198
FXUS63 KTOP 052314
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
614 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch has been issued for parts of northeast KS this evening
and overnight. Uncertainty exists in how much rainfall will come
this far south, but the watch area already has well saturated ground
from last night`s rainfall.

- Additional storms are expected late Saturday night through Sunday.
Locally heavy rainfall and flooding are again the main concerns.

- A hot and humid pattern takes shape next week, with forecast heat
  indices around 105 degrees for a few days in the middle of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Water vapor imagery early this afternoon shows the area within quasi-
zonal flow aloft with a closed low upstream coming out of Mexico and
into west Texas. Sfc obs show an area of low pressure in the High
Plains of CO with a washed out boundary from the inverted trough
extending across southeastern NE. Visible satellite imagery has a
better depiction of the boundary, which looks to be placed in a west-
east oriented line between Lincoln and Beatrice. There isn`t much
upper forcing to trigger convection, but enough sfc convergence
looks to develop storms along the boundary in southeastern NE this
evening. Much of the 12z CAM guidance keeps this activity north of
the state line through tonight and the HRRR has been consistent in
that trend as well. However, a couple of the solutions have storms
grazing our area for a short time period. This would be within the
realm of possibility if the storms to our north can develop enough
of a cold pool to generate some additional storms downstream. It
should be noted that moisture pooling along the boundary should
result in an axis of plentiful instability (4000-5000 J/kg of CAPE)
with marginal shear (25-30 kts). This could support a few severe
storms if they can make it far enough south.

The bigger concern, however, is the heavy rainfall and flooding
threat. Pwat values still look to be around 1.5" in far northeast KS
this evening with HREF showing 90th percentile QPF amounts as high
as another 1-2" in the same areas that received 5-9" of rain last
night into early this morning. Even the 75th percentile shows 0.5 to
1" of rain in this area, which could still be enough to exacerbate
ongoing flooding issues. Brown County in particular has very low
flash flood guidance. So despite confidence in occurrence of storms
being lower than normal for issuing a flood watch, decided that this
high-end potential combined with antecedent conditions was enough to
be prudent and issue the watch.

Most of the daytime hours Saturday look dry, although a few of the
CAMs are showing isolated convection in our area during the
afternoon, to the north of the system lifting out of TX.
Unfortunately those isolated cells could once again impact areas
that are already saturated. Still, the better rain chances come as
the system to our south lifts north across the area late Saturday
night and especially through Sunday. Highest confidence in
widespread rain looks to be across eastern KS, where Pwat approaches
record values.

That trough axis pushes east Monday morning and should end this
round of rainfall. Some models are hinting at another subtle
shortwave rounding the northern periphery of the ridge Monday
afternoon/evening, which could result in another round of rainfall,
but there are some differences in where that perturbation ends up,
leading to less confidence in our area being affected by heavy
rainfall. From there, upper ridging takes hold into the middle of
next week, leading to hot and humid conditions. Heat headlines may
be needed as head index values are forecast to be around 105 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected. Thunderstorm activity remains highly
likely to remain north of the terminals. Can`t completely rule out
MVFR cigs around 11Z but this appears unlikely. Minor gusts remain
possible a times in south winds.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-
KSZ024.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Poage