926
FXUS63 KTOP 010528
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1228 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated storms this afternoon/evening and
  again on Friday.

- Temperatures falling into the 30s tonight supports frost
  formation across portions of north-central Kansas and along
  the Kansas-Nebraska stateline. A Frost Advisory has been
  issued.

- Saturday morning`s lows could favor frost formation again.

- Turning warmer Sunday with increasing precipitation chances
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Zonal flow continues across the Central Plains today with a closed
low near the Great Lakes and another moving into Baja California. A
shortwave moving through the flow has pushed a weak surface front
into the area. This boundary may serve as a focus for showers and a
few storms to develop this afternoon and evening. Instability and
shear are weak, so not expecting any strong storms and this activity
will wane through the evening as the shortwave and front push south
of the area. Surface high pressure moves in tonight with clearing
skies and light winds allowing temperatures to fall into the mid to
upper 30s. Passing clouds may keep lows a degree or two warmer than
forecast, but NBM has a 60-90% chance of temperatures falling to at
least 36 degrees across portions of north central Kansas and areas
along the Kansas-Nebraska stateline. Frost formation appears most
likely in this area, so have issued a Frost Advisory for tonight
into Friday morning.

Friday will be almost a carbon-copy of today with a stronger
shortwave and weak front sparking some showers or isolated storms. A
second surface high builds in Friday night into Saturday morning
with slightly cooler airmass resulting in a more favorable frost
scenario. A Frost Advisory may be needed, especially north of
Interstate 70. Saturday looks dry, but cool again with highs in the
60s before shortwave mid-level ridging moves overhead for Sunday.
Increased southwesterly winds will boost temperatures into the low
80s Sunday afternoon. Yet another shortwave/surface front combo is
progged to move through Sunday night into Monday which could
generate some light precipitation. Highs Monday may trend cooler
than forecast if the front pushes south and clouds hold through the
day. There is still some uncertainty into the middle of next week in
how the energy diving south out of Canada interacts with the
aforementioned closed low over Baja California as it ejects east.
The majority of guidance (75%) favors the northern stream wave to
dive far enough south to shunt the better moisture and instability
into the southern Plains, limiting the severe thunderstorm potential
across northeast Kansas. The other 25% of guidance has the southern
stream wave a bit farther north with the better shear/instability
environment still in northeast Kansas by Tuesday afternoon. Even
with the cooler and less favorable severe environment scenario, the
passage of the wave will increase chances for rain Tuesday into
Wednesday. The front is likely to be south of the area by
Wednesday with decreasing rain chances through the day and highs
in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Main aviation concern will be the possibility of some shallow fog
development, mainly at KTOP. Outside this, winds will be variable
overnight tonight before increasing out of the northwest around 5-10
mph tomorrow afternoon with a broken deck of mid clouds.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ020-KSZ021.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Griesemer