098
FXUS63 KTOP 172330
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
Issued by National Weather Service Wichita KS
630 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorm potential through early Wednesday morning
  is trending down but at least some potential continues for
  southern areas along with flooding potential.

- Warmer temperatures late this week - the warmest of the
  season so far.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Showers and thunderstorms continue to percolate mainly outside
the local area, primarily focused on moisture convergence not
far off the surface in central Kansas. Convective debris from
this and other weaker activity to the northwest has kept skies
fairly cloudy with little low-level flow to combine to keep
instability from increasing for the most part. Will need to
watch trends to the west and southwest where better instability
and forcing will be present late this afternoon. Recent model
runs seem to be getting a better handle on trends and have
backed off what many solutions had indicated in depicting
concerning convective signals locally. Southwestern to southern
counties of the local area look to have the greatest risk for
severe storms, and likely a bit earlier based on latest trends.
The upper wave should help usher things east by early Wednesday
morning. Flooding, especially river flooding, may be the bigger
issue with several rivers south of Interstate 70 receiving
inflow from areas where thunderstorms have been persistent
today. Recent radar trends show a slight northward movement of
the central Kansas storms which would bring an areal flood
threat. The current Flood Watch may be a bit farther north than
needed but will let trends play out over the next several hours.

Upper ridging remains on track to build northeast into the
central Plains in the later portions of the week, allowing warm
and humid conditions to push in. Heat indices around 100 look to
be common Friday and Saturday afternoons. Slightly cooler
conditions and minor chances for precipitation chances come
early next week as the ridge axis shifts a bit east.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Latest CAMs show the more robust convection remaining south of the terminals
with mainly some stratoform rain into the evening. Forecast soundings
are consistent with at least MVFR CIGS coming in behind the rain, but
confidence in IFR is low at this time. The low stratus looks to hang around
through the morning before scattering out mid-afternoon with a wind shift
to the northwest.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for KSZ020-KSZ021-
KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ054-
KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...ICT