845
FXUS63 KTOP 241052
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
552 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms generally exit the area
by mid morning then a few showers may linger especially across
eastern areas into midday and early afternoon.

- Heat will be the primary weather concern this weekend into early
next week.  An Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for Saturday
through Tuesday. Expect heat indices to reach around 105-110 degrees.

- Any cool down into the end of next week appears to be limited with
any weak cold front not doing much to change the airmass that will
be in place across the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Current WV satellite imagery along with RAOB data show the
Westerlies in a mostly zonal flow regime across southern Canada.  A
semi-permanent anticyclone continues to remain in place over the
western CONUS into the Desert Southwest. Some flattening on the
northern flank of this dome of high pressure has allowed for a weak
perturbation to transit the northern into central Rockies and has
been steadily working over western portions of the area. This, along
with return flow and a weak LLJ overnight have allowed for a WAA
regime to keep a well developed area of showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms going as they steadily move east. Mid level lapse
rates have fallen below 6 C/km which has coincided with a drop in
overall lightning production through the entire night into early
morning hours. A few areas over central into north central Kansas
experience high rainfall totals earlier last evening into the early
overnight period which resulted in a few flood related warnings and
advisories. From, here it looks like the high rainfall amounts have
been had. Weak isentropic ascent eventually wanes into midday as the
upper wave transitions overhead and east of the area into this
afternoon. Thus expecting clouds to linger even after the showers
come to an end by midday in the early afternoon.

Saturday morning could see some fog form across the area as skies
clear tomorrow night and winds remain calm. Wouldn`t rule out some
areas of patchy dense fog but confidence in coverage is low right
now so have held off mention.

Heat then becomes the primary forecast headline into Saturday
through Tuesday across the area. The western ridge builds once again
and intensifies Sunday and Monday especially with H85 temperatures
rising to around 30C which will help push air temp values to near
triple digits in some areas with ensemble data and NBM percentiles
showing little spread leading to high confidence in heat headlines
being necessary once again. Have opted to go with an Extreme Heat
Watch at this time due to the duration and intensity of the expected
heat.  Will likely need 4 days of heat headlines across the entire
area or at least most of the area heading into Tuesday.
Unfortunately, there appears to be little relief from this heat wave
as the cool down only takes heat index values to the upper 90s which
may feel cool by comparison into next weekend. Any modified cold
front on the easter flank of the semi-permanent western ridge is
likely too weak to matter much to change the overall airmass
characteristics and likely mainly dry as well.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 539 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Early this morning, showers with a a few isolated thunderstorms
continue to work west to east across the area as an upper wave pushes
through. Have maintained mostly marginal VFR levels from here through
later morning into midday but low cigs may persist into the afternoon
period as well with residual moisture lingering behind the upper
wave. General clearing trends should take hold by the end of the day
into the over night period and if sufficient clearing takes place
then possible fog formation may result.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Tuesday evening
for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-
KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-
KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Drake