177
FXUS63 KTOP 111121 AAA
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Topeka KS
521 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer today and above average temperatures into the weekend.

- Next chance for rain appears later this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Early morning sfc map showed low pressure across MN with a weak
cold front draped southwest into western KS. Strong pressure
gradient and LLJ has lead to gusty southwest winds ahead of the
boundary in spots this morning. On satellite, a shortwave was
noted across ND/MN in WNW mid level flow with widespread cirrus
noted across the region.

Expect gusty southwest winds this morning to weaken by midday as
the weak cold front sags into the area. Extensive high clouds
should also decrease by afternoon which should help temps rise
into the upper 50s to around 60 over the east to the middle 60s
west.

The 500mb flow pattern will continue to feature a ridge across
the Rockies with WNW flow across the Plains into Thursday. The
ridge axis will shift across the region on Friday when highs
should push into the 70s. A cold front may pass through dry on
Saturday as northern stream energy races east and leaves a
closed low behind over the Southwest. This low is forecast to
eventually move across the region Sunday/Monday with increasing
chcs for rain then.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 517 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

LLWS will be present at the TAF sites through 14Z before the LLJ
begins to subside and mixing increases. Wind gusts should also
subside by midday as the pressure gradient weakens as a weak
front approaches. VFR conds should prevail through the period
with light winds after 00z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Omitt
AVIATION...Omitt