967
FXUS63 KTOP 012021
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
221 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow ending by early evening.

- Variable though still below normal temperatures dominate the
coming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Bands of snowfall ahead of a mid-level wave continue to pass over
eastern areas early this afternoon. Precipitation amounts have been
on the higher side of most guidance though snow to liquid ratios
seem to be lower, keeping amounts generally in the 1-4 inch
range. Trough axis will be nearly east of the area by 0Z so 6
PM end of the Advisory remains in order, with western areas
already seeing some sun.

Northwest flow aloft persists over the next several days. Southwest
flow around 5000 feet brings warmer air in tonight into Tuesday with
anticipated large temperature spreads in high temperatures
considering the varying snow field it will flow over. Have bumped up
values a bit given the WAA and decent insolation. The next upper
wave looks to split to the southwest and east for little opportunity
for anything more than trace precip late Tuesday night into early
Wednesday though 850 mb temps fall back to around -8 C for a cold
Wednesday night and Thursday. Air temps may approach 0 F near
the Nebraska border with the 1035 mb surface high moving into
northeast Kansas near dawn Thursday, though light winds keep
apparent temps close to these air temps. Temperatures moderate
somewhat Friday into Saturday though another somewhat weaker
front comes in during the Saturday/Saturday night time frame
though with little upper support to keep the forecast dry. The
upper pattern looks to shift a bit west early next week bringing
potential for warmer conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A few bands of somewhat heavier snow remain upstream but LIFR
conditions look unlikely with this remaining snow as the system
moves out over the next several hours. Confidence in when the
return to VFR will occur is not high but should be back by 06Z
at all sites. Can`t rule out some visibility restrictions around
12Z in light winds and clear skies though winds not far off the
surface should be 10+ knots.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-
KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage