013
FXUS63 KTOP 071647
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1047 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Up and down temperatures this week. Cold today, warm for Tuesday,
then cold again late week.

- Low chances for light snow later in the week, but overall a
  dry pattern continues.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Broad troughing remains in place across the CONUS, with a low-
amplitude shortwave over the lower Midwest. Surface
observations show low pressure now over Missouri moving quickly
east. Northerly winds have picked up behind the cold front,
strengthening CAA across the region. Coupled with extensive low
stratus, today will be much colder than the past couple days.
Afternoon highs will struggle to reach freezing in most spots.
Can`t completely rule out an afternoon flurry over north-central
KS with a weak vort-max passing through, but almost all short-
term guidance shows things staying completely dry.

Still looking at a nice warmup for the first couple days of the work
week, as shortwave ridging briefly builds in aloft. Sunshine and a
return of southerly flow will help highs rebound into the 40s for
Monday, while a surge of warm westerly low-level flow will boost
highs into the 50s for Tuesday. For most this will be our first day
in the 50s in two weeks.

The warmth will not last though, as a train of stronger Alberta
Clipper-type systems dropping out of western Canada help to deepen
the eastern CONUS trough. There still remains a good deal of
variability in how the overall pattern evolves, but overall some
things are coming into better agreement. The first system looks to
deliver a shot of cooler air for Wednesday, but the core of the cold
stays far enough northeast that we don`t drop too much below
average. Thursday looks to have a sharp baroclinic zone nearby, so
temperatures could be in the 50s, or potentially in the 30s. By
Friday though, there is better agreement in stronger high pressure
dropping south out of Canada, bringing a much colder airmass to the
area. So increasing confidence in another cold shot with highs
around or below freezing for the end of the week. The overall
pattern remains unfavorable for much in the way of precipitation,
with the predominant clipper track staying to our north. However
still can`t rule out a few opportunities for brief/light
precipitation (mainly in the form of snow) with any weak wave that
takes a more southerly track.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1047 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Forecast soundings maintain an inversion over the stratus suggesting
it could linger well into this evening. When the MVFR CIGS mix out
is the biggest uncertainty and have gone with a compromise between
the NAM and RAP. Otherwise any forcing for precip looks to remain
north. Once the stratus mixes out, VFR conditions should prevail.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Wolters