162
FXUS63 KTOP 121935
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
235 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms Tuesday evening and overnight will be capable of producing
large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall, particularly along
and south of I-70.

- Another round of potentially heavy rain remains likely (70%)
Wednesday night into Thursday.

- Much cooler and drier for Friday and the weekend. By far
the coldest airmass yet this autumn.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

We remain in a rather amplified pattern this afternoon across the
CONUS. Broad and strong ridging is still in place over much of the
eastern CONUS, centered around the Mississippi River. Farther west,
our main feature to watch is a deep upper low currently centered
over the Great Basin. Surface observations show a weak low over
western Iowa with a trailing cold front stretching back into south-
central Nebraska. Warm southwesterly flow ahead of this front,
coupled with deep mixing, is leading to one more very warm day
across the entire area. More likely than not that both TOP and CNK
will break their daily high (and warm low) temperature records today
as temperatures climb into the low/mid 90s.

Tonight into tomorrow, a lead shortwave moving onto the Plains will
help shunt the cold front a bit farther south into our area. Have
trended this front a bit farther south in line with higher-
resolution guidance, as this seems to be a classic slow bias in
lower resolution guidance with southward moving fronts like this.
Still some uncertainty with where exactly the front will stall out
Tuesday afternoon, but it looks to be somewhere plus/minus 30 miles
from a McPherson to Council Grove to Topeka line. South of the front
it will be one last very warm day with highs again approaching 90.
North of the front it will be notably cooler, with highs in the 70s
to low 80s. With good heating south of the boundary and convergence
along it, confidence is fairly high in thunderstorms developing
during the evening (likely beginning 5-7 PM). A few strong to severe
storms may occur with more elevated convection north of the boundary,
but the best chance for severe thunderstorms will be along and south
of wherever the boundary ends up. Effective shear of 40+ kts and
2000 J/kg of ML CAPE suggests that initial supercells with a
hail/wind risk will be possible. However with a boundary-parallel
shear vector, expecting rather quick upscale growth, transitioning
things more to a wind and heavy rain threat (given near record PWAT
for mid- October). An additional round of showers and storms should
develop overnight into the morning hours, so it`s not out of the
question that a few spots pick up a quick 2-4" of rain. However most
places will see lesser amounts.

The storms tonight will push the front through the majority of the
area. Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday look much cooler behind
the front, particularly if clouds and showers hang around. There are
signs of a brief lull in precipitation Wednesday PM, but rain
coverage looks to increase again late Wednesday night into Thursday.
This will occur as the upper low lifts northeast onto the Central
Plains, becoming weaker and more sheared out as it interacts with a
trough dropping southeast out of Canada. Another few inches of rain
will be possible with this round, particularly across east-central
KS closest to the boundary to our south. So will have to watch for
some minor flooding concerns, particularly if the heaviest rain
Thursday overlaps with the heaviest rain from Tuesday night.

Much drier air will move in Thursday night behind a secondary cold
front, as the now combined upper low and Canadian shortwave move off
to the east. Strong high pressure will arrive in its wake. This will
make for a much more October-like weekend. Morning lows drop into
the 40s, likely even 30s Saturday morning as the high pressure
becomes situated overhead. And even with plenty of sun, high
temperatures should stay in the upper 50s to low 60s Friday and
Saturday before climbing closer to 70 Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Gusty SSW winds will continue this afternoon before
weakening towards sunset. The main challenge will be the timing and
position of a southward moving cold front that will move across the
area overnight and tomorrow morning. Current short term guidance
brings the front south of KMHK and near KTOP/KFOE around or shortly
after midnight before stalling it out around there. Behind the
front, winds should be more out of the northeast at 5-10 kts. May
also see scattered MVFR ceilings behind the front but this is more
uncertain.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Record High Temperature Information:

October 12      Current Record           Forecast
--------------------------------------------------
Topeka         93, set in 1899 and 2024     92
Concordia      93, set in 1899              94

October 13      Current Record           Forecast
--------------------------------------------------
Topeka         91, set in 1975              89
Concordia      90, set in 1975              78


Record Warmest Minimum Temperature Information:
Note, the lowest temperatures for each date will likely occur around
midnight CST.

October 12      Current Record           Forecast
--------------------------------------------------
Topeka         68, set in 1890 and 1899     71
Concordia      67, set in 1975              68

October 13      Current Record           Forecast
--------------------------------------------------
Topeka         69, set in 1962, 68, 75      67
Concordia      70, set in 1920              58

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese
CLIMATE...Poage/Reese