163
FXUS63 KTOP 222315
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
515 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog may redevelop in the overnight hours toward Sunday morning

- Mild and dry Sunday, rain returns Monday and Monday night

- Cooler air moves in Tuesday through Thursday, with the next
  chance for precipitation late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Morning stratus and fog have slowly shifted southward
today, thanks in part to a weak shortwave trof in the upper
flow that has moved into eastern Missouri. The large upper low
that brought significant moisture to the west coast has slid
southeastward over Baja California at it slowly advances east.

Recent rains on Friday, coupled with sunshine and light winds
today, should leave enough moisture in the boundary layer
overnight for additional chances for fog development -
particularly in low lying areas and near bodies of water.
Chances for visibilities of less than a half mile are more
prevalent near the Kansas river valley, and will carry areas of
fog there with patchy elsewhere. A little more mixing and drier
air may forego fog as you go northward toward the Nebraska
border.

The upper ridge on the east side of the low moves over the
state on Sunday, and, once any morning fog burns off, should
bring another day of above normal high temperatures and light
winds.

The track of the west coast low lifts it across Kansas and
weakens as it does so, but not before bringing an area of rain
into the forecast area Sunday night into Monday, with some light
wrap around rain chances continuing Monday night. CAPE is
negligible for most of the time, although could be enough for a
rumble of thunder or two on Monday afternoon. Chances for a
quarter inch of rain or less across eastern Kansas are about 40%
with very few higher outliers.

The cold front behind the low moves in for Tuesday, reinforced
by an upper trof near the Canadian border advecting more cooler
air southward. Highs are still in the 40s, which is below our
normal high around 50, but not significantly so.

Winds on the back side of the surface high swing back around
from the south on Friday and would suggest warmer temperatures,
followed by increasing uncertainty on the track of the next
system for next weekend. Currently have rain chances on
Saturday, but the upper trof is large and dynamic, with track
likely to shift before then. Worth noting that this pattern
would bring a cold shift toward the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 508 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR to start the forecast period with main concern being fog
developing at all terminals tonight. Main question is the
timing for development with the latest RAP/HRRR hinting at KMHK
visibilities dropping to MVFR closer to 07Z compared to
KTOP/KFOE aft 08Z. Confidence is increasing for visibilities to
fall below 1/2 mile in the 09-11Z time frame, and with very
light winds within the first 500 feet, IFR to LIFR visibilities
may persist through 16Z before southerly winds increase and
sustain below 10 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Craven
AVIATION...Prieto