512
FXUS63 KTOP 020426
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1026 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain continues this
  afternoon into the evening, becoming drizzle and/or freezing
  drizzle overnight. Snow and ice accumulations are expected to
  be minor, but could create hazardous travel into Monday
  morning.

- Warming temperatures through the day Monday will turn any
  precipitation to all liquid by late morning.

- Above-normal temperatures with periodic chances for showers
  and storms through the end of the week. Best chances come
  Tuesday into Wednesday morning (60-80% chance) and again
  Thursday night into Friday (60-70%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

A shortwave is moving through the zonal mid-level flow this
afternoon with lift from the passing wave and increased isentropic
ascent leading to widespread precipitation. With surface
temperatures near freezing and a warm layer aloft, this
precipitation has come as a mess of precipitation types including
freezing rain, sleet, and rain. Steep lapse rates have created some
elevated instability leading to numerous lighting strikes south of
Interstate 70. While instability is rather limited, low freezing
levels and modest shear could support a stronger storm or two this
afternoon with hail being the main hazard, though the likelihood of
any severe storms is very low. The mess of wintry precipitation
types will continue through the remainder of the day, especially
along and north of Interstate 70 where thermo profiles support a mix
of sleet, freezing rain, and maybe even some snow. Areas across east-
central Kansas have warmed above freezing, but could wet-bulb close
to freezing as precipitation falls. Still not expecting much in the
way of accumulations, but the mix of ice and snow could create
hazardous travel. Surface temperatures are above freezing for the
most part, which should help mitigate overall impacts. Bridges and
overpasses will be most vulnerable to any icing.

Deep saturation wanes this evening as a deep stratus deck
overspreads the area. Guidance varies on the strength of isentropic
lift within this stratus deck, but it seems likely precipitation
transitions to drizzle or freezing drizzle, depending on surface
temperatures. Lift looks to wane from west to east during the
overnight hours, but could see some additional impacts from freezing
drizzle into Monday morning. Thankfully, temperatures warm through
the morning with the entire area forecast to be above freezing by
late morning. This will put an end to the risk of any frozen
precipitation. It`ll be a dreary day with cloudy skies and the
potential for drizzle or rain through the day.

The pattern stays active the remainder of the week with a couple of
potent waves ejecting across the Plains. The first comes Tuesday
night into Wednesday, although some initial energy ahead of the
main wave could spark showers or storms during the day Tuesday.
The severe weather parameter space could favor a couple strong
storms Tuesday into Tuesday night ahead of a cold front, but
there remains plenty of uncertainty in how this wave and
associated convection evolves. The first wave departs and the
front pushes through on Wednesday with a period of dry time
expected Wednesday into Thursday before the next wave approaches
the Plains. Guidance varies in regards to the intensity,
timing, and location of this wave, but there is a least a small
chance for some strong to severe storms. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1020 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Ceilings are transitioning to IFR with periods of LIFR possible
overnight. Still anticipate the longest duration of -FZDZ
takes place at the KMHK terminal before improving into early
morning. A 2 or 3 hour window for -FZDZ at the KTOP/KFOE
terminals still looks possible. Although drizzle may end before
sunrise from west to east, look for BR into the morning before
marginal VFR conditions return slowly into the afternoon. IFR
conditions may set up again into tomorrow evening near the end
of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-
KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Drake