Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 042333
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
633 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022

Forecast Key Points:

- Hot

- Humid

- Heat Advisory Area-Wide through 9 PM Tuesday

- Nighttime/Morning Storms Possible Wednesday through Friday

Happy Independence Day! As of 230 PM on this 4th of July, a midlevel
ridge axis remains positioned across the southeastern half of the
US. A weak MCV was slowly progressing northward across western OK.
Latest satellite imagery reveals an expanding cumulus field across
southern KS. A few storms are possible across this area given their
closer proximity to the MCV. All-in-all, anticipate dry conditions
for celebrations this evening. Hot and humid conditions will
accompany any outdoor activity today. Heat index values above 100
degrees will continue through 7-8 PM. Otherwise, a mild night is
expected with lows only reaching the upper 70s to near 80. A stray
shower or sprinkle is possible Tuesday morning as the LLJ veers but
confidence is much too low to introduce rain chances.

A repeat of today is expected Tuesday with hot and humid conditions
yielding heat index values up to 110 once again. The heat advisory
will expire for the far north central KS counties at 9 PM Tuesday
evening, with the remaining area continuing through 9 PM Wednesday.
There is the potential for the heat advisory to be upgraded to a
heat warning later this week. The main uncertainty is tied to the
potential for convection. Weak perturbation are forecast to traverse
northern KS and adjacent portions of NE Wednesday morning, Thursday
morning, and possibly Friday, which may contribute to scattered to
widespread thunderstorm activity. Due to the threat for residual
cloud cover, have opted to maintain the previous heat advisory.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022

No significant changes to the going forecast. Did bring the LLWS
layer slightly lower to FL015 but still looks like marginal
conditions set up overnight with a 35-40kt LLJ overhead and
surface winds partially decoupled with near surface winds
generally between 5-10kts from the south overnight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ011-012-021>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ008>010-020.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Baerg
AVIATION...Drake


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