282
FXUS63 KTOP 021041
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
441 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance of freezing drizzle or drizzle (10-20%) remains this
morning, though most places probably stay dry.

- Temperatures return to above normal mid to late week.

- Periodic showers and thunderstorms with greatest chances
  Tuesday into Wednesday and again Thursday night into Friday
  (50-80% for both).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 441 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Nearly zonal flow aloft continues with a closed low over the PNW
vicinity. At the surface, we continue to see northeast to east winds
on the southwestern periphery of a high pressure cell centered in
the Great Lakes. Temperatures have been hovering at or just below
freezing in north central and northeast KS, whereas east central KS
has been between 34-36 degrees through the night. There hasn`t been
much evidence of widespread drizzle or freezing drizzle for much of
the overnight hours, though it has been rather difficult to
ascertain how much precipitation is actually out there. Based on
observations and cameras, it appears as though most places have been
staying dry with isolated and patchy areas of drizzle or freezing
drizzle. Forcing for ascent also looks weak with models still
showing mixed signals for how this will evolve through the morning
and afternoon. Vertical profiles indicate some lift picking up
around sunrise and there appears to be a subtle boundary near the
KS/NE border, which could perhaps develop some drizzle where
temperatures are still near freezing. While it seems more likely
that most places remain dry, in collaborating with neighboring
offices, decided it would be best to let the advisory ride with this
scenario being a fine line between staying dry or a potentially
hazardous situation if freezing drizzle were to become more
widespread around sunrise.

Temperatures should warm above freezing for all areas by late
morning, and regardless of any drizzle, cloud cover sticking around
will make for a dreary day. This may also make it difficult to warm
up very well. Have forecast highs in the 40s, but would not be
surprised if some areas struggle to reach the 40s, particularly
further north. Isentropic surfaces show a better signal for vertical
lift increasing from south to north this evening and overnight, so
some scattered rain chances return at that time frame ahead of the
next wave.

By Tuesday, the Pacific upper low is progged to move across the
Rockies as an open wave with an associated sfc low moving across the
TX/OK panhandles. This will bring a cold front across the area into
the afternoon. There are small differences in where this front may
set up, which will have an influence on thunderstorm chances, but
consensus currently has the boundary just south of the I-70
corridor. A strong temperature gradient exists with this front,
leading to forecast highs in the 40s and 50s north, and 60s to low
70s south of it. For areas south of the front, we`ll need to watch
for the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday as
elevated instability and bulk shear would be enough to support a
hail threat with any stronger updrafts. The front should push south
of the CWA by evening, but guidance is in pretty good agreement with
keeping post-frontal activity around overnight into Wednesday
morning.

Models differ on how progressive this first wave is, though there
should be some dry time Wednesday into Thursday as it moves east of
the area. The next amplified trough looks to dig across the western
US late this week, increasing chances for showers and storms again
Thursday night into Friday. Evolution of this trough varies heading
into the weekend, leading to lower confidence in rain chances
towards the end of this forecast period. Still, the 25th percentile
of the NBM has high temperatures near or above average Wednesday
onward, leading to high confidence in warm temperatures returning
for most of the coming week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1020 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Ceilings are transitioning to IFR with periods of LIFR possible
overnight. Still anticipate the longest duration of -FZDZ
takes place at the KMHK terminal before improving into early
morning. A 2 or 3 hour window for -FZDZ at the KTOP/KFOE
terminals still looks possible. Although drizzle may end before
sunrise from west to east, look for BR into the morning before
marginal VFR conditions return slowly into the afternoon. IFR
conditions may set up again into tomorrow evening near the end
of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-
KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Drake