrant of this H5 trough may provide
enough lift, given richer moisture in place, and a weak CAP for
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms through the periods. The
best chances will occur during the late afternoon hours and into the
night. High temperatures Thursday through Friday will only reach the
lower 80s due to more cloud cover and chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms. The vertical wind shear looks weak, so I do not
expect any organized severe thunderstorms.  A lee surface trough
will begin to deepen along the high Plains allowing for southerly
winds with highs reaching the mid 80s Sunday and Monday.

The LREF shows most of the area getting between 1 to 1.5 inches of
rainfall from Tuesday afternoon through next Monday. The northeast
counties will receive between .5 to 1 inch. The southern and
southwest counties may receive 1.5 to 2 inches of rainfall.

Once the western H5 trough lifts northeast into the northern high
Plains on Monday night, we should see less ascent and lower PoPs,
may be even less that 10 percent next Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs
will continue to reach the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Conditions begin the period VFR before showers and embedded
thunderstorms approach terminals after sunrise. Confidence has
increased in at least intermittent precipitation at all terminals,
with KMHK having higher chances than KTOP/KFOE. Input a TEMPO/PROB30
group for most likely timing of any TS, but think storms should
be fairly isolated. Could see some MVFR cigs with heavier rain showers
or any storms. Coverage of rain appears to lessen this evening before
increasing again near the end or just beyond this TAF period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Flanagan