149
FXUS63 KTOP 040525
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1225 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool temperatures with a few rain chances into early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Surface observations show the cold front is beginning to move south
from Nebraska into far northeast Kansas. Ahead of the front,
sunshine and weak WAA is helping temperatures rise into the low/mid
80s - our warmest day in over 10 days. With dewpoints in the low/mid
60s and mid-level cooling beginning to occur, CIN is weakening just
ahead of the boundary. So expect scattered thunderstorms to begin to
develop within the 4-6 PM window as the front nears the I-70
corridor. Moisture convergence isn`t all that impressive, so some
uncertainty with how fast storms can become organized. But with 40-
45 kts of effective shear and 1500-2000 J/kg of ML CAPE, do expect a
few storms to eventually become severe. The hail threat will likely
be greatest with any initial supercells, with a wind threat
increasing as storms become more numerous and cold pools merge.
Can`t rule out some significant hail larger than golf ball size,
particularly towards central KS where mid-level lapse rates and
effective shear are slightly better. The severe threat should
quickly move south of the area by around 9-10 PM, with cooler and
drier air steadily moving in.

Tomorrow morning will be nice and cool as surface high pressure very
briefly becomes centered over the area. Light winds and clear skies
may also result in some fog as temperatures drop to near 50 degrees.
A fast moving upper wave then moves southeast into the main Great
Lakes upper low, pushing a secondary cold front through our area
Thursday night. While moisture quality won`t be quite as much behind
the first front, still may see a few weaker thunderstorms late
Thursday night. Good signal for lighter showers to persist into the
day on Friday, with cloud cover likely keeping temperatures in the
60s. High pressure moves back in by Saturday morning, allowing
temperatures to fall into the upper 40s across much of the area.
Cool temperatures continue through the weekend and into early week
as northwest flow and surface ridging persist. The weekend looks
mostly dry, followed by some minor rain chances early next week with
a pair of weak upper waves.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

North winds should subside with mid-level clouds gradually
clearing overnight as sfc high pressure moves in. This may
provide a short window of time for patchy shallow ground fog
around sunrise, particularly at KTOP, although the drier air
filtering in may keep it from being as persistent or as
widespread as yesterday morning. Will continue to monitor for
this possible development, otherwise winds veer back to the
south mid morning and remain there until a secondary front
approaches towards the tail end of this period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Picha