209
FXUS63 KTOP 311128
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
628 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Rain showers impact the area this morning and again later this
 afternoon/evening.

-A stronger system brings windy conditions and a chance for severe
 thunderstorms on Monday.

-Uncertainty increases on rain chances and temperatures into the
 middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

A shortwave trough axis is moving over the area early today. Water
vapor imagery at 08Z shows an area of high atmospheric moisture
ahead of the trough axis over eastern KS, and another over the TX
panhandle. Scattered rain showers from overnight could become more
numerous for the early morning hours today, before possibly tapering
off slightly midday. Chances increase again during the afternoon and
evening as that next batch of moisture moves in. Southerly flow is
keeping temperatures mild this morning in the low 60s. Warming will
be limited by cloud cover and rain today, so highs will likely top
out in the upper 60s.

Ridging aloft will allow for drier weather Sunday and we may see a
bit more sunshine. Highs are expected to reach the low 70s. A storm
system off the PNW coast currently will progress eastward over the
Great Basin as a deep amplified trough tomorrow, inducing lee
cyclogenesis in the Front Range. The surface low will eject out over
the High Plains early Monday in response to a lead shortwave. Strong
dynamics with the system will allow for a 50 to 60 kt LLJ Monday
morning and a tight pressure gradient. Southerly winds will increase
to near advisory criteria ahead of the main system. A more unstable
air mass will then advect into the area as low level moisture
increases, but instability looks to remain fairly limited in general.
Showers and storms could develop by midday with a more robust area
of storms developing along a cold front during the late afternoon or
evening. Instability should be sufficient combined with strong shear
parameters to increase the risk for severe storms. Damaging wind and
perhaps a brief tornado risk will exist Monday afternoon and evening.

Models then differ on the evolution of the H5 and surface low. One
solution is for a more progressive low with the cold front moving
into Missouri on Tuesday, while the other possibility is for the H5
low to become cutoff over KS, keeping the surface low over the area.
At this time, NBM keeps POP elevated through the day on Tuesday,
which would be more likely if the system becomes cutoff over the
area. Uncertainty also exists in temperatures through midweek and
will depend on how the system evolves. The trend should eventually be
for cooler conditions once high pressure is able to move into the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Rain showers are ongoing early this morning, but should begin to
scatter more into the later morning hours. Have included a PROB30
group for additional showers late this afternoon and this evening.
Conditions outside of rain should primarily be VFR, but may see some
periods of MVFR ceilings tonight after rain ends.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey