152
FXUS63 KTOP 031736
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1136 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today brings another cloudy day with light rain at times.

- Thunderstorm chances increase this evening (50-70%) across east
central KS. There is a low chance for an isolated storm to produce
severe hail after midnight.

- Additional chances for severe storms come Thursday night and
Friday night.

- Above average temperatures return by Thursday and continue into
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Shortwave trough is making its way across the central Rockies early
this morning, per 09z water vapor imagery. The associated sfc low is
centered in the CO/NM vicinity just west of the TX/OK panhandles.
Isentropic lift ahead of this system is much stronger and deeper
than at this time yesterday, which led to some light rain
earlier in the night. Radar returns have moved east into MO, but
areas of fog have been left behind in their wake. Based on
observations and webcams, visibility has been above 1 mile for the
most part, and current thinking is that we should keep enough wind
at the surface to prevent fog from becoming too dense. However, if
winds do become lighter, dense fog could become an issue,
particularly in north central KS closer to where advisories have
been issued by neighboring offices. Motorists should be cautious of
quickly dropping visibility over short distances.

As we go through the day, the sfc low should move southeastward
across north TX and west OK. The warm front will move north before
eventually pushing back south as a cold front. Recent trends in the
short-term models have been for this frontal boundary to be further
south. It looks as though it will only barely make it into our CWA
this afternoon, if at all. As such, forecast highs have trended
cooler. Only areas southeast of I-35 look to reach the 50s,
possibly 60 if they`re lucky, with everyone else staying in the 40s.
Additionally, we look to remain socked in with thick stratus all
day, with some batches of light rain moving through on and off with
isentropic lift continuing over the colder sfc air. This will keep
temperatures from warming much this afternoon as well.

Elevated instability increases somewhat this afternoon, more so this
evening and overnight in east central KS. Recent CAM guidance has
thunderstorms developing along the 850mb front in south central to
southeast KS after midnight. It`s questionable how far north this
activity will develop, as most CAMs keep this south of the area. The
HRW-FV3 is the notable exception, which does bring storms across
locations along and south of the Turnpike, whereas others suggest
stratiform rain on the backside of these storms overnight into
Wednesday morning. Looking at severe parameters, east central KS may
have 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE (depending on the model), but effective
shear is only around 25 kts with parcels being rooted between 800-
850mb. It would seem that only an isolated storm with a strong
enough updraft would be able to produce severe hail in this
environment, if storms end up this far north.

CAMs have high pressure pushing into the area following that
activity Wednesday morning into the afternoon, and most
models are in agreement with bringing the upper wave east of the
area by Wednesday night. Some light showers could linger into
Wednesday afternoon, though most places should see some dry time
Wednesday into Thursday afternoon.

The next upper trough digs across the Great Basin and central
Rockies on Thursday. A low-level jet should bring another chance (60-
80%) for showers and thunderstorms Thursday night. There is enough
elevated instability to once again support a hail threat with any
severe storms that can develop. The greater severe threat comes
Friday night, as the aforementioned upper trough ejects out of the
Rockies into the High Plains and pushes a sfc dryline into the area.
The environment will depend on how well we can clear out from the
previous round of storms that morning, but if there is enough
clearing, this setup could be more supportive of supercells with all
severe hazards possible. This is still 4 days out, so plenty of time
for details to come together and this is all subject to change.

Outside of storm chances, look for a warming trend with
temperatures. After today, highs are forecast in the 50s Wednesday,
then 60s Thursday and 70s by Friday. The front behind Friday night`s
system drops us back to the 50s for Saturday, but then we quickly
rebound to the 60s and 70s early next week along with dry
weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

LIFR and IFR conditions are expected to continue at sites
through much of the period. There may be a brief window where
KMHK sees ceilings lift above 1 kft this afternoon, but IFR
CIGs will return later this evening. Precipitation will be
spotty most of the afternoon today, mainly impacting KTOP and
KFOE. Opted to keep out prevailing precipitation groups and go
with PROB30s as rain showers will not last long. A dry lull
should come later this evening before more chances build in
later in the period. Kept out mention for precipitation later
Wednesday morning as better confidence in precipitation
occurring remains south of the terminals.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Griesemer