042
FXUS63 KTOP 121923
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
223 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms are possible (10-20%) over east central
  KS this evening. There is a marginal risk for severe weather.

- There is a 15-30% chance of showers and storms Thursday morning and
  again Thursday evening.

- Hot and humid weather is forecast Friday through Sunday giving a
  taste of summer before a cold front moves through Monday. Scattered
  showers and storms will be possible Saturday through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

19Z water vapor imagery showed a shortwave moving through the Upper
Midwest into the Great Lakes with upper ridging over the western US.
A closed upper low was off the coast of the Pacific Northwest.
Surface obs placed low pressure across northern WI with a trailing
frontal boundary stretching through IA and into north central KS.

The frontal boundary is forecast to continue sliding south late this
afternoon and into the evening with CAMs showing some isolated
convection forming over Coffey, Anderson and Franklin counties
around 00Z. Instability is progged to be limited to around 1000 J/kg
in the vicinity of the boundary with effective bulk shear remaining
relatively weak. So chances for severe weather appear to be low, but
not zero either. The boundary layer begins to stabilize shortly
after sunset and the chances for precip diminish towards 03Z. For
the rest of the night and through Wednesday, surface ridging and dry
air are likely to bring cool temps in the morning. Sunny skies on
Wednesday are forecast to help highs warm to around 80 degrees.

There is a signal from the models for good moisture and theta-e
advection on the nose of the low level jet Wednesday night and
Thursday morning. Curiously the GFS which has been developing some
QPF also has some mid level capping above the lift of the low level
jet. Nevertheless the 12Z NAM also has a similar signal with deep
isentropic upglide and is developing some QPF. Steepening mid level
lapse rates are forecast from the models and based on forecast
soundings, effective shear looks to also be strengthening. This may
allow from some elevated severe storms during the early morning
hours of Thursday. The NBM came in dry due to the lack of QPF from
many of the models. But think there is a strong enough signal that
at least a slight chance POP is needed. Later on Thursday a
shortwave is progged to move over the forecast area bringing another
chance for showers and storms. Forecast soundings show a little bit
more inhibition by Thursday evening in the form of an elevated mixed
layer. So there is some question as to coverage of showers and
whether they would be tapped into the boundary layer moisture and
instability.

There is a good consensus among the operational and ensemble
solutions through Saturday with increasing spread in solutions for
the last few days of the forecast. The overall pattern is expected
to have an upper trough develop over the Great Basin this weekend
with prolonged southerly low level flow helping temps to warm up and
bring gulf moisture into the region. A weak boundary in the area may
act as a focus for precip through the weekend and with the dewpoints
forecast to be in the upper 50s to near 70, it is hard to rule out
chances for showers and storms. So have stuck with the NBM and
chance POPs through the weekend. Better chances for precip may be on
Monday as 12Z operational solutions want to bring a better defined
cold front through the state as shortwave energy lifts through the
central and northern plains. Temperatures are forecast to be well
above normal, especially from Friday through Sunday with highs
expected to be in the lower and middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions should persist thanks to dry air ahead of a weak
FROPA expected around 00Z. CAMs hold off on any convective
initiation until the boundary is south of the terminals, so will keep
a dry forecast going.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Record High Temperature for May 15

                 Record (Year)           Forecast
Topeka           95 (1944)               93
Concordia        91 (1944, 2012)         92


Record Highest Minimum Temperature for May 15

                 Record (Year)           Forecast
Topeka           71 (1977)               66
Concordia        69 (1962)               62


Record High Temperature for May 16

                 Record (Year)           Forecast
Topeka           95 (1931)               91
Concordia        93 (2019)               91

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Wolters
CLIMATE...Wolters