592
FXUS63 KTOP 241108
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
608 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-A band of scattered showers and storms is possible for a few hours
 this morning.

-A few severe storms could then develop Tuesday afternoon and
 evening.

-Temperatures remain fairly consistent throughout the week with
 warmer weather returning this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

The synoptic pattern remains largely unchanged this morning, with
the mid-level ridge remaining centered over New Mexico. Water vapor
imagery shows a shortwave over southwestern KS which is generating
cloud cover and light rain. There is also a band of showers and
storms in south-central KS and north-central OK that has developed
just ahead of a surface low in and area of isentropic ascent. Most
CAMs show that band of precipitation expanding northward into the
area toward sunrise as isentropic ascent increases northeast. There
will be around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE, but fairly weak shear as the LLJ
looks to stay south of the area. So while thunderstorms are
possible, severe weather is not expected this morning. Rain and
storms should quickly dissipate as the ascent decreases mid-morning.
Temperatures then warm well into the 80s for much of the area this
afternoon with heat index values a few degrees higher.

The next chance for thunderstorms will be Tuesday afternoon and
evening with models showing another shortwave moving over the area
within the northwest flow aloft. The environment should be more
favorable for a few severe storms with around 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE
and limited CIN. Shear again isn`t overly impressive so damaging
wind gusts appear to be the main concern, especially with DCAPE
around 1000 J/kg.

A weak surface boundary then moves through northeast KS on Wednesday
and high pressure expands southward behind it. The mid-level ridge
looks to move slightly westward, keeping the track of shortwaves west
of the area. Thus, dry weather is expected through the end of the
week. Temperatures remain fairly consistent each day with lows in the
60s and highs in the mid to upper 80s through the workweek before
temperatures warm further this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Scattered thunderstorms have developed very early this morning and
could impact airports through about 14Z before dissipating. Once TS
is out of the area, VFR will prevail with clouds clearing and winds
around 10 kts out of the southeast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey