745
FXUS63 KTOP 041930
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
230 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few stronger storms possible across north-central KS Sunday
evening along a slow moving cold front.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances spread eastward Sunday night into
Tuesday morning as the front sags southeast.

- More seasonable temperatures arrive behind the cold front and
  last through the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a deep trough over the
western CONUS, with strong ridging over the East. The approaching
trough is leading to lee cyclogenesis over the High Plains, as low
pressure deepens over northeast Colorado. The strengthening pressure
gradient across the state is leading to windy conditions today,
south winds gusting to 30-40 mph at times. Temperatures stay warm,
again climbing into the upper 80s by mid-afternoon, and only falling
into the 60s overnight as breezy conditions persist.

Tomorrow, a cold front will steadily press southeast towards our
area as the surface low (and associated mid-level shortwave) lifts
off to the northeast over the Northern Plains. Despite neutral to
even rising 500 mb heights, short term guidance is consistent on
frontal convergence and isentropic ascent being enough to develop
thunderstorms along the front in far north-central KS. Instability
(750 J/kg ML CAPE) and mid-level lapse rates (6.5 C/km) are rather
unimpressive, but with 30-40 kts of effective shear can`t rule out a
few stronger storms. The best window to see some small hail or 50-60
mph wind gusts would be 6-10 pm, before the boundary layer becomes
increasingly stable after sunset. Could also see some local rainfall
amounts of 1-3" across this north-central KS area, as boundary
parallel shear vectors may support some training convection.

While Sunday evening and night across north-central Kansas will be
the best chance for appreciable rainfall, we`ll likely see a few
scattered storms continue Monday into Tuesday morning as the front
slowly pushes southeast. Expecting generally lower rainfall amounts
with southeast extent into east-central Kansas. May still see some
80s across east-central KS Monday, but by Tuesday everywhere should
be notably cooler behind the front. Cloud cover may keep some
northern areas in the 60s all day.

Spread in temperatures and precipitation chances greatly increases
for later in the week and into next weekend. This uncertainty is
largely tied to the evolution of an upper low over the West Coast
Thursday into Friday. How much this low becomes cut off from the
main jet stream will play a role in the downstream pattern, and
whether the upper flow over our area stays more northwesterly or
southwesterly. For now though, it appears we`ll see a slight warming
trend into the latter portions of the week as well as a few low-end
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Breezy south winds will continue throughout the period,
though slightly weaker and less gusty overnight. If winds weaken
even more than expected, could see some marginal LLWS overnight, but
for now think boundary layer will stay mixed enough to preclude
mention. Gusts during the day will reach 25-30 kts. Skies
remain mostly clear with just a few high clouds.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese