312
FXUS63 KTOP 242040
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
240 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers, isolated thunder this evening

- Generally cooler and dry through the Thanksgiving holiday

- Still watching the pattern for next weekend with chances for
  rain and the potential for wintery precipitation

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Despite the rain and clouds, temperatures today have risen into
the low 50s across much of the forecast area this afternoon.
Elements are becoming slightly more convective as the upper low
and associated colder air aloft move into the eastern part of
the state. Have seen a few lightning strikes as well, generally
along and southeast of the turnpike. Showers exit west to east
across the area through the evening hours, with low clouds and
patchy fog lingering until morning. The next upper low over
Montana makes quick progress east southeast, with strong
northwest winds spreading across eastern Kansas by mid day. Have
gone on the higher side of forecast guidance with gusts 25 to
over 35 mph with the higher end across north central Kansas.
Highs may struggle to reach 50 near the northern border and it
will likely feel much cooler in brisk northwest winds.

The pattern settles just a bit for the mid week, with highs in
the 40s and lows in the 20s for Wednesday into Friday. Some
guidance gives some light frontogenetically forced precipitation
in central Kansas late Wednesday evening, but doesn`t look
significant or impactful at this time.

Sensible elements of the forecast become more uncertain into the
weekend, as the development of the upper pattern still have
considerable differences. As the upper high slides eastward on
Friday with some moisture return, chances for precipitation also
return, however differences on how far south the cold air
remains would have an impact on type. Current deterministic
forecast has rain chances, possibly a rain snow mix in the
north.

Differences in the evolution of the larger scale western upper
trof mean big differences in forecast solutions beyond Friday.
The GFS keeps much of the area in the warmer air and brings the
cold front through on Sunday, while the EC is faster with the
cold front and brings it through on Saturday - developing an
upper low and laying down snow to our west and north. And as
additional energy propagates over the state through the flow on
Monday, so would additional chances for precipitation into the
colder air. This will have impacts across the US on a big travel
weekend, and will continue to evaluate and message tracks and
impacts as they evolve.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Main driver this TAF cycle is ceilings. Intermittent showers and
reductions in visibility will pass the terminals through the day
before rain dissipates this evening. However cig heights
generally forecast to sink from IFR today to just into LIFR
tonight and stay there overnight. Should lift/break quickly
tomorrow as the stronger west winds and drier air move in,
generally in the 15-16z timeframe.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Craven
AVIATION...Craven