639
FXUS63 KTOP 061848
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
148 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Next round for storms expected on Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall
  and flooding will be the main hazards.

- Hot and humid conditions build in by next week with temperatures in
  the low to mid 90s and heat index values pushing above 100 degrees.

- A cold front will bring relief to the heat by the end of the week
  into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite imagery along with
upper air analysis showed a weak southern stream upper low across
west TX. A more amplified upper trough was located across the
Pacific Northwest. A down stream upper ridge was located across the
central and northern Plains. An upper trough was moving east across
the northeast US.

the 18Z surface map showed light southerly winds across the CWA.
There was broken stratus along and south of I-70. The stratus will
begin to scatter out during the early afternoon hours. Surface
dewpoints were in the upper 60s to lower 70s.


This afternoon through Tonight:

The southern stream upper low will only slowly lift northeast into
OK. The better ascent will remain to our south. Given a weak CAP and
localized areas of surface convergence, there could be a few showers
and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon and extending into
the early evening hours. Nothing looks widespread for any flooding
problems across the northeast counties this afternoon and overnight.
If any pop-up storms develop, they will probably dissipate after
sunset.

Later Tonight the light rain across south central and southeast KS
may spread north with low stratus, as the ascent ahead of the upper
low begins to move farther north into KS.


Sunday through Sunday night:

The southern stream upper low across western OK, will fill and
become more of an open H5 trough as it moves east-northeast across
OK and eastern KS. Most CAMs show the stronger ascent remaining
across eastern OK, southeast KS, into western MO. The HREF shows only
a 20 to 40 percent probability of receiving a half inch of rainfall
through Sunday night, thus I don`t see any flooding problems
developing. Unless, a more mesoscale line of storms can develop. PWs
are still around 1.75" so we will need to watch any organized band
of thunderstorms developing, especially across northeast KS.

Monday through Wednesday:

The Pacific northwest H5 trough will only dig southeast into the
Great Basin and then lift northeast into central Canada. A down
stream H5 ridge will amplify across the southern and central Plains
Monday through Tuesday, then slowly shift east as an H5 trough digs
southeast across the CA coast into the southwest US.

Expect mostly dry conditions but southerly low-level winds wil
advect gulf moisture northward across the Plains. Expect hot and
humid conditions Tuesday, with highs in the lower to mid 90s and
heat indices in the 105 to 110 degree range. The mixing will be bit
deeper on Wednesday afternoon, which may keep heat indicies in the
100 to 105 degree range. Tuesday may be our first issuance of heat
advisories this year.

Wednesday night through Saturday:

The extended range models are in good agreement through the
remainder of the forecast period. The ECMWF is more progressive
lifting the southwestern US H5 trough into the northern and central
Plains Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This will bring a
surface front southeast across the CWA late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning with a chance for showers and storms along the
front Wednesday night. The front will then push southeast of the CWA
by early thursday afternoon.

The GFS is a bit slower and less amplified with the H5 trough
lifting northeast across the central Plains on Thursday. The front
will push southeast across the CWA during the afternoon hours with
thunderstorms developing along the front during peak heating, with
higher instability and increased vertical shear. If the GFS were to
verify, then there could be a few strong to severe storms Thursday
afternoon and evening.

The extended models show the front becoming stationary across the
southern Plains. The mid and upper level flow will become
northwesterly allowing minor perturbations to dig southeast across
the Plains and provide enough ascent for scatter showers and
isolated storms Friday and Sunday. Highs will cool back down into
the 80s with less humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

The stratus will eventually scatter out this afternoon and if we get
some insolation there may be some isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms around the terminals this afternoon into the early
evening. After 6Z CAM guidance show the low stratus returning with
ceilings between 600 to 1000 feet with a chance for rain showers The
low stratus wil hang around through much of Sunday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Gargan