518
FXUS63 KTOP 111100
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
500 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures remain above normal through early next week, likely
  much above normal after the weekend.

- Mainly dry through Friday with rain chances remaining Friday
  night into Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

500 mb heights and 850 mb temperatures remain above normal
throughout this forecast again this cycle. Upper ridging slowly
builds east into the central Plains through late Friday. Surface
high pressure moves east today with modest winds and similar highs
to Tuesday under some cirrus. A weak wave in the northern branch of
the westerlies drops southeast across the northern Plains and
western Great Lakes tonight into Thursday, leading to modest low-
level warm-air advection into the local area tonight into midday
Thursday. This brings somewhat warmer temperatures for Thursday,
with perhaps enough moisture aloft to create very light rain or
sprinkles in east-central Kansas. Early day sun should lead to a
slightly warmer Friday.

There continues to be variance in the track of a southern branch
wave as it moves across the southern Plains Friday night into
Saturday. NBM 25th-percentile 24-hour QPF remains zero but 75th-
percentile values have dropped considerably. Mid-range PoPs seem
reasonable with any precip still looking to be rain.

Upper ridging builds quickly Sunday into Monday downstream of west
coast troughing. Southerly flow increases near the surface for
another significant warm-up with breezy to possibly windy conditions.
01Z NBM depicts 60-90 percent chances for highs 20 degrees above
normal for Monday and Tuesday. Will need to monitor fire weather
conditions for these periods but at this point relative humidity
levels look to stay above 30 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions will continue in a dry lower troposphere. Surface
high pressure not far to the northeast will keep winds light
under some cirrus.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage