997
FXUS63 KTOP 131114
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
614 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The dangerous heat continues through at least Friday, potentially spreading
  into Saturday with max heat indices from 105 to 112 each
  afternoon.

- Confidence is moderate in a few severe storms impacting portions
  of central and north central Kansas late this afternoon and
  evening. Additional storms are possible Friday and Saturday
  evenings. The primary hazard is damaging wind gusts with the
  strongest storms.

- Relief from the heat arrives to the region Sunday onward as highs
  cool back to seasonable values in the upper 80s/low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Another overnight MCS is ongoing across Nebraska early this morning,
amid weak zonal flow aloft along the northern periphery of the upper
ridge. The trailing outflow boundary from the MCS may briefly shift
winds mid morning and increase mid level clouds north of I-70, but
otherwise the residual MCS stays north and east of the area. Sfc
dewpoints starting out in the low/mid 70s with lows only dropping to
the upper 70s should spell another dangerously hot afternoon. The
Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect as apparent temps reach 110
in the afternoon. Near the highway 36 corridor, apparent temps are
forecast to reach near 105 and with no obvious deterring factor in
lower temps/dewpoints, decided to issue a Heat Advisory for the far
northern Kansas counties this afternoon.

The west-east stationary boundary near the I-70 corridor becomes the
focus for isolated severe storm development as a sfc low develops
this afternoon. Low level convergence along the sfc trough will
likely be overcome as forecast soundings mix the boundary layer to
600 mb. The last several CAMs build upon this confidence in
development compared to the less organized setups seen the last
several days. Given the decent DCAPE present and vertical wind
shear, a few storms may be severe, producing damaging wind gusts and
marginally severe hail. If these storms form, they may persist
eastward into the evening, aided by the enhanced LLJ.

Periodic storm chances continue Friday and Saturday evenings as the
frontal boundary lingers across the region. The southwest to
northeast orientation of the jet and subsequent MCSs that form over
the high plains suggest any residual storms would most likely impact
north central Kansas. Highest chances occur late Saturday evening as
a stronger embedded trough shifts a cold front southward.
Widespread heat relief arrives behind the front on Sunday, dropping
temps into the 80s through early next week. Shortwave perturbations
embedded in the zonal flow aloft will support low-end precip chances
next week, though organized severe weather probabilities are low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 610 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

VFR at terminals as southerly winds increase shortly after sunrise
from 10 to 15 kts sustained, gusting over 20 kts in the afternoon.
Medium confidence in TSRA developing west of KMHK by 22Z, potentially
impacting KMHK aft 00Z. Additional showers and TSRA may also impact KMHK
by 04Z so have begun adding the mention with a Prob30 group aft 00Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Highest Minimum Temperature Records

August 13
              Record (Year)    Forecast
Topeka          81 (1913)         78
Concordia       80 (1943)         78

August 14
              Record (Year)    Forecast
Topeka          85 (1936)         78
Concordia       83 (1936)         74

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012.
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-
KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-
KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto
CLIMATE...Poage/Prieto