182
FXUS63 KTOP 292347
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
647 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder continue this
  afternoon and tonight, but coverage maybe widely scattered to
  scattered

- Marginal risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday,
  Saturday night and Sunday afternoon, ahead of a dryline in central
  Kansas.

- Temperatures stay slightly above average for the next week, highs
  in the 80s most days after today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Early this afternoon water vapor satellite imagery along with upper
air analysis showed an amplified upper trough across southern NV and
central AZ. A down stream upper level ridge was located across the
northern high Plains.A southern stream perturbation was located
across eastern KS, extending southeast into the lower MS River
Valley.


The 18Z surface map showed a lee surface trough extending from
southeast MT, southward across the central and southern high Plains.
light southeasterly winds were observed across the CWA with
temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. dew points were in the upper
60 to lower 70s.


Tonight:

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms that develop
during the afternoon hours will continue into the overnight hours,
as the minor mid level perturbations drifts north-northeast across
eastern KS. the vertical shear and instability does not look
sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms.


Saturday through Sunday night:

The H5 trough across NV/AZ will fill as it lifts northeast across
the central Rockies into the central High Plains. The southeast
portion of the H5 trough axis will shift northeast across NM into the
TX PNHDL. A dryline will push east into far western KS Saturday
afternoon. Surface based thunderstorms will develop across west
central KS with MLCAPES increasing to 3000 to 4500 J/KG. The CAM
solutions that go out this far do forecast the potential for
scattered severe thunderstorms developing along the dryline. Any
scattered thunderstorms may be severe but the effective shear will be
under 30 KTS. So, I`m not sure there will any intense supercell
thunderstorms but some of the updrafts could be strong enough for 1
to 2 inch size hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms will
congeal into line segments as they move east into the western
counties of the CWA, with potential severe wind gusts and larger
than quarter size hail. There may be some brief heavy rainfall as PWs
will be around 2 inches. However there remains uncertainty where
these storms will track and it does not look like any training will
occur. These storms will probably weaken as they move east across the
central and eastern counties of the CWA during the late evening
hours. Another area of elevated thunderstorms may develop late
Saturday night into Sunday morning due to warm advection and
isentropic lift on the east side of the higher theta-e axis. MUCAPE
will be over 2000 J/KG and the primary hazard across northeast and
east central KS will be large hail. Highs Saturday will warm into the
lower to mid 80s

Sunday, as the H5 trough trough lifts northeast into NE and the
upper Midwest, a cold front will push southeast across east central
KS where there may be enough surface convergence for isolated
storms. MLCAPES may increase over 2500 J/KG and the effective shear
may increase. However, the southern stream H5 ridge axis will
amplify across the southern Plains, which may provide synoptic scale
subsidence. However, if a few isolated storms develop Sunday
afternoon and evening, a few of them could be severe with large hail
and damaging wind guts. Highs Sunday, even behind the surface
boundary, will warm into the mid to upper 80s.

Sunday night through Friday:

The extended range models are in fair agreement with the H5 ridge
across the southern Plains amplifying across the central Plains on
Monday, then shifting east across the lower and mid MS River Valley.
High temperatures on Monday will warm to around 90 degrees. The
richer gulf moisture will continue to remain in place, and with a
weak cap in place there may be daily chances for afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms. The greater chances May occur
once the H5 ridge axis shifts east of the Plains, Wednesday through
Friday, where minor perturbations may round the H5 ridge axis and
provide more ascent for scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop. Highs Tuesday through Friday will be in the mid to upper
80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

The short-term aviation forecast will be dominated by scattered
showers with a few embedded rumbles of thunder. Showers/storms should
weaken a bit after sunset before another wave of decaying storms
moves in from south-central Kansas. Kept mention of PROB30 at all
sites for showers for a few hours this evening before a large swath
of showers moves in around sunrise Saturday. Some of these showers
may have some isolated thunder in them, but confidence in this was
too low to keep mention of thunder. CAMs keep shower activity for
much of the morning so opted not to take out the mention. Will
continue to monitor short term models and update as confidence
changes.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Griesemer