538
FXUS63 KTOP 232340
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
640 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few storms arrive mainly towards central KS
Thursday, then spread east for Friday and Saturday.

- Dry weather is expected Sunday and most of Monday before the next
chance of rain Monday night into Tuesday.

- High temperatures hold in the 70s to low 80s for the next several
days, although clouds and rain may impact this to some degree.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Upper trough axis from Baja California up into the Four Corners
region is bringing moisture through NM, west TX, and much of CO this
afternoon, with an upper ridge covering the Deep South. Another area
of moisture is noted on water vapor imagery streaming into the
Pacific Northwest, which is associated with a low just off the Gulf
of Alaska. Sfc low pressure has deepened in the lee of the Rockies
in response to the western CONUS trough, while so far today we
remain under the influence of high pressure just to our east. The
drier air and southeasterly winds have helped to scatter out this
morning`s cloud cover, leaving us with pleasant early fall
conditions with temperatures in the 70s. The deeper moisture still
resides out in western KS where some showers have begun to move
through ahead of the main system. CAMs largely show the showers
currently around Hays and Russell dissipating before they would make
it into our CWA, and forecast soundings support this idea as well.
Mid-level moisture looks to increase overnight, but soundings around
CNK don`t really show the low levels saturating until closer to
sunrise. The upper perturbation rounding the ridge should help to
increase lift along with the moisture in the western half of the CWA
Thursday, leading to showers and a few storms focused in that part
of the area most of the day with a lower chance of rain making it
further east. Moisture looks shallower east until later in the
afternoon into the evening, so if any isolated activity does make it
into eastern KS, it likely wouldn`t be until then. Additional
embedded shortwaves look to push the upper ridge further south of
the area Friday into Saturday and increase DCVA across the area,
leading to greater chances for rain those two days. It is not
expected to be a widespread continuous rain all day; therefore it
does not look like a washout. Elevated instability looks low
throughout the next few days as well, so while some rumbles of
thunder are within the realm of possibility, severe weather looks
unlikely. NBM probs of exceeding 1 inch of rain in 48 hours are in
the 60-80% range roughly northwest of an Abilene to Holton line,
with 30-50% probs south of that line. Given that rain totals are
spread over a longer period of time, am not anticipating flooding
being an issue.

The last shortwave looks to take a little longer to depart Saturday
compared to previous forecasts, probably in part due to a
strengthening low off the Atlantic coast slowing down our weather
pattern. As such, some rain may hang on in eastern KS into Saturday
evening before dry conditions take hold for Sunday. While there is
some WAA with low-amplitude ridging to start out next week, the
trend is for a bit less of a warm-up with highs in the mid 70s north
to low 80s south. This only looks slightly warmer than it would be
later this week with clouds and rain in play. Meanwhile, an
amplified trough looks to make its way across the western CONUS
early next week and bring another cold front across the area on
Tuesday, leading to our next best chance of rain Monday night
through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Expect VFR conditions for much of the period with possible showers
building into western areas around KMHK by late afternoon and
possibly and isolated storm or two. Have not gone with mention at
this time due to dry air overall in the column which may delay any
onset until the evening hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Drake