220
FXUS63 KTOP 151719
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry Sunday afternoon and evening, however cannot rule out
  an isolated storm during the late afternoon.

- Heat indices in the 99 to 102 range may create dangerously
  hot conditions Tuesday afternoon and again in the Friday-
  Saturday time frame.

- An incoming cold front and accompanied storm system increases
  strong to severe storm chances early Tuesday morning through
  late Tuesday evening. Storms may be capable of all hazards,
  including locally heavy rainfall and flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Embedded shortwave troughs within the eastern periphery of the upper
ridge axis continues to develop clusters of storms from the central
to southern plains.  Tracks of the current clusters should remain
west and south of northeast Kansas as subsident air and high clouds
build behind the departing MCS. Along with latest CAM guidance has
led to decent confidence in a dry forecast for much of Sunday into
Sunday evening. Given that profilers are uncapped by late afternoon
with ample low level moisture in place, cannot rule out a rogue
storm developing however confidence in this occurring is low. For
this evening, the upper ridge edges slightly eastward developing
another MCS further north in Nebraska into Iowa. Height rises should
steer the MCS south and east of the CWA so will maintain a dry
forecast through Monday afternoon. Similar to Sunday, any residual
outflow boundaries could become the focus for an isolated storm by
late afternoon Monday amid the moist and unstable airmass. Speed and
directional shear are also decent among profilers so any storm that
develops would be capable of large hail and damaging winds.

A more organized upper trough and deepening low pressure off western
Kansas will enter the central plains Monday evening. A large scale
MCS is likely sometime in the evening with the biggest
uncertainties in the timing of the line as it approaches northern
Kansas in the early morning to Tuesday afternoon time frame. If
activity holds off across eastern Kansas, highs are likely to reach
the lower 90s as dewpoints pool ahead of the boundary into the lower
70s.  This would translate to max heat indices in the 99 to 102
range. If storms move and/or develop during the late afternoon where
max instability exceeds 5000 J/KG and low level shear values are
perpendicular to the boundary, severe storms are expected. Given the
parameters listed and soundings exhibiting good low level shear, all
hazards would be possible. GFS and EC ensembles suggest backbuilding
of convection behind the boundary into the Tuesday overnight hours
as the boundary slows down. This could result in areas of localized
heavy rainfall and flooding.  Additional strong storms are progged
to redevelop along the front over eastern Kansas by Wednesday
afternoon. All activity clears the region Wednesday evening as high
pressure settles into place for the remainder of the week.

In terms of temps, the EFI and NAEFS are signaling anomalously warm
temperatures in the 850-700 mb range Friday and Saturday. Little
change in airmass along with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s
should create hot and humid conditions for this period. Forecast max
heat indices are generally in the low 100s for much of northeast
Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period with light
southeasterly wind and scattered CU.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Jones