017
FXUS63 KTOP 012311
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
611 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible (20%)
 this afternoon for portions of central and east central Kansas.

- Areas of frost develop once again early Saturday morning, mainly
 north of Interstate 70 with lows in the lower 30s.

- Marginally strong to severe storms could form along a front late
  Monday afternoon into the evening. Much uncertainty remains on the
  front`s location and severity of storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Broad upper trough axis and meridional flow is observed over the
northern plains this afternoon with the low`s center towards the
Quebec province. Much of the moisture and thunderstorms are
concentrated in the south central and southeast CONUS today and is
remains the case throughout the weekend. An embedded weak wave
passing south into Kansas this afternoon may generate scattered
showers in north central and central Kansas. Forecast soundings
exhibit high cloud bases while elevated instability is 100-200 J/KG.
Severe weather is not expected today, however a few lightning
strikes cannot be ruled out.

Areas of frost once again develop after midnight as sfc high axis
slides into northeast Kansas. Guidance is fairly uniform in lows
Saturday morning in the lower 30s north of I-70, however could also
see patchy frost in low lying areas along the I-70 corridor as
readings drop into the middle 30s. High pressure axis influences the
cooler high temps in the middle 60s Saturday afternoon before a lee
trough deepens in response to the incoming upper low into southern CA
on Sunday. Warming, downsloping flow boosts highs into the low 80s
throughout the region on Sunday.

Northern stream troughing forces a front into the area by Monday
afternoon as the southern stream jet max spreads into the central
plains. Modified, return moisture from the Gulf is not impressive,
approaching the upper 50s by Monday evening. In addition, a strong
EML may limit the probability for severe, sfc-based storms initially
along the boundary. As the evening goes on, a strengthening low
level jet initiates elevated thunderstorms from central into eastern
Kansas. Will continue to monitor trends into the weekend as timing
and location of the front are key to where severe probabilities
exist Monday evening. Several embedded waves traverse the region
Tuesday through Wednesday as another northern stream trough
gradually picks up the southern cutoff low. As the area is well
behind the front, scattered precip chances are in the form of rain
showers and non-severe storms during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR prevails. Winds turn calm and skies clear overnight. High
pressure controls conditions through Saturday, keeping skies mainly
clear and winds light.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Teefey