048
FXUS63 KTOP 140433
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1033 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and a few rumbles of thunder tonight through Saturday,
  highest rainfall totals along and south of I-70.

- Warm, breezy and dry conditions may lead to heightened fire
  concerns Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1201 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

A distinct transition to an active weather pattern is underway
across the Central Plains. A southern stream upper trough,
currently lifting out of the Desert Southwest and will drive a
surface low across the southern Plains tonight. This setup
facilitates strong isentropic ascent and deep moisture transport
into eastern Kansas and will lead to widespread rain tonight.

Precipitation is expected to develop around 10-11pm across
southern Kansas and spread north and east overnight. High-res
guidance and ensembles continue to have a fairly large spread
but there is some general clustering of rainfall totals around
0.25 across northeast Kansas and up to 1.50 inches across
southeast Kansas. While instability is meager (MUCAPE <300
J/kg), it is sufficient to support embedded thunder which may
locally enhance rainfall rates. No severe weather is expected.
Rain should end from west to east later Saturday afternoon.

As the system departs, a brief period of shortwave ridging will
clear skies for Sunday, serving as a pivot point before impacts
shift to fire weather. By Monday and Tuesday, a deepening lee
trough will establish a tight pressure gradient across the
region. Sustained wind around 20 mph and gusts to 45 mph are
favored. Highs in the 70s are favored for Tuesday and Wednesday.
The combination of these unseasonably warm temperatures, deep
mixing, and strong south-southwest winds will rapidly dry out
fuels. Despite the wetting rains tonight and tomorrow, the
dormant vegetation will cure quickly, creating a setup for
elevated to critical fire conditions Tuesday through Thursday of
next week. The pattern looks to cool slightly with a return to
low-end precipitation chances by late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1033 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Bands of SHRA are lifting northward at the current hour with
initial VFR stratus lowering to MVFR and IFR cigs as widespread
SHRA overspreads the terminals. Thunder probs are low with
observed elevated instability remaining south of TOP/FOE. IFR to
LIFR stratus persists through most of the afternoon and
potentially evening as showers exit eastward aft 20Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1201 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

While the immediate focus is on rainfall, partners should be
alerted to a rapidly evolving fire weather threat for Tuesday
through Thursday. The combination of unseasonably warm
temperatures, deep mixing, and strong south-southwest winds will
rapidly dry out fuels. Despite the wetting rains tonight and
tomorrow, the dormant vegetation will cure quickly, creating a
setup for elevated to critical fire conditions Tuesday through
Thursday of next week. Relative humidity falling into the
20-30% range and sustained wind of 20-30 mph with gusts
approaching 45 mph are possible Tuesday and Thursday afternoons.
While wind speeds may be slightly less on Wednesday, humidity
may be the lowest of the week, potentially less than 20%. If
the rain tonight/tomorrow underperforms, fire concerns will only
be magnified.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Prieto
FIRE WEATHER...Jones