447
FXUS63 KTOP 301949
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
249 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat remains the primary element of concern through the period
with the dewpoint temperatures remaining high. Expect heat index
values to approach or reach 105 degrees.

- Generally less than 30% chances for showers with an embedded
lightning strike or two each day the rest of the week mainly across
central into north-central areas.

- Heat may continue into the 4th of July but have held off expansion
of the heat headlines for now until confidence increases in the
overall setup.

- Could see storms move into the region late Saturday night if
trends hold but predictability is low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Not much change in the pattern or to the going forecast considering
the somewhat stagnant upper air pattern in place. An anticyclone
remains anchored over the southeastern CONUS with an amplified
trough over the western CONUS. The forecast area remains wedged in
the middle ground with persistent moist flow into the region
allowing for elevated dewpoints to remain in place with surface
quasi-stationary frontal boundary over western Kansas and Nebraska.

The leads to low chance POPs most every day primarily in the morning
and part of the day time frame as nocturnal flow increases with
isentropic upglide maximizing across the area into the early morning
into midday time frames.  Any storms that may become severe this
evening into the early overnight period are expected to initiate
over southwestern and western KS areas. As these work east they are
generally expected to weaken and eventually become showers and then
dissipate as they work east into a stabilizing BL.

Dewpoints this time of year become a primary focus due to the
generally warming temperatures that are typically common. Thus, heat
is a concern through the period as the upper ridge gradually expands
northwest into the area again by Thursday and Friday and possibly
extending into Saturday. As height rises, expect dewpoints to remain
stubbornly high leading to heat index values that continue to be
into the upper 90s and into the middle 100s. Spreads in temperatures
and dewpoints favor the 75th percentiles and higher with ensemble
cluster data suggesting this should be on track with the overall
height rises and the persistent low level flow helping to keep
dewpoints steady. Will continue to watch the overall trend to ensure
Saturday is indeed under the more commonly referenced "heat dome"
before expanding the warning into that time.

Some uncertainty in the overall upper level pattern into Saturday
night takes place and where any potential MCS development may or may
not track into the area, but if this comes to fruition, it would
likely be well after dark into the overnight period. This is the
most important day and the most uncertain at this time in the
forecast.  Will have to check back for trends which will begin to
become more clear over the next few cycles.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

VFR conditions can be expected much if not the entire period. The
upper level pattern could lead to another round of showers into
early Wednesday morning but confidence too low to mention for now.
Depending on if the gusts tend to drop into the overnight period,
could approach marginal LLWS conditions but if gusts remain elevated
into the overnight period, LLWS will likely not become a noticeable
effect. Holding off mention for now.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Record Warmest Low Temperature


June 30
              Record (Year)            Forecast
Topeka          77 (1911, 1917, 1931
                    1933, 1970, 2020)     80
Concordia       79 (2011)                 79

July 1
              Record (Year)            Forecast
Topeka          82 (1933)                 78
Concordia       86 (1933)                 76

July 2
              Record (Year)            Forecast
Topeka          78 (1925)                 77
Concordia       78 (1974)                 74

July 3
              Record (Year)            Forecast
Topeka          79 (1911, 1999, 2012)     77
Concordia       80 (1934)                 74

July 4
              Record (Year)            Forecast
Topeka          81 (1911, 1969)           77
Concordia       82 (1934)                 75

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-
KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-
KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Drake
CLIMATE...Flanagan/Griesemer