221
FXUS63 KTOP 252319
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
619 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low-medium confidence in a few severe storms impacting portions of north
  central Kansas this evening into the overnight period. Primary
  severe hazard is damaging wind gusts to 70 mph.

- Warmer temperatures in the middle 90s with heat indices near 100
  degrees Sunday and Monday afternoons.

- Precipitation chances return late Sunday - Tuesday amid a slow
  moving cold front within the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

MCS and remnant MCV continue to trek southeast across central Kansas
this afternoon. Increased northwesterly flow aloft and several
embedded perturbations in vicinity of an outflow boundary may
provide convergence for an isolated shower or storm in the late
afternoon. Most CAMs are inconsistent on coverage and location of
isolated convection as overall confidence in development is low.
However with the decaying MCV present, have added slight pops across
eastern KS into the late afternoon. Isolated severe storms could
produce damaging wind gusts and large hail given the marginal deep
layer shear and MUCAPE ~3000 J/KG, if they were to form. Overnight
convection is still in question for north central KS as the some of
the 12Z suite in guidance is trending further west/south with the
MCS. Environment ahead of the cold front is supportive of severe
storms as MUCAPE is around 3000 J/KG, if the MCS begins to develop
in northern KS. Maintained low chance pops for now given the cold
front moving through.

Added a very low chance for showers and storms cannot be ruled out
along the frontal boundary on Wednesday, especially south of I-35 in
the afternoon. Drier, sfc high pressure settling southward should
result in a pleasant, less humid Wednesday evening with dewpoints
near 60 and temps in the low 70s. High pressure sticks around
Thursday before shifting eastward as mid level heights increase,
leading to southerly winds and warmer temperatures this weekend.
Heat indices peak in the low 100s Sunday and Monday as south winds
pickup from 15 to 20 mph sustained. The upper ridge flattens on
Sunday as a northern stream shortwave trough pushes a cold front
through the central plains. Ensembles exhibit a wide variance on
timing and location of the front and subsequent convection through
Tuesday. Broad low chances seem reasonable as the front meanders in
the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

No significant changes from the current forecast. A period of mid-
clouds move back over the region as storm complex moves north to
south over western Kansas. No widespread fog impacts anticipated but
wouldn`t rule out some minor obscuration into the early morning with
the BL moisture and calm winds. Due to the cloud cover, radiational
cooling impacts look to be offset so actual fog should be kept in
check.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Drake