577
FXUS63 KTOP 131045
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
545 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-average temperatures through mid week before temperatures warm
  towards the upper 90s closer to the weekend.

- Minimal chances for rain over the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

A large dome of high pressure has settled across the central and
northern Plains over the past 24 hours and will heavily influence
our weather over the coming week. For today through Wednesday,
easterly surface flow should help to mitigate temperatures getting
much above 90 degrees. Additionally, Tds should be able to mix out
into the mid to upper 60s each afternoon keeping conditions fairly
pleasant for this time of year. This pattern changes a bit Wednesday
evening into Thursday as a weak upper low retrogrades back west
towards the central and southern Plains. This will return southerly
flow across the area and prompt slow warming each day into the
weekend. Expect temperatures Thursday and into the weekend to
approach the mid to upper 90s - possibly some triple digits by the
weekend. There could be some low-end chances for precipitation
across far south and east portions of the area while this upper low
meanders across Oklahoma, but best chances should stay south of the
area. These chances seem best Wednesday evening and again Thursday
evening. Long-range guidance is depicting the upper ridge to break
down sometime next week as it pushes back west towards the western
US. This should usher in some chances for rain and storms into the
area, although confidence in exact details for any rain/storms at
this time is low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR TAFs persist outside of some shallow ground fog at KTOP for the
first hour or so of the period. Kept mention as a tempo group as it
will be fairly short-lived and burn off quickly after sunrise.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer