420
FXUS63 KTOP 220803
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
303 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Thunderstorms approach the area from the north this morning. A few
strong wind gusts could occur as storms move in.

-Periodic shortwaves in the northwest flow bring additional chances
for rain tomorrow and early in the workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

At 07Z, there were two areas of thunderstorms on regional radar, one
in western/central KS and another in north-central Nebraska. The
storms in north-central Nebraska should continue to track southeast
with the mean 850-300mb wind. Based on the current storm movement,
storms could enter far northern Kansas by 11Z. Forecast RAP/HRRR
soundings at that time show around 1000 J/kg of elevated CAPE and
around 40 kts of effective bulk shear. Thus, storms should be able to
maintain strength to move into the area and continue southeast this
morning. A few strong wind gusts of 50-60 mph could occur with the
strongest updrafts. Rain/storms exit the area late this morning,
leaving us with partly cloudy skies and light winds for the
afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday with highs
generally in the mid 80s.

The upper pattern won`t change much this weekend or early next week,
and continues to feature a large ridge centered over New Mexico with
northwest flow over our region. Periodic shortwaves in the northwest
flow will bring chances for rain and storms, with most guidance
showing the next notable wave moving over northeast KS tomorrow
afternoon. Forecast sounding show some mid-level lift associated
with the wave, however, there appears to be a layer of dry air
beneath H7 and fairly weak low and mid level flow. Additionally,
earlier cloud cover looks to limit instability. Have kept POPs
between 20-30 percent. Severe weather is not expected. Scattered
storms could then redevelop Sunday night within an area of
isentropic ascent in eastern KS.

Temperatures warm slightly for Monday and Tuesday, but stay around
climatological normals. The next chance for precipitation will be
Tuesday night and early Wednesday with another mid-level shortwave.
A weak cold front associated with a surface low near the Great Lakes
also looks to move through the area on Wednesday, although
temperatures and the main upper level pattern do not look to change
much through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

For the 06Z TAFs, maintained the PROB30 group with just a minor tweak
to timing based on the latest model guidance. Even still, there
remains uncertainty on where storms will occur this morning. Outside
of storm chances early this period, VFR will prevail with light
easterly winds through the day.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey